Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Could impeachment benefit Donald Trump? | The Economist

2019-11-22

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The impeachment hearings have raised yet more questions about Donald Trump’s conduct in office. The Democrats are hoping impeachment will undermine support for the president, but could it have the opposite effect? Read more here: https://econ.st/2OHB5Ro Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out …

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Dollar and Equities Sink as Trade Pessimism Rises

2019-11-22

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2019-11-22

Pessimism regarding a Phase One trade deal has intensified; further muddying the waters are recent US Congressional actions. FOMC minutes contained no surprises; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November continue. South Africa is expected to cut rates by 25 bp to 6.25%. Korea reported trade data for the first twenty days of November; Indonesia kept rates steady at 5.0%, as expected.

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EM Sovereign Rating Model For Q4 2019

2019-11-22

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2019-11-22

Emerging Markets Sovereign Ratings Model Q4 2019
We have produced the following Emerging Markets (EM) ratings model to assess relative sovereign risk. An EM country’s score directly reflects its creditworthiness and underlying ability to service its external debt obligations. Each score is determined by a weighted compilation of fifteen economic and political indicators, which include external debt/GDP, short-term debt/reserves, import cover, current account/GDP, GDP growth, and budget balance.

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US-China trade war: live Q&A with The Economist

2019-11-21

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What do you want to know about the US-China trade war? Soumaya Keynes, our trade and globalisation editor and Henry Curr, our economics editor, were live to answer your questions. Here are the questions that you asked Soumaya and Henry: 0:52 – What are the challenges of covering the US-China trade war? 2:10 – Where …

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DM Equity Allocation Model For Q4 2019

2019-11-21

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2019-11-21

Global equity markets continue to power higher US-China trade tensions have eased. MSCI World made a new all-time high today near 2290 and is up 23% YTD. Our 1-rated grouping (outperformers) for Q4 2019 consists of Ireland, Sweden, Israel, Denmark, and Australia. Our 5-rated grouping (underperformers) for Q4 2019 consists of the UK, Hong Kong, Greece, Germany, and Portugal.

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Political and Social Conflict Is Accelerating: Here’s Why

2019-11-20

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2019-11-20

Macro Messages 2019
All the status quo "fixes" only hasten the collapse of the status quo. That economic, social and political conflict is accelerating is self-evident. What's open to debate are the core drivers of conflict / disorder /unraveling. Here's the core self-reinforcing dynamic in my view: 1. The status quo elites can no longer mask soaring costs of essentials nor soaring wealth / income inequality between the top .01% (Oligarchs), the top 9.99% who enrich...

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EM FX Model for Q4 2019

2019-11-20

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2019-11-20

EM FX has rallied sharply in recent weeks, helped by growing optimism that we’ve seen the worst of the US-China trade war. Given our more constructive outlook on EM, we believe MSCI EM FX should eventually test the 1657.50 high from July. We see continued divergences within the asset class. Our 1-rated (strongest fundamentals) grouping for Q4 2019 consists of TWD, THB, PHP, CNY, and KRW.

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Dollar Stabilizes as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

2019-11-19

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2019-11-19

Press reports suggest that the mood in Beijing is pessimistic after President Trump pushed back against tariff rollbacks. Fed Chair Powell met with President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin yesterday. Hungary is expected to keep rates steady; the deadline to form a government in Israel is fast approaching. RBA released dovish minutes from its November policy meeting.

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If Not-QE Is QE, then is Not-a-Blowoff-Top a Blowoff Top?

2019-11-19

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2019-11-19

Fed balance sheet 2018-2019
Can $300 billion, or $600 billion, or even $1 trillion continue to prop up an increasingly risk-riddled, fragile $330 trillion global bubble in overvalued assets? When is "Not-QE" QE? When Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell declares QE is not QE. We can constructively recall the story that Abraham Lincoln famously recounted in 1862: 'If I should call a sheep's tail a leg, how many legs would it have?'

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All-Stars #78 Jeff Snider : Market complacency is misplaced!

2019-11-18

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Please visit our website www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials.

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How modern families increase social inequality | The Economist

2019-11-18

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Modern families with two working adults are richer than those with a single breadwinner, and can afford to take a different approach to parenting. This is exacerbating inequality between rich and poor families. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy The family has always been a central building block of society. But …

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-11-18

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2019-11-18

EM FX was mostly weaker last week due to doubts about a Phase One trade deal between the US and China. Those talks continue this week and while we expect a deal to be struck, there is likely to be a lot of last minute posturing that will likely keep markets volatile over the short-run. In the meantime, investors need to beware of idiosyncratic country risk within EM.

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QE’s and Rate Cuts: Two Very Different Sets of Sentiment Drawn From Them

2019-11-17

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2019-11-17

IFO World Economic Climate Index, 2007-2019
The stock market’s dichotomy grows ever wider. On the one side, record high prices which are being set by the expectations of a trade deal plus renewed worldwide “stimulus.” Sure, officials everywhere were late to see the downturn coming, but they’ve since woken up and went to work.

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Emerging Market Risk Map

2019-11-15

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2019-11-15

BBH Risk MingMap
With year-end upon us, we review some of the key risks to EM assets and how we think they progress from here. In short, the two most significant downside risks would be a decisive improvement in Elizabeth Warren’s polling figures and an upset in the US-China trade negotiations.

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America v China: why the trade war won’t end soon | The Economist

2019-11-14

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America and China are edging closer to signing a deal in the trade war. But that won’t mark the end—the issues at the heart of the conflict will be very difficult to resolve. Read more here: https://econ.st/2qQItl6 Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy The world’s leading superpowers are locking horns. Over …

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Stock Market Cheerleading: Why Do We Celebrate the Super-Rich Getting Richer?

2019-11-14

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2019-11-14

It's not too difficult to predict a political rebellion against the machinery of soaring wealth and income inequality. The one constant across the media-political spectrum is an unblinking focus on the stock market as a barometer of the national economy: every major media outlet from the New York Times to Fox News prominently displays stock market action, and TV news anchors' expressions reflect the media's emotional promotion of the market as the...

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Now That We’ve Incentivized Sociopaths–Guess What Happens Next

2019-11-13

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2019-11-13

As long as central banks create and distribute trillions in conscience-free credit to conscience-free financiers and corporations, the incentives for sociopathy only increase. "Sociopath" is a word we now encounter regularly in the mainstream media, but what does it mean? Here is a list of 16 traits, many of which are visible in lionized corporate and political leaders and entrepreneurs.

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Is America right to fear Huawei? | The Economist

2019-11-12

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America worries that Huawei, China’s telecoms giant, spies on behalf of its government and threatens Western interests. Such concerns are not just about America’s security, but also its insecurity. Read more here: https://econ.st/2O9kgyc Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Rarely does a country go to war with a private company. But …

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Jeff Snider: “Global Growth Slowing & The U.S. Dollar Liquidity Shortage” (Hedgeye Investing Summit)

2019-11-12

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***This webcast originally aired live at the Hedgeye Investing Summit on Hedgeye.com on October 15, 2019*** Get access to Hedgeye's world-class investing research here: https://hedgeye.com/research

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For Labor And Recession, The Bad One

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Costs 1983-2019
There’s a couple of different ways that Unit Labor Costs can rise. Or even surge. The first is the good way, the one we all want to see because it is consistent with the idea of an economy that is actually booming. If workers have become truly scarce as macro forces sustain actual growth such that all labor market slack is absorbed, then businesses have to compete for them bidding up the price of marginal labor.

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