Category Archive: 5.) Brown Brothers Harriman

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Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Impulses Return

2019-09-25

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2019-09-25

Markets have moved into risk-off mode from a confluence of events emanating from the US. Speaker of the House Pelosi formally launched a formal impeachment inquiry; DOJ inserted itself into Trump’s fight with New York state. Trump’s speech to the UN General Assembly yesterday was noteworthy for its belligerence.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-09-22

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2019-09-22

We think the Fed has signaled that the bar to another cut is high.  Unless the US data weakens considerably, we see rates on hold for now and this means the liquidity story for EM has worsened.  Elsewhere, US-China trade talks appear to be going nowhere.  With no end in sight to the trade war, we remain negative on EM.

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Dollar Mixed on Central Bank Thursday

2019-09-20

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2019-09-20

As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bp; the dollar firmed after the decision but has since given back some gains. During the North American session, there will be a fair amount of US data. BOE is expected to keep rates steady; UK reported August retail sales. SNB and BOJ kept rates steady, as expected; Norges Bank unexpectedly hiked 25 bp.

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Some Thoughts on the Fed and Oil Shocks

2019-09-18

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2019-09-18

U.S. GDP Growth, Q1 1973-Q1 1982
Oil prices have spiked after the weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities.  Will it impact the Fed tomorrow?  No.  We compare the current (but still unfolding) situation to past oil shocks from the 1970s and discuss the policy responses taken.  

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Dollar Mixed, Oil Spikes as Markets Digest Saudi Attack

2019-09-16

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2019-09-16

The weekend bombing of Saudi oil facilities continue to reverberate across global markets. The currencies of the oil producing nations are likely to outperform near-term. US rates continue to adjust ahead of the FOMC. UK Prime Minister Johnson is in Luxembourg today to meet with EC President Juncker. China reported weak August IP and retail sales.

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Dollar Soft as Risk Sentiment Stoked Ahead of US Retail Sales

2019-09-15

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2019-09-15

US-China relations appear to be thawing. Trading was volatile after the ECB decision; we are still dollar bulls. EM has benefitted from the shift in the global backdrop this week. The US data highlight is August retail sales. Vietnam cut rates 25 bp to 6.0%; Turkey reported July current account and IP.

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Turkey Monetary Policy Planting Seeds of Future Crisis

2019-09-14

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2019-09-14

Turkey central bank meets September 12 and is expected to cut rates 275 bp.  With Erdogan talking about single digit rates and inflation, it’s clear that rates are headed significantly lower.  At some point soon, we think the risk/reward for investing in Turkey will send investors fleeing for the exits.POLITICAL OUTLOOK President Erdogan sacked central bank Governor Murat Cetinkaya on July 6, ostensibly for not cutting rates quickly enough.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-09-09

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2019-09-09

Despite some positive developments last week, we think the three key issues for risk assets have not been resolved yet.  Hong Kong protests continue, while reports suggest the US and China remain far apart.  Even Brexit has likely been given only a three month reprieve.  We remain negative on EM until these key issues have been ultimately resolved.

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DM Equity Allocation Model For Q3 2019

2019-08-25

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2019-08-25

We recently introduced our Developed Markets (DM) Equity Allocation model. Building on the success of our EM model, this new framework extends our analysis to cover 24 DM equity markets. Our analysis is meant to assist global equity investors in assessing relative sovereign risk and optimal asset allocation across countries within the DM universe.

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Dollar Firm Ahead of Jackson Hole

2019-08-22

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2019-08-22

FOMC minutes were not as dovish as many had hoped; bond and equity markets are set up for a big reset. Today sees the start of the annual Fed symposium in Jackson Hole; the US reports a slew of data. Markit flash eurozone August PMI readings were reported; ECB publishes the account of its July 25 meeting.

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