Category Archive: FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler

He is Global Head of Currency Strategy of Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH). He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. He regularly appears on CNBC and has spoken for the Foreign Policy Association. In addition to being quoted in the financial press daily, Chandler has been published in the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, and the Washington Post.
BBH provides specialist services and innovative solutions to many Swiss asset managers that include a global custody network of close to 100 markets, accounting, administration, securities lending, foreign exchange, cash management and brokerage services. Feel free to contact the Zurich office of BBH

Weekly Technical Analysis: 20/11/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPAUD

USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBP/AUD

Read More »

FX Daily, November 21: Dollar Marks Time

The US dollar has largely been confined to yesterday's trading ranges against the major currencies amid light news. The North American session does not hold much hope for fresh impetus. The US reports October existing home sales, which are not typically market moving in the best of times. Yellen does not speak until after the markets close, and even then is unlikely to sway expectations, which have priced in a rate hike next month.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 20: German Political Impasse Roils Euro…Briefly

News that the attempt to forge a four-party coalition in Germany collapsed Sunday saw the euro marked down in early Asian activity. The euro fell to nearly $1.1720 in the immediate response to the news, stabilized before turning higher in early European turnover. It quickly recovered and poked through $1.1800. The pre-weekend high was seen near $1.1820.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Another Week that is Not about the Data

The contours of the investment climate are unlikely to change based on next week's economic data from the US, Japan, or Europe. The state of the major economies continues to be well understood by investors. Growth in the US, EU, and Japan remains solid, and if anything above trend, as the year winds down.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Euro Approaching Key Test

Euro is testing trendline and retracement objective and 100-day moving average. Technical indicators on daily bar charts warn of upside risk. Two-year rate differentials make it expensive to be long euros vs. US. Beware of small samples that may exaggerate seasonality.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 16: Euro Extends Pullback

After rising to its best level since October 20, the euro reversed direction yesterday and has extended its pullback today. The unexpected tick up in US core CPI and better than expected retail sales may have helped spur the euro losses after three cent run-up over the past several sessions. There bearish candlestick (shooting star) leaves the late euro longs in weak hands.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 15: Dollar Slides

The euro and yen are extending their gains, casting a pall over the US dollar. The euro is extending its advance into a sixth consecutive session, which is the longest streak since May. It is approaching last month's highs in the $1.1860-$1.1880 area. As was the case yesterday, a consolidative tone in Asia was followed by strong buying in the European morning. There does not appear to be a fresh fundamental driver.

Read More »

Weekly Technical Analysis: 13/11/2017 – USDCHF, USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

Read More »

FX Daily, November 14: Euro Rides High After German GDP

Sterling is trading in the lower end of yesterday's range and has been confined to about a quarter a cent on either side of $1.31. On the other hand, the euro has pushed a bit through GBP0.8950 to reach its best level since October 26. Sweden also reported softer than expected October inflation.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 13: Sterling Trounced by Growing Political Challenges

The US dollar has begun the new week on firm footing, without the help of either higher interest rates or increased confidence that Congress will agree on a tax plan. Indeed, over the weekend the Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee was explicit that the Senate plan to repeal the federal tax break for state and local taxes will not find support in the House of Representative.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Week Ahead Data and Policy

There seems to be a broad consensus on the trajectory of policy in the remaining weeks of the year. Barring a major shock or surprise the Federal Reserve will hike rates next month. The ECB's course is set until at least the middle of next year when the current policy will begin to be debated in earnest.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: The Week of Digestion

Quiet week ahead. RBA and RBNZ policy meetings; no change is expected. US tax reform and the newest Fed governor, Quarles speaks. Q3 data renders September data too old to matter much.

Read More »

Weekly Technical Analysis: 06/11/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

Read More »

Cool Video: Bloomberg TV on Powell–Heir Apparent

In London on business and had the opportunity to go to Bloomberg. In this clip, Francine Lacqua discuss the likely nomination of Fed Governor Powell to succeed Yellen at the helm of the Federal Reserve. I make three points. First, that, like others, I recognize a strong element of continuity between Bernanke, who was first appointed by a Republican, Yellen, and now, presumably Powell.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 03: Dollar Firms Ahead of What is Expected to Be Strong US Jobs Data

The US dollar is firm but is not going anywhere quickly. The lack of fresh interest rate support and uncertainty over the US tax proposals, which the Brady, the Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee hopes to have a revised version out after the weekend so the committee work can begin on Monday.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 02: Dollar Pulls Back in Asia

We suggested the market was at crossroads. It is still not clear if the dollar's breakout, supported by higher yields is real or simply the fraying of ranges. Asia has pushed the dollar broadly lower. While the greenback finished the North American session above JPY114.00 for the first time since July, the fact that the US 10-year yield could not push back above the 2.40% level, does not help confidence.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 01: Super 48 Hours

This is it: The next 48 hours will be among the busiest of the year. The Bank of England meets tomorrow, and it not only gives a verdict on interest rates but also provides an update of its economic projections (Quarterly Inflation Report). And, among the innovations, the MPC minutes will be released. Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, the market will have the ADP private-sector job estimate.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 31: Month-End Leaves Market at Crossroads

Global equity markets are closing another strong month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed on the day, but up 4.3% in October, the 10th consecutive monthly advance. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is also flattish today, but up 1.6% on the month. It is the second monthly advance after a June-August swoon. The benchmark is closing in on the high for the year set in May.

Read More »

Weekly Technical Analysis: 30/10/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP

Read More »