Category Archive: FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler is Global Head of Currency Strategy of Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH). He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. He regularly appears on CNBC and has spoken for the Foreign Policy Association. In addition to being quoted in the financial press daily, Chandler has been published in the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, and the Washington Post. BBH provides specialist services and innovative solutions to many Swiss asset managers that include a global custody network of close to 100 markets, accounting, administration, securities lending, foreign exchange, cash management and brokerage services. Feel free to contact the Zurich office of BBH

Cool Video: “Turn Around Tuesday” Call in Early Asia Yesterday

I had time this afternoon, as I prepare for my TMA presentation tomorrow night here in Hong Kong, to find my clip from yesterday on CNBC, where I suggested the risk of a dollar recovery after it lost downside momentum in North America on Monday.

Cool Video: Brexit, Europe and EU Challenges

Earlier today, I had the opportunity to discuss the outlook for sterling and the US dollar on Bloomberg TV with Rishaad Salamat and Haidi Lun. It is a momentous day with Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty being formally triggered by UK Prime Minister May,...

FX Daily, March 28: Prospects for Turnaround Tuesday?

The slide in the US dollar and US interest rates faded in the North American session on Monday. US participants also had a fairly relaxed initial response to news that after years of complaining, the Republicans could not agree on an alternative to the...

Weekly Speculative Positions: Continued reduction of Euro Shorts

Another time speculators reduced their net Euro shorts after the less dovish ECB. But the net short of CHF nearly remains stable. This resulted in an appreciation of EUR/CHF.

FX Weekly Preview: After US Health Care, Now What?

The first quarter winds down. The dollar moved lower against all the major currencies. The best performer in the first three months of the year has been the Australian dollar's whose 5.8% rally includes last week's 1% drop. The worst performing major...

FX Weekly Review, March 20 – March 25: Dollar Bottom Near?

In the last week, the Swiss Franc index recovered and gained about 2%. The dollar index lost 1.5%. Position adjustments: The dollar tended to trade heaviest against those currencies that speculators were short, like the euro, yen, and sterling.

FX Daily, March 24: Dollar Trying to Stabilize Ahead of the Weekend

The US dollar has been stabilizing over the past couple of sessions. This broad stability of the dollar is impressive because of the questions of the prospects of US President Trump's economic agenda. Expectations for tax reform and infrastructure...

FX Daily, March 23: Some Thoughts about the Recent Price Action

The gains the US dollar scored last month have been largely unwound against the major currencies. The dollar's losses against the yen are a bit greater, and it returned to levels not seen late last November. The down draft in the dollar appears part of...

Status of US Pivot To Asia

Pivot still taking place, but without TPP, more militaristic. President Trump seems a little less confrontational toward China. China is unlikely to be cited as a currency manipulator in next month's Treasury report.

Weekly Speculative Position: After ECB, Reduction of Euro Shorts

Speculators reduced their net Euro shorts after the less dovish ECB. But the net short of CHF nearly remains stable. This resulted in an appreciation of EUR/CHF.

FX Weekly Preview: Divergence Theme Questioned

Recent developments have given rise to doubts over the divergence theme, which we suggested have shaped the investment climate. There are some at the ECB who suggest rates can rise before the asset purchases end. The Bank of England left rates on hold,...

FX Weekly Review, March 13 – March 18: Fed Disappoints, Dollar Losses

The failure of the Fed to signal an increased pace of normalization and the prospects of other central banks raising rates spurred dollar losses, which deteriorated its technical outlook.

Oil Supply Remains Resilient, Prices Heavy

Nearly half of OPEC's intended cuts are being offset by an increase in US output. The contango rewards the accumulation of inventories. The drop in oil prices probably weighs more on European reflation story than the US.

FX Daily, March 17: Dollar Remains Heavy

The dollar is softer against most of the major currencies to cap a poor weekly performance. The Dollar Index is posting what may be its biggest weekly loss since last November. The combination of the Federal Reserve not signaling an acceleration of...

Trump: Unilateralism or Isolationism?

Many who think that the US is becoming isolationist are wrong. The thrust is now more about unilateralism. Unilateralism can lead to the US being more isolated.

FX Daily, March 16: Greenback Consolidates Losses as Yields Stabilize

The US dollar remained under pressure in Asia following the disappointment that the FOMC did not signal a more aggressive stance, even though its delivered the nearly universally expected 25 bp rate hike. News that the populist-nationalist Freedom...

Federal Reserve Hikes, but Changes Little Else

Fed made mostly minor changes in the statement as it hiked the Fed funds rate for the third time in the cycle. The average and median dot for Fed funds crept slightly higher. There was only one dissent to the decision.

FX Daily, March 15: Greenback Softens Ahead of FOMC

The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains as the market awaits the outcome of the well-telegraphed FOMC meeting. In recent weeks, the combination of data and official comments have swayed market, which had previously anticipated a hike in May or June.

China’s NPC Ends with New Initiatives

China will make its mainland bond market more accessible. As China's portfolio of patents grows it will likely become more protective of others' intellectual property rights. PRC President Xi will likely visit US President Trump early next month.