Category Archive: 5.) Emerging Markets

Main Author Win Thin
Win Thin
Win Thin is a senior currency strategist with over fifteen years of investment experience. He has a broad international background with a special interest in developing markets. Prior to joining BBH in June 2007, he founded Mandalay Advisors, an independent research firm that provided sovereign emerging market analysis to institutional investors. He received an MA from Georgetown University in 1985 and a B.A. from Brandeis University 1983. Feel free to contact the Zurich office of BBH
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Latin America – Seven Ugly Sisters in Deep Political Trouble

2016-03-24

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2016-03-24

Get beyond endless Latin American headlines burning column inches and you come to far broader strategic conclusion: The seven ‘ugly Latino sisters’, namely Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Colombia, Mexico and Argentina are all deep political trouble from collapsed benchmark prices.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-03-20

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2016-03-20

EM ended the week on a mixed note after posting strong post-FOMC gains. The bounce in risk seems likely to continue this week, with little on the horizon to derail it. Specific country risk remains in play, however, with heightened political concerns in Brazil and South Africa. Taiwan reports February export orders Monday, which are …

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Weekly Emerging Markets: What has Changed?

2016-03-18

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2016-03-18

China press is reporting that policymakers are drafting rules for a so-called Tobin tax on yuan transactions.  This would seem to go against China’s efforts at making the yuan more accessible and liquid.  While it could deter speculative activity, th...

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2016-03-13

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2016-03-13

EM enjoyed an extended rally last week, and it should carry over to the early part of the week. The Wednesday FOMC meeting poses a risk to EM, especially if markets continue to price in a more hawkish Fed. The dot plots and press conference will be very important. BOE and the Norges Bank also … Continue reading »

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Emerging Markets Preview: Week Ahead

2016-03-07

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2016-03-07

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)Risk sentiment ended last week on a strong note, and that should carry over into this week.  The global liquidity backdrop remains positive for EM, with the ECB widely expected to add more stimulus on Thursday.  I...

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-03-04

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2016-03-04

In the EM equity space, Brazil (+17.8%), Singapore (+7.1%), and India (+6.4%) have outperformed this week, while Qatar (+0.6%), Poland (+1.1%), and Malaysia (+1.7%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 6.8% this week whil...

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Revolutionary Guards: The Way of the Iranian Future

2016-03-03

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2016-03-03

Iranian elections have supposedly put a very nice ‘moderate’ spin on Iranian politics in parliamentary ranks, and more importantly, Assembly of Experts composition. While it would be churlish to deny, it represents a significant step forward for Pres...

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Emerging Market Preview, First Week of March

2016-02-29

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2016-02-29

  EM ended last week on a soft note, due to a variety of both external and internal factors.  Firm US data continue to support our call for resumed Fed tightening, and this gave the dollar a bit of a bid.  With the dollar gaining against the majors, this spilled over into generalized dollar gains … Continue reading »

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Weekly Emerging Markets: What has Changed?

2016-02-26

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2016-02-26

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2016-02-22

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2016-02-22

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) We think that it’s still too early to say whether Friday's price action was simply profit-taking ahead of the weekend, or the resumption of overall negative market sentiment.  We think the global backdrop rem...

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Weekly Emerging Markets: What has Changed?

2016-02-12

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2016-02-12

In the EM equity space, Colombia (+0.3%), Chile (+0.2%), and Poland (-0.6%) have outperformed this week, while India (-6.6%), Czech Republic (-5.5%), and Hong Kong (-5.0%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM fell -3.9% this w...

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-02-08

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2016-02-08

Czech Republic reported disappointing December industrial (0.7 vs 5.9% y/y consensus).  It reported a small trade surplus rather than the expected deficit.  It will report January CPI on Friday, and is expected to rise 0.5% y/y vs. 0.1% in December. ...

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-02-05

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2016-02-05

In the EM equity space, UAE (+6.2%), Indonesia (+4.0%), and Qatar (+1.8%) have outperformed this week, while Hong Kong (-2.0%), Czech Republic (-1.9%), and Hungary (-1.2%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM fell -0.1% this w...

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2016-02-01

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2016-02-01

As we suspected, the current EM bounce still has some legs.  The BOJ’s surprise easing helped EM and risk end on last week on a strong note, and we expect that to carry over into this week.  Within EM, we will start to see the first readings for January.     The biggest risk perhaps is the … Continue reading »

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2016-01-25

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2016-01-25

Singapore reports December CPI Monday, and is expected at -0.7% y/y vs. -0.8% in November.  It then reports December IP Tuesday, and is expected at -6.8% y/y vs. -5.5% in November.  Q4 unemployment will be reported Thursday.  With deflation risks per...

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2015-11-27

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2015-11-27

(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) 1) Mauricio Macri, the mayor of Buenos Aires, won the Argentine presidential election with 52% of vote  2) The latest political developments in Brazil rocked asset prices  3) The Brazilian cent...

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Stock Indices and Exposure to Emerging Markets

ftse evenues em
Monetary policy is and remains tight in Emerging Markets, in particular since many of their currencies collapsed in summer 2013. This created inflation and led to lower spending. We want to find out which stock indices in the developed world have which exposure to Emerging Markets.

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Emerging Markets and Global Oil Demand



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