Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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The Dollar Jumps Back

2023-03-24

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2023-03-24

Overview: The pendulum of market expectations has swung dramatically and now looks for 100 bp cut in the Fed funds target this year. That seems extreme. At the same time, the dollar's downside momentum has stalled, suggesting that the dollar may recover some of the ground lost recently as the interest rate leg was knocked out from beneath it. The euro twice in the past two days pushed through $1.09 only to be turned away. Similarly, sterling pushed...

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The Day After. What are the technicals in the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD saying now?ForexLive Video

2023-03-23

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In this video, we'll be discussing the recent Fed rate hike of 25 basis points and how it has affected the USD. Despite the rate increase, the USD has moved lower. We'll analyze the technical indicators for three major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, and provide insights into what they're telling us about market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.

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Market Hears Dovish Fed Hike and Sells Dollars

2023-03-23

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2023-03-23

Overview:  The dollar remains under pressure following the Federal Reserve's rate hike. The market thinks it heard that the Fed was done hiking, even though Fed Chair Powell held out the possibility that "some additional firming may be necessary."  The Norwegian krone is the strongest of the G10 currencies today, up more than 1%, spurred by a 25 bp hike and a commitment to do more. The Dollar Index briefly traded below 102.00 for the...

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Tough Fed Decisions

2023-03-22

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2023-03-22

Overview: The market has concluded that the Fed will hike rates today. The US two-year yield has risen from about 3.63% at Monday's lows almost 4.20% yesterday. It needs to rise to 4.35% to recover half of its decline since March 8 but has come back softer today. Meanwhile, the banking crisis continues to ease, and Europe's Stoxx 600 bank index is up 1.5%, its third consecutive advance. The US KBW bank index rallied almost 5% yesterday. Still,...

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Risk on sentiment in the EUR to start the day one day before the FOMC rate decision

2023-03-21

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Join us for this Forex market analysis update one day before the FOMC announcement. As banking fears are abating, the EUR is moving higher against the USD, while the GBP is moving lower. At the same time, the USDJPY is showing an upward trend as expectations focus on higher rates. But what do the charts say? In this session, we'll analyze the latest charts and discuss potential trading opportunities based on technical analysis. Whether you're a...

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Banking Stress Eases

2023-03-21

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2023-03-21

Overview: The banking crisis is ebbing. The Bank of England and European Central Bank assured investors that the AT1 bonds are senior to equity claims, and Switzerland is a unique case. Bank share indices in the Europe and the US rose yesterday, even though the shares of First Republic Bank fell by 47% yesterday. The $123-stock at the end of last month reached almost $11 yesterday. It is trading around $14.75 pre-market. Global equities are...

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Terms of UBS Acquisition Wipes out Additional Tier 1 Capital and Spurs Fresh Concerns

2023-03-20

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2023-03-20

Overview:  UBS takeover of Credit Suisse, the sale of Signature bank assets, and the daily dollar swaps could have helped stabilize the budding banking crisis. However, the wipeout of the additional tier 1 capital cushion (16 bln Swiss francs) at Credit Suisse has raised concern about the vulnerability of other such assets, which post-GFC is a $275 bln market in Europe. Asia Pacific equities was a sea of red, led by a 2.65% drop in the Hang Seng...

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What levels will be key as the market prepare for the FOMC rate decision

2023-03-20

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The trading week is underway. What technical levels are in play.

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The quiet Fed is ready to speak

2023-03-20

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While the expectations for the Fed was turned upside down, the Fed was in a quiet period, where not a word was said. On Wednesday, the Fed will be ready to speak when they announce their rate decision. Has the market gone too far, during the Feds silence? Much will depend on if the Fed will take the ECB approach and address financial fires and monetary policy with different tools.

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Fed interest rate decision with technical analysis and forecast

2023-03-19

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See more at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/fed-interest-rate-decision-with-technical-analysis-and-forecast/

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FOMC and BOE Meet As Investors are Not Persuaded that Efforts to Contain the Financial Crisis are Sufficient

2023-03-18

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2023-03-18

It was widely understood that the Federal Reserve would raise rates until one of three things took place: inflation was clearly on course to return to the target, the labor market would weaken precipitously, or systemic stress threatened. At the same time, the shocks we have had to cope with, Covid, supply chains, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine were commonly cited, and the. The re-pricing of assets as interest rates began normalizing may have...

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Fragile Calm to End the Volatile Week even with the Quadruple Expirations

2023-03-17

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2023-03-17

Overview: The support for First Republic Bank shown by a consortium of US banks by shifting $30 bln of deposits is helping break the financial anxiety that has gripped the market for more than a week. The liquidity provisions for Credit Suisse by the Swiss National Bank also are contributing to improved sentiment. The Fed's balance sheet expanded sharply last week as the bridge banks were extended credit to help the unwind of SVB and Signature...

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Swiss National Bank Support Steadies Market as ECB Faces Difficult Choice

2023-03-16

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2023-03-16

Overview: The pendulum of market psychology is swinging dramatically. Amid the US banking crisis, Credit Suisse's long-running pressures percolated back to top-of-mind, sending ripples through the capital markets, trigging a sharp slide in the euro. The SNB support is helping the markets calm today. The odds of a 50 bp hike by the ECB today have been cut to about 50% compared with a nearly 100% a week ago. The market has about a 66% chance of a 25...

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All the balls are in the air now. Yields move lower. Stocks lower. USD higher…mostly

2023-03-15

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All the risk balls are in the air now. Yields are lower. Stocks are lower. The US dollars is mostly higher.  In the morning Forex technical report, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCHF. The USD is moving the most versus the EUR which is plummeting and looking toward the 100 day moving average. The GBPUSD is down but the declines are more contained. The USD is lower vs the JPY as the USDJPY reacts to lower rates. The USDCHF is...

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Investor Anxiety Continues to Run High even If More Comfortable ECB 50 BP Tomorrow and 25 bp Next Week by the Fed

2023-03-15

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2023-03-15

Overview: The capital markets remain unsettled. Asia-Pacific bourses rose, but European markets are sharply lower, with the Stoxx 600 off 1.3%, giving back the lion's share of yesterday's gains and US equity futures are lower. Benchmark 10-year yields are off 3-9 bp in Europe, with widening core-periphery yields. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury is off a dozen basis points to about 3.56%. Two-year yields are also sharply lower, led by the 15-16...

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Yields are up, but they are down more

2023-03-14

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In the morning forex technical report, Greg Michalowski looks to make sense technically for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

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Does the US Inflation Report Matter or Has it Been Superseded by Deflationary Forces of a Financial Crisis?

2023-03-14

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2023-03-14

Overview: The dramatic shift in expectations for Fed policy is a potent shock, with reverberations throughout the capital markets.  The business press was full of accounts putting the nearly 50 bp decline in the US two-year note in an historical perspective. Yesterday, it fell by 61 bp as the market continued to unwind Fed hikes and reprice the chances of a cut as early as Q2. While the poorly received bill auctions suggests not significant deposit...

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What are some technical levels in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD?

2023-03-13

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As the markets continue to be driven by fundamental events, it's essential to understand the technical levels that can help guide trading decisions. In this weekly Forex technical analysis, I explore the key support and resistance levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, and discuss the potential biases for each currency pair.

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US Banking Crisis Swamps Other Considerations

2023-03-13

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2023-03-13

Overview:  The US banking crisis has overwhelmed other market drivers. The strong measures announced as Asia Pacific trading got under way was embraced by the market even though moral hazard issues and gaps in the Dodd-Frank regulatory framework were exposed. The dollar is trading heavily. The prospect of a 50 bp Fed hike next week has evaporated and some are doubting that a 25 bp increase will be delivered. Rate hike expectations for the ECB this...

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Dow Jones technical analysis: Targeting a contrarian long.

2023-03-12

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I'm letting others follow the news and seeking to target a contrarian Long on the Dow Jones futures, conditional to price action on a lower timeframe. I explain why and where in the video. Some technical analyses may have future updates in their comments sections. See https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/dow-jones-technical-analysis-at-forex-live-contrarian-long-opportunity-for-traders/ for this one. Visit ForexLive.com for additional...

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