Category Archive: FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He is Global Head of Currency Strategy of Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH). He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. He regularly appears on CNBC and has spoken for the Foreign Policy Association. In addition to being quoted in the financial press daily, Chandler has been published in the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, and the Washington Post. BBH provides specialist services and innovative solutions to many Swiss asset managers that include a global custody network of close to 100 markets, accounting, administration, securities lending, foreign exchange, cash management and brokerage services. Feel free to contact the Zurich office of BBH

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of July 18): Speculators Switch to Net Long Canadian Dollar Futures

The net speculative CHF position has risen from -0.2K logn to 3.7K contracts short (against USD). Speculators are long EUR against both USD and CHF. We wonder how long this will be the case, given that we expect Euro zone inflation to fall under 1%...

FX Weekly Preview: Don’t Be Confused by the Facts or Why Neither the Data nor the Fed Will Alter Market Trends

FOMC is the highlight of the week. Early look at July inflation in Europe may see less pressure. Overall household consumption in Japan is rising, helped by robust labor market, but little new price pressures. The data this week is expected to confirm...

FX Weekly Review, July 17 – July 22: Euro and CHF move upwards against Dollar

Both Swiss Franc and Euro were moving upwards against the dollar. So CHF gained 3% versus the dollar in the last month. CHF losses against the euro are smaller, around 1.3%.

FX Daily, July 21: Dollar Licks Wounds as News Stream Doesn’t Improve

The euro has depreciated by 0.13 to 1.1043 CHF. ECB President Draghi did not argue forcefully enough at yesterday's press conference to dampen the enthusiasm for the euro. The initial dip was quickly bought and the euro chased above last year's high...

Oil Update

OPEC meets on July 24. Nigeria and Libya may be pressured to cap output although they were exempt from quotas. US exports and refining appear to be the driving force behind the 13.8 mln barrel decline in inventories. Mexico has reportedly made two...

FX Daily, July 19: Dollar Stabilizes on Hump Day, Awaits Thursday’s BOJ and ECB Meetings

After being shellacked to start the week, the US dollar is being given a small reprieve today as investors await tomorrow's BOJ and ECB meetings. The US may also report a bounce back in housing starts (residential investment) after a three-month slide.

Sterling, McCafferty, and BOE Policy

BOE hawk is arguing for a sooner unwind of QE. He did not favor the renewed asset purchases after the referendum. Sterling has been meeting resistance near $1.30 for past two months.

FX Daily, July 18: Dollar Dumped on Doubts on US Economic Agenda

News of the defection of two more Republican Senators doomed the Senate attempt to replace and repeal America's national health care. The failure to replace the system dubbed Obamacare, despite the Republican majority in both legislative chambers and...

FX Daily, July 17: Markets Mark Time, Dollar Consolidates Losses

After falling to new lows for the year against several major currencies in response to disappointing retail sales and uninspiring CPI before the weekend, the US dollar has begun the new week on a more stable note. It is firmer against nearly all the...

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of July 11): Speculators Switch to CHF Long against USD

The net long CHF position has risen from 0.1K short to 0.2K contracts short (against USD). Speculators are long EUR against both USD and CHF. We wonder how long this will be the case, given that we expect Euro zone inflation to fall under 1% from...

FX Weekly Preview: Focus Shifts from Fed to ECB

Market has downgraded chances of a September hike from low to lower, but the chances of a December hike are higher than the day after the June hike. ECB meeting is the most important event of the week. A small change in the risk assessment is likely....

FX Weekly Review, July 10 – July 15: CHF Winning against USD, but losing vs. Euro

The Euro remained the strongest among EUR, CHF and USD during the last month.  The Swiss lost against EUR 1.5%, while it gained versus the dollar 0.75%.

Great Graphic: Dollar Index Bottoming?

The Dollar Index set the year's high on January 3 a little above 103.20. Today it made a marginal new lows for the year at 95.464. The previous low, set at the end of last month was 95.47.

FX Daily, July 14: Aussie Scales New Highs for the Year, as the Greenback Remains on the Defensive

The Australian dollar has taken over leadership in the dollar bloc from the Canadian dollar. The Aussies are up about 0.35% today to extend this week's gains to more than 2% and reach a new high for the year a little more than $0.7760. The Canadian...

FX Daily, July 13: Sterling and Antipodeans Trade Higher

The US dollar is mostly consolidating yesterday's move. Sterling is pushing back through $1.29 as the hawks on the MPC may not have been dissuaded by disappointing PMI readings and the softer earnings growth. The table is being set for another 5-3...

FX Daily, July 12: Currencies Stabilize, but Yen Strengthens

The US dollar and sterling have stabilized after being sold off yesterday. The yen, which had begun recovering from a four-month low, is the strongest of the major currencies today, gaining around 0.5% against the dollar (@~JPY113.40).

Great Graphic: Aussie is Approaching 15-month Trendline

This Great Graphic, made on Bloomberg, depicts the Australian dollar since April 2016. We drew in the trendline from that April high, through the November high and the March 2017 high. It nearly catches last month's high as well. It comes in now...

FX Daily, July 11: Markets Looking for Next Cue

Investors await fresh policy clues as the Bank of England's Broadbent is seen as a key vote on a closely balanced MPC, while the Fed's Brainard, is also seen as a bellwether, will speak shortly after midday in NY. Broadbent has not spoken since the...