Category Archive: FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He is Global Head of Currency Strategy of Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH). He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. He regularly appears on CNBC and has spoken for the Foreign Policy Association. In addition to being quoted in the financial press daily, Chandler has been published in the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, and the Washington Post. BBH provides specialist services and innovative solutions to many Swiss asset managers that include a global custody network of close to 100 markets, accounting, administration, securities lending, foreign exchange, cash management and brokerage services. Feel free to contact the Zurich office of BBH

FX Daily, May 25: Euro Strength more than Dollar Weakness

The Dollar Index is heavy, just above the lows set earlier this week set near 96.80. However, this exaggerates the dollar's weakness because the weight of the euro and currencies that shadow it, like the Swiss franc and Swedish krona. As the North...

FX Daily, May 24: Dollar Consolidates, While Market Shrugs Off China Downgrade

After staging a modest recovery in North America yesterday afternoon, the greenback is consolidating in narrow ranges. Momentum traders, who appeared to dominate activity recently, paused. To be sure, the greenbacks upticks have been modest, and...

Four Numbers to Watch in FX

The dollar's downside momentum faded today, but it has not shown that it has legs. Watch 96.45 in the DXY and $1.3055 in sterling. The US 2-year note yield is low, given expectations for overnight money. The US premium needs to widen.

FX Daily, May 23: Greenback Remains Soft

The US dollar cannot get out of its own way, it seems. With a light economic schedule, there is little to offset the continued drumbeat of troubling political developments. The latest turn, as reported first in the Washington Post, that President Trump...

FX Daily, May 22: Dollar Pushes Back

After being shellacked last week, the US dollar is trading with a firmer bias against all the major currencies, but the euro and New Zealand dollar. To be sure, it is not that a new development has emerged to take investors' minds from intensifying...

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of May 16): Yen and Aussie Bears Push Forward, while Sterling Bears Continue to Run for Cover

The net short CHF position has risen from 15.2 short to 21.1K contracts short (against USD). But the major movement was that speculators are net long the euro now and not the dollar any more. This implies that they are also long Euro against CHF. In...

FX Weekly Preview: Nothing Like A Good US Drama

US drama distracts from the difficult and ambitious economic program. European and Japanese developments have been constructive. Bank of Canada is the only G7 central bank that meets, and it is not expected to shift from its cautious stance.

Merkel Sends Euro Higher

Markel said the euro was too weak, so it rallied. This is not a new position for Germany. Merkel may now tack to the left since the AfD appears to have been dispatched. Look for Weidmann to begin moderating views or becoming less antagonistic.

FX Weekly Review, May 15-20: Swiss Franc recovering against EUR

The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

Markozy, Merde, and now Meron

German Chancellor Merkel is one of the outstanding leaders of our era. She leads the world's fourth largest economy, which is still the locomotive for Europe. Recent state elections and polls leave little doubt that barring some kind of shock, she will...

FX Daily, May 19: Markets Trying to Stabilize Ahead of Weekend

Judging from investors' reactions, the only thing worse that than the low volatility environment is when volatility spikes higher, as it did yesterday. Higher volatility is associated with weakening equity markets, falling interest rates, pressure on...

FX Daily, May 18: Some Respite from US Politics as Sterling Surges Through $1.30

Yesterday's dramatic response to the political maelstrom in Washington is over. The appointment of a special counsel to head up the FBI's investigation into Russia's attempt to influence the US election appears to have acted a circuit breaker of sorts....

FX Daily, May 17: Drama In Washington Adds To Dollar Woes

The US dollar has drifted lower against most of the major currencies as the culmination of news from Washington, escalating already rising concerns about the economic agenda that was to bolster growth with dramatic tax reform, infrastructure...

Cool Video: Oil, US Inflation

I was on Bloomberg's Day Break with the team and guest Anne Lester from JP Morgan discussing oil and inflation. Oil prices had bounced back at the end of last week and were lifted further on news that Saudi Arabia and Russia were inclined to support...

FX Daily, May 16: Greenback and Dollar Bloc Lose Ground to Europe and Yen

Dollar selling pressure emerged at the end of last week, partly in response to disappointing US economic data. This selling pressure carried over into yesterday's activity. It appeared to have been trying to stabilize yesterday in the North American...

FX Daily, May 15: Softer Dollar and Yen to Start the Week

The US dollar has opened the week softer against the major currencies, except for the Japanese yen. The disappointing US inflation and retail sales data before the weekend have not been shrugged off, even though the US 10-year yield is a little higher...

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of May 09): Significant Position Adjustment in the Currency Futures

The net short CHF position has fallen from 17.7 short to 15,2K contracts short (against USD). But the major movement was that speculators are net long the euro now and not the dollar any more. This implies that they are also long Euro against CHF.

Yen is the Weakest Currency in the World over the Past Month

Yen was the strongest currency in the world from mid-March to mid-April. Yen has been the weakest currency over the past month. US rates have risen relative to Japan. Japan has shifted away from QE and toward targeting interest rate.

FX Weekly Preview: Two Known Unknowns

The Trump Administration seems to be trying to cast the US as a revisionist power. Or perhaps it is like Roman emperors long ago trying to draw greater tribute from others. The outlook of US interest rates is critical to the outlook of the dollar.

FX Weekly Review, May 08-13: Euro rises far above 1.09 CHF, for how long?

The euro rose up to 1.0980. How long this momentum will last is still the question, given that it is driven by this political event and sustained by SNB interventions.