Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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June 2023 Monthly

2023-05-27

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2023-05-27

June is a pivotal month. The US debt-ceiling political drama cast a pall over sentiment even if it did not prevent the dollar from rallying or the S&P 500 and NASDAQ from setting new highs for the year. It is as if the two political parties in the US are playing a game of chicken and daring the other side to capitulate. Both sides are incentivized to take to the brink to convince their constituents that they secured the best deal possible. No...

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NZDUSD down for the 4th day in a row. Extends through swing area and looks toward 50%..

2023-05-26

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The NZDUSD has tumbled 3.6% this week with the last 4 trading days to the downside. That is the biggest move lower since September 19, 2022. What does the sharp fall do to the technical picture as the week comes to a close?

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S&P index retests its 100 week moving average and backs off. Nasdaq above 100 week MA.

2023-05-26

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Both the S&P and the Nasdaq broad indices are trading around the 100 week moving average as the week works toward the close. The S&P is just below the level near 4200. The Nasdaq is above the MA at 12902.78 currently. Can both close above those key 100 week MAs this week and tilt the bias more to the upside?

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GBPUSD rotates back lower. 100 day MA the focus

2023-05-26

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The 100 day MA near 1.2287. The GBPUSD moved higher in trading today held by better-than-expected retail sales. The price extended up to and through the falling 100-hour moving average currently at 1.23839 (blue line in the chart above). The price also entered into a swing area that has a number of different swing lows and swing highs going back to the end of March (see red numbered circles). The momentum could not take the price above that swing...

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USDJPY left to right chart bias is still to the upside. 50% retracement holds support.

2023-05-26

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50% retracement near 139.574 is a close risk and short-term bias defining level. The USDJPY dipped to the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2022 high after breaking above that level yesterday.  The corrective move dipped just below that level but found buyers ahead of the better-than-expected US data. That data sent the USDJPY back to the upside. The buyers remain in full control.   Stay above the 50% retracement at 139.574 is more bullish. The...

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EURUSD bias remains to the downside after US data dump

2023-05-26

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Stronger data slows the EURUSD's corrective move higher. The EURUSD was moving higher in pre-data trading with the price moving toward resistance levels on the hourly chart. The US data was largely stronger than expected, turning the USD back to the upside (the EURUSD lower). That move kept the bias pointing to the downside for the pair.  Resistance comes between 1.07509 and 1.0764 (where the 100 hour moving average is currently at and moving...

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The Greenback Stalls after Yesterday’s Surge as US Negotiators Move Closer to Last-Minute Deal

2023-05-26

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2023-05-26

Overview: Yesterday's dollar surge has stalled. It is consolidating its gains and is softer against all the G10 currencies. After popping above JPY140 yesterday, there were no follow-through greenback buying in Tokyo. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer, including the South African rand, which plummeted by 2.8% yesterday on the back of the central bank's warning of downside currency risks as it delivered a 50 bp hike. The Chinese yuan...

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AUDUSD trades to the lowest level since November and below a key swing area

2023-05-25

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The AUDUSD is making a break lower in trading today on the daily chart with the price entering the low extreme area from 2022 below 0.65448 to 0.65847.  Stay below 0.65448 keeps the sellers in firm control.

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AUDUSD trades to the lowest level since November and below a key swing area

2023-05-25

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The AUDUSD is making a break lower in trading today on the daily chart with the price entering the low extreme area from 2022 below 0.65448 to 0.65847.  Stay below 0.65448 keeps the sellers in firm control.

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The USD moves higher and the USDJPY and GBPUSD are breaking key areas.

2023-05-25

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Can the momentum continue? The USD is moving higher and the USDJPY and GBPUSD are breaking key areas. There is chatter about a debt deal possible today. Initial jobless claims and GDP were better.  Stocks are higher thanks to Nvidia. The market is starting to price in a hike in June.  All are helping the dollar move higher. The question is can the momentum continue?

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EURUSD moves below a key floor. Old floor is now the ceiling.

2023-05-25

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The EURUSD closed near a floor level on the daily chart near 1.0750. In trading today, that level was breached with momentum. What was once the floor is now the ceiling. Stay below is more bearish.

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Fitch Puts US on Negative Credit Watch and the Dollar Extends its Gains

2023-05-25

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2023-05-25

Overview: Concerned about the political wrangling over servicing US debt, Fitch put the US on negative credit watch. Besides chin wagging and finger pointing, it has had little perceptible impact. The dollar is mostly higher, reaching new highs for the year against the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, and the Antipodean currencies. The euro and sterling met retracement objective we have targeted (~$1.0735 and $1.2435, respectively). The greenback is...

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USDJPY buyers in control. Watch to understand why and what would hurt that bias today

2023-05-24

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The buyers are holding support on the hourly and daily chart with work to do. What would keep that bias in the favor of the USDJPY? What are the targets and why?  Learn about it by watching this video on the USDJPY.

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EURUSD sellers had their shot. Buyers had their shot. Both are bad shots so far.

2023-05-24

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Sellers tried to push the EURUSD to new lows and below a floor and key swing area but failed. The snapback rally the price back to the falling 100-hour moving average. That, along with the 100-day moving average of 1.0813 and the following 200-hour moving average of 1.08274 are tires that would need to be broken to increase the bullish bias from a technical perspective in the short term at least.   For now, sellers are in more control, but there is...

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RBNZ Delivers a Dovish Hike and UK Inflation Surprises to the Upside

2023-05-24

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2023-05-24

Overview: Equities in the Asia Pacific region and Europe are being led lower by the sell-off in the US yesterday. All the large Asia Pacific markets fell with Hong Kong and mainland shares setting the pace. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off nearly 1.5%, which would be the largest loss in two months. Consumer discretionary, financials and real estate sectors are off nearly 2%. US equity futures have a softer bias. European 10-year yields are mostly 2-3 bp...

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AUDUSD heads into the new trading day near lows from last week

2023-05-23

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The AUDUSD is looking to end the day near lows.  Stocks moved lower. The USD moved higher.  Risk off flows?  Maybe a little.  In this video, I talk about the technicals that are dominating the price action in the pair. The 100-hour MA has seen price action above and below over the last 3 trading days, but the price is back below and moving away (bearish). The higher 200-hour MA has not been broken to the topside since May 11. It would take a move...

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USDJPY makes new highs for the year, but momentum slowsLive Video

2023-05-23

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The USDJPY moved to a new high going back to November 2022 in trading today, but could not maintain momentum. The price is rotated back to the downside ahead of the US stock market open.  Technically, failure to extend hire is a disappointment, but if the price can remain above 138.139 on the daily chart, that would keep the buyers and control. Watch that level in trading today for short and long term-term clues.

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EURUSD stretches toward the low from last week and away from 100 day MA. What next?

2023-05-23

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Join us as we delve into the EURUSD's current price action and uncover its potential for a downside move. The pair is currently approaching the low from last week, indicating a significant level to watch. A breakthrough below this level, along with the 1.0750 support level from the daily chart, could pave the way for further downside momentum. Traders will closely monitor whether the pair can sustainably stay below its 100-day moving average at...

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Yen Recovers from New 2023 Low, while Sterling Sets a New Low for the Month

2023-05-23

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2023-05-23

Overview:  The dollar is bid. Only the Japanese yen is holding its own against the greenback but only after it fell to new lows for the year. The Scandis and Antipodeans are the heaviest among the G10 currencies, while sterling has fallen to a new low for the month. The prospect of a rate hike tomorrow has not protected the New Zealand dollar much and it is off nearly 0.5%. Emerging market currencies are more mixed. Outside of the Russian rouble,...

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The table is set for the buyers and sellers in the USDCAD. Traders await the next shove.

2023-05-22

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Join us as we analyze the USDCAD's trading session on Victoria Day, a national holiday in Canada. Despite the subdued price action, important resistance and support areas have emerged, setting the stage for potential momentum in the coming days. The resistance area lies between 1.3517 and 1.35266, while the support area is defined by the 50% midpoint and a cluster of moving averages, including the 100-hour moving average at 1.3486, the 200-hour...

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