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Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-01-13

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2020-01-13

EM has been able to get some traction as markets basically shrugged off the risk-off sentiment after the Iran attacks.  This week’s planned signing of the Phase One trade deal should help boost EM further, but we remain cautious.  The Iran situation is by no means solved, and we see periodic bouts of risk-off sentiment coming from smaller skirmishes. 

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Global Headwinds and Disinflationary Pressures

2020-01-11

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2020-01-11

Mexican Economy, 2006-2019
I’m going to go back to Mexico for the third day in a row. First it was imports (meaning Mexico’s exports) then automobile manufacturing and now Industrial Production. I’ll probably come back to this tomorrow when INEGI updates that last number for November 2019. For now, through October will do just fine, especially in light of where automobile production is headed (ICYMI, off the bottom of the charts).

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The Fed Can’t Reverse the Decline of Financialization and Globalization

2020-01-10

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2020-01-10

Student Loans Owned and Securitized, 2008-2018
The global economy and financial system are both running on the last toxic fumes of financialization and globalization. For two generations, globalization and financialization have been the two engines of global growth and soaring assets. Globalization can mean many things, but its beating heart is the arbitraging of the labor of the powerless, and commodity, environmental and tax costs by the powerful to increase their profits and wealth.

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Dollar Builds on Gains as Iran Tensions Ease

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

Markets have reacted positively to President Trump’s press conference yesterday, while the dollar continues to gain traction. The North American session is quiet in terms of US data. Mexico reports December CPI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 2.25%. German November IP was slightly better than expected but still tepid; sterling took a hit on dovish comments by outgoing BOE Governor Carney.

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The Real Trade Dilemma

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

US Imports of Goods, NSA 2016-2019
When I write that there are no winners around the world, what I mean is more comprehensive than just the trade wars. On that one narrow account, of course there are winners and losers. The Chinese are big losers, as the Census Bureau numbers plainly show (as well as China’s own). But even the winners of the trade wars find themselves wondering where all the spoils are.

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More Trends That Ended 2019 The Wrong Way

2020-01-08

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2020-01-08

US Trade, SA 2016-2019
Auto sales in 2019 ended on a skid. Still, the year as a whole wasn’t nearly as bad as many had feared. Last year got off on the wrong foot in the aftermath of 2018’s landmine, with auto sales like consumer spending down pretty sharply to begin it. Spending did rebound in mid-year if only somewhat, enough, though, to add a little more to the worst-is-behind-us narrative which finished off 2019.

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Manufacturing Clears Up Bond Yields

2020-01-07

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2020-01-07

Federal Reserve Regional Manu. PMI, 2016-2019
Yesterday, IHS Markit reported that the manufacturing turnaround its data has been suggesting stalled. After its flash manufacturing PMI had fallen below 50 several times during last summer (only to be revised to slightly above 50 every time the complete survey results were tabulated), beginning in September 2019 the index staged a rebound jumping first to 51.1 in that month.

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WTF: What The Fed?! – Mike Maloney, Chris Martenson, Grant Williams, Charles Hugh Smith, A. Taggart

2020-01-06

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Watch the full event free at https://www.peakprosperity.com/wtf-what-the-fed/ “The plain truth is… we are in the middle of QE4 right now” – Grant Williams during WTF: What the Fed. The Federal Reserve looks to be pumping a healthy patient of full of drugs… Something is not adding up. And Mike Maloney agrees… He recently recorded a …

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Is This “The Top”?

2020-01-06

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2020-01-06

Apple, Operating income, 2006-2019
Parabolic moves end when the confidence that the parabolic move can't end becomes the consensus. The consensus seems to be that the stock market is on its way to much higher levels, and soon. The near-term targets for the S&P 500 (SPX, currently around 3,235) range from 3,500 to 4,000, with longer-term targets reaching "the sky's the limit."

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-01-06

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2020-01-06

While the global economic backdrop remains favorable for EM, rising geopolitical risks will be a growing headwind. The EM VIX surged above 18% Friday as Iran tensions escalated, the highest since early December. With these tensions likely to persist, EM may remain under some pressure for the time being. High oil prices are positive for the exporters in Latin America and the Middle East but negative for the importers in Asia and Eastern Europe.

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2019: The Year of Repo

2020-01-04

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2020-01-04

Fed Balance Sheet: Reserve Balances, 2008-2019
The year 2019 should be remembered as the year of repo. In finance, what happened in September was the most memorable occurrence of the last few years. Rate cuts were a strong contender, the first in over a decade, as was overseas turmoil. Both of those, however, stemmed from the same thing behind repo, a reminder that September’s repo rumble simply punctuated.

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The Two Charts You Need to Ignore or Rationalize Away in 2020 (Unless You’re a Bear)

2020-01-03

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2020-01-03

Fed monthly vs US Stock Market
If you believe you've front-run the herd, you're now in mid-air along with the rest of the herd that has thundered off the cliff. We're awash in financial charts, but only a few crystallize an entire year. Here are the two charts that sum up everything you need to know about the stock market in 2020.

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH – Huge Globalization Cycle Is Ending

2020-01-02

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What does gun violence in America look like? | The Economist

2020-01-02

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Mass shootings dominate the gun-violence debate in America, even though they account for less than 0.3% of gun-deaths. At The Economist’s Open Future festival in Chicago three leading campaigners against gun violence explored the problem and what should be done to stop it. Read more here: https://econ.st/37wOzH4 Click here to subscribe to The Economist on …

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The Fed’s “Not-QE” and the $33 Trillion Stock Market in Three Charts

2020-01-02

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2020-01-02

U.S. Stock Market
One day the stock market 'falcon' will no longer hear the Fed 'falconer', and the Pavlovian magical thinking will break down as the market goes bidless. The past decade has shown that when the Federal Reserve creates trillions of dollars out of thin air (QE), U.S. stocks rise accordingly. The correlation is very nearly perfect.

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Inflation Fairy Tale: Why It’s Deflation We Should Worry About (w/ Steven Van Metre & Jeff Snider)

2020-01-01

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Is inflation on the horizon? Should bank reserve balances stored with the Federal Reserve count as "money"? According to Jeffrey Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investment Partners, and Steven Van Metre, macro fund manager and founder of Portfolio Shield, the answer to these questions is a resounding "no." Drawing upon a data ranging from Treasury auction sales to Eurodollar futures curves, van Metre and Snider explain why low yields...

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X22Report: The People Are Waking Up, The Elite Are No Longer In Control:Charles Hugh Smith 12-31-19

2020-01-01

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czEeVi1Laec

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A Sour End To The 2010’s Doesn’t Have To Spoil The Entire 2020’s

2020-01-01

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2020-01-01

China GDP, 2011-2019
It has been perhaps the most astonishing divergence in the first two decades of 21st century history. In late 2017, Western economic officials (mostly central bankers) were taking their victory laps. They took great pains to tell the world it was due to their profound wisdom, deep courage, and, most of all, determined patience, that they had been able to see their policies through to the light of day (no thanks to voters around the world).

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The People Are Waking Up, The Elite Are No Longer In Control:Charles Hugh Smith

2020-01-01

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Prepare Today And Save $70 On A 2-Week Emergency Food Kit My Patriot Supply http://preparewithx22.com Today’s Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Website: Of Two Minds http://oftwominds.com Most of artwork that are included with these videos have been created by X22 Report and they are used as a representation of the subject matter. The representative artwork included …

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The Hour Is Getting Late

2019-12-31

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2019-12-31

Total Assets, 2015-2019
After 11 years of "the Fed is the market" expansion, the Fed has now reduced its bloated balance sheet by 6.7%. This is normal, right? So here we are in Year 11 of the longest economic expansion/ stock market bubble in recent history, and by any measure, the hour is getting late, to quote Mr. Dylan: So let us not talk falsely nowthe hour is getting lateBob Dylan, "All Along the Watchtower"

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