Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Swiss National Bank Support Steadies Market as ECB Faces Difficult Choice

2023-03-16

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2023-03-16

Overview: The pendulum of market psychology is swinging dramatically. Amid the US banking crisis, Credit Suisse's long-running pressures percolated back to top-of-mind, sending ripples through the capital markets, trigging a sharp slide in the euro. The SNB support is helping the markets calm today. The odds of a 50 bp hike by the ECB today have been cut to about 50% compared with a nearly 100% a week ago. The market has about a 66% chance of a 25...

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All the balls are in the air now. Yields move lower. Stocks lower. USD higher…mostly

2023-03-15

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All the risk balls are in the air now. Yields are lower. Stocks are lower. The US dollars is mostly higher.  In the morning Forex technical report, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCHF. The USD is moving the most versus the EUR which is plummeting and looking toward the 100 day moving average. The GBPUSD is down but the declines are more contained. The USD is lower vs the JPY as the USDJPY reacts to lower rates. The USDCHF is...

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Investor Anxiety Continues to Run High even If More Comfortable ECB 50 BP Tomorrow and 25 bp Next Week by the Fed

2023-03-15

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2023-03-15

Overview: The capital markets remain unsettled. Asia-Pacific bourses rose, but European markets are sharply lower, with the Stoxx 600 off 1.3%, giving back the lion's share of yesterday's gains and US equity futures are lower. Benchmark 10-year yields are off 3-9 bp in Europe, with widening core-periphery yields. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury is off a dozen basis points to about 3.56%. Two-year yields are also sharply lower, led by the 15-16...

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Yields are up, but they are down more

2023-03-14

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In the morning forex technical report, Greg Michalowski looks to make sense technically for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

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Does the US Inflation Report Matter or Has it Been Superseded by Deflationary Forces of a Financial Crisis?

2023-03-14

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2023-03-14

Overview: The dramatic shift in expectations for Fed policy is a potent shock, with reverberations throughout the capital markets.  The business press was full of accounts putting the nearly 50 bp decline in the US two-year note in an historical perspective. Yesterday, it fell by 61 bp as the market continued to unwind Fed hikes and reprice the chances of a cut as early as Q2. While the poorly received bill auctions suggests not significant deposit...

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What are some technical levels in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD?

2023-03-13

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As the markets continue to be driven by fundamental events, it's essential to understand the technical levels that can help guide trading decisions. In this weekly Forex technical analysis, I explore the key support and resistance levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, and discuss the potential biases for each currency pair.

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US Banking Crisis Swamps Other Considerations

2023-03-13

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2023-03-13

Overview:  The US banking crisis has overwhelmed other market drivers. The strong measures announced as Asia Pacific trading got under way was embraced by the market even though moral hazard issues and gaps in the Dodd-Frank regulatory framework were exposed. The dollar is trading heavily. The prospect of a 50 bp Fed hike next week has evaporated and some are doubting that a 25 bp increase will be delivered. Rate hike expectations for the ECB this...

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Dow Jones technical analysis: Targeting a contrarian long.

2023-03-12

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I'm letting others follow the news and seeking to target a contrarian Long on the Dow Jones futures, conditional to price action on a lower timeframe. I explain why and where in the video. Some technical analyses may have future updates in their comments sections. See https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/dow-jones-technical-analysis-at-forex-live-contrarian-long-opportunity-for-traders/ for this one. Visit ForexLive.com for additional...

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Market Prices in a Fed Cut in Q4 Ahead of CPI, While ECB to may Deliver a 50 bp Hawkish Hike

2023-03-11

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2023-03-11

Three macro events highlight the week ahead. The US February CPI will be reported on March 14. The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt will deliver the spring budget on March 15. The ECB meets the following day. A 50 bp hike is discounted not only for this meeting, but that is the bias for the May meeting as well. It seems that US interest rate adjustment that began early February (jobs data and strong gains in the service ISM) and helped fuel...

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The US jobs report is out, the USD is down. It more than jobs as banking concerns increase

2023-03-10

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In times of uncertainty, the charts help to guide the storylines. Find out the key levels in play now for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD

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Concerns Over US Banks Rival Today’s Jobs Report

2023-03-10

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2023-03-10

Overview: The unexpectedly large rise in US weekly jobless claims, the largest since the end of last September and concerns about the impact of the sharp rise in interest rates on the liquidity and value of assets (bonds) owned by small and medium-sized banks saw the market unwind the effect of Fed Chair Powell's comments. The yield on the US two-year note slumped almost 20 bp to 4.87% yesterday and fell to 4.75% today before stabilizing (~4.82%)....

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S&P 500 technical analysis for 10 March, 2023

2023-03-10

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CORECTION: There is a mistake in the March 3rd label on the video. This is an update for 10 March. In this video, we provide an update regarding the mistake in the label for our previous video. We then focus on the area of double support and its significance for swing and buy-and-hold traders. We outline the line in the sand for a bullish reversal and potential bearish trends and provide our thoughts on the current market conditions.

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S&P 500 technical analysis and key price areas bulls must protect to maintain their premise.

2023-03-09

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As I mentioned in previous videos, I will be maintaining a bullish outlook and seeking a bounce, but changing my mind ONLY IF 2 consecutive daily candles CLOSE below 3900. We are not there yet, so I am still targeting a bullish reversal and will be watching the prices mentioned in the video. Trade the S&P 500 at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

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One more day. The US jobs report is one more day away. What about today?

2023-03-09

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Get the latest forex technical report before the US jobs report release. In this video, we take a quick look at the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD currency pairs and outline the levels to watch for as the clock ticks closer to the report. Stay informed and make informed trading decisions.

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Yen Jumps Despite Poor GDP Ahead of Tomorrow’s BOJ Outcome

2023-03-09

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2023-03-09

Overview: Seeing the drama he inspired on Tuesday, the Fed chair tried soft-pedaling the idea that he was signaling a 50 bp hike in March. The market did not buy it. And the odds, discounted by the Fed funds futures rose a little above 70% from about 62% at Tuesday's close. The two-year note yield solidified its foothold above the 5% mark. With the Bank of Canada confirming its pause, the Reserve Bank of Australia does not seem that far behind, and...

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Technical analysis of TSLA, HD, PYPL: Large block trades made by institutions (last 7 days)

2023-03-09

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Discover how to identify bullish or negative signals in the market by monitoring large block trades made by institutions in the options market. In this video, we discuss the current leaderboard for the last 7 days and reveal interesting trends in options trading. We also conduct a technical analysis of the top 3 stocks: Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA), Home Depot Inc. (HD), and Paypal Holdings Inc. (PYPL). Learn about potential entry and exit points for...

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The effective technical analysis tip for CRM, INTU and CDNS (when to buy)

2023-03-09

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Discover the top three software/application industry stocks worth considering for investment. In this video, we analyze Salesforce, Intuit, and Cadence Design Systems, three companies with strong market capitalization, positive earnings growth, and potential for long-term growth. Plus, we provide an effective technical analysis tip to help investors make informed investment decisions. Watch the video now!

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S&P 500 technical analysis: Bulls protecting the PoC

2023-03-09

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Join me in this video as we discuss the current market sentiment, which appears to be bearish, and my bullish outlook. We'll be keeping an eye on the key levels to watch for the S&P 500, with a focus on the level at 3925, which will indicate a trend reversal if 2 consecutive daily candles close below it. However, as long as we stay above the point of control (PoC), I'm still bullish and targeting 4150 by the end of the month.

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The day after. The Fed Chair sent the USD higher yesterday. What are the charts saying?

2023-03-08

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In this trading update, we analyze the recent moves in the USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD in early US trading. The USDJPY tests a key corrective level, while the EURUSD and GBPUSD show modest moves to the upside but remain below key targets. Meanwhile, the USDCAD keeps its gains as the Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged.

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Powell Sends the Two-Year Yield above 5% and Ignites Powerful Dollar Rally

2023-03-08

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2023-03-08

Overview:  Federal Reserve Chair Powell's comments to the Senate Banking Committee were seen as hawkish by the market, even though it has been clear to most observers that the 5.10% median terminal rate that the Fed projected in December would be increased. Also, it seemed well appreciated a few Fed officials support a 50 bp hike at the February 1 FOMC meeting, two days before a "hot" jobs report that showed over 500k jobs were filled. It...

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