Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Unexpected?

2018-12-07

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2018-12-07

Labor Curves
Now that the slowdown is being absorbed and even talked about openly, it will require a period of heavy CYA. This part is, or at least it has been at each of the past downturns, quite easy for its practitioners. It was all so “unexpected”, you see. Nobody could have seen it coming, therefore it just showed up out of nowhere unpredictably spoiling the heretofore unbreakable, incorruptible boom everyone was talking about just last week.

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Can Macron save his presidency? | The Economist

2018-12-06

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What began as a protest against higher taxes on diesel has turned into a revolt against France’s president, Emmanuel Macron. How he handles it will decide the rest of his presidency. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films …

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House View, December 2018

2018-12-06

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2018-12-06

MSCI China and Emerging Markets Performance, 2018
We remain neutral on global equities overall, seeing relatively limited potential for developed market stocks in particular as earnings growth declines. We favour companies with pricing power as well as measurable growth drivers and low leverage.

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The View from the Trenches of the Alternative Media

2018-12-05

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2018-12-05

What's scarce in a world awash in free content and nearly infinite entertainment content? After 3,701 posts (from May 2005 to the present), here are my observations of the Alternative Media from the muddy trenches. It's increasingly difficult to make a living creating content outside the corporate matrix.

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Charles Hugh Smith: Preventing The Final Fall Of Our Democratic Republic

2018-12-04

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Full description and comments at: https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/114587/charles-hugh-smith-preventing-final-fall-our-democratic-republic There’s mounting evidence that the Age of American Exceptionalism is grinding to an end. Demographically, in the U.S. (as well as many other developed nations), the prospects of the younger generations are substantially less than those of the Baby Boomers. The same is true socioeconomically as well;...

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How data transformed the NBA | The Economist

2018-12-04

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NBA teams are changing the way they play basketball. The Houston Rockets, who boast stars like James Harden, have used data analytics to help them become championship contenders in recent seasons. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Sponsored by DXC Technology. An invisible powerful force is lifting professional basketball to new …

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China’s Global Slump Draws Closer

2018-12-04

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2018-12-04

China Manufacturing PMI, Caixin and Non-Manufacturing PMI, May 2010 - Nov 2018
By the time things got really bad, China’s economy had already been slowing for a long time. The currency spun out of control in August 2015, and then by November the Chinese central bank was in desperation mode. The PBOC had begun to peg SHIBOR because despite so much monetary “stimulus” in rate cuts and a lower RRR banks were hoarding RMB liquidity.

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Truth Is What We Hide, Self-Serving Cover Stories Are What We Sell

2018-12-03

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2018-12-03

The fact that lies and cover stories are now the official norm only makes us love our servitude with greater devotion. We can summarize the current era in one sentence: truth is what we hide, self-serving cover stories are what we sell. Jean-Claude Juncker's famous quote captures the essence of the era: "When it becomes serious, you have to lie."

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Bearish on Fake Fixes

2018-12-02

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2018-12-02

Household Wealth by percentile
The conventional definition of a Bear is someone who expects stocks to decline. For those of us who are bearish on fake fixes, that definition doesn't apply: we aren't making guesses about future market gyrations (rip-your-face-off rallies, dizziness-inducing drops, boring melt-ups, etc.), we're focused on the impossibility of reforming or fixing a broken economic system.

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH – Why We Are Going Toward Venezuela’s Path

2018-12-01

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America Needs a New National Strategy

2018-12-01

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2018-12-01

A productive national Strategy would systemically decentralize power and capital rather than concentrate both in the hands of a self-serving elite. If you ask America's well-paid punditry to define America's National Strategy, you'll most likely get the UNESCO version: America's national strategy is to support a Liberal Global Order (LGO) of global cooperation on the environment, trade, etc. and the encouragement of democracy, a liberal order that...

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Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018

2018-11-30

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2018-11-30

Economic Growth & Investment
Is the Fed’s monetary tightening about over? Maybe, maybe not but there does seem to be some disagreement between Jerome Powell and his Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Powell said just a little over a month ago that the Fed Funds rate was still “a long way from neutral” and that the Fed may ultimately need to go past neutral.

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The true cost of fast fashion | The Economist

2018-11-29

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Millions of tonnes of clothes end up in landfill every year—it’s one of the fastest-growing categories of waste in the world. How can the fashion industry continue to grow while addressing the environmental need for people to buy fewer clothes? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films …

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The Direction Is (Globally) Clear

2018-11-29

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2018-11-29

US Composite PMI and GDP, Jul 2012 - Nov 2018
It is definitely one period that they got wrong. Still, IHS Markit’s Composite PMI for the US economy has been one of the better forward-looking indicators around. Tying to real GDP, this blend of manufacturing and services sentiment has predicted the general economic trend in the United States pretty closely. The latter half of 2015 was the big exception.

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Charles Hugh Smith On How & Why Financial Repression Continues

2018-11-29

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Click here for the full transcript: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2018/11/28/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-how-why-financial-repression-continues/

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For The First Time In 25 Years, China Has To Make A Choice Between External Stability And Growth

2018-11-28

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2018-11-28

Current account balance and forecasts 2000-2020
Back in August 2 we reported of a historic event for China's economy: for the first time in its modern history, China's current account balance for the first half of the year had turned into a deficit. And while the full year amount was likely set to revert back to a modest surplus, it was only a matter of time before one of the most unique features of China's economy - its chronic current account surplus - was gone for good.

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How could veganism change the world? | The Economist

2018-11-27

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Interest in vegan food and its associated health benefits has been booming across the rich world. A global retreat from meat could have a far-reaching environmental impact. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy By 2050 the world’s population could approach 10 billion – and around 60% more food could be needed …

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How will people travel in the future? | The Economist

2018-11-22

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From flying cars to pods that travel at over 1,000kph, revolutionary new ways to travel are being dreamed up by ambitious companies. But which pioneering visions are most likely to take off? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Hollywood movies have envisaged a future of hoverboards and flying cars – these …

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Hyderabad in 360 VR | The Economist

2018-11-22

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Hyderabad, India’s fourth biggest city, is fast becoming one of the most exciting visitor destinations in the country. Its booming tech scene is attracting global attention and transforming this ancient city into a cosmopolitan hotspot. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Discover Colombo: https://youtu.be/4COeTrjB6hA Discover Buenos Aires: https://youtu.be/q0pMg6rvc0s Discover Miami:...

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Charles Hugh Smith-Why Are so Few Americans Able to Get Ahead?

2018-11-21

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Charles Hugh Smith, author/ proprietor of the popular blog OfTwoMinds.com, talks about the current economic climate and way so few Americans are unable to get ahead.

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