Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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The AUDUSD runs higher on Friday but stalls at a key level. What next?

2023-06-03

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The AUDUSD made new cycle lows this week, but bottomed midweek and moved higher on Thursday and Friday. The move back to the upside took the pair back into a "red box" that confined price action for 3-months.  The break failed. The buyers returned.  However, the run to the upside on Friday ran into resistance against the high of a swing area on the daily chart, and a key retracement level on the hourly chart (the May trading range)....

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Week Ahead: Australia and Canada–Hawkish Hold? US Bill Issuance Jumps

2023-06-03

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2023-06-03

True to the historic pattern, the US debt ceiling was used by the party not in control of the executive branch to exact spending concessions. Despite the extreme partisanship, the brinkmanship tactics, and fears that this time would be different, there was no default. As Bismarck once quipped, "Laws are like sausages and it is best not seen them being made." Still, as a consequence, the rebuilding of the Treasury's account and bill...

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USDCAD sellers take the price below key 100/200 day MAs tilting the bias to the downside

2023-06-03

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The key move technically in the USDCAD last week, was the move back below the 100 and 200 day MAs. That tilted the bias more to the downside for the pair from a technical perspective. The other thing of note from the daily chart is the convergence of the 100/200-day MAs. That is indicative of a non-trending longer-term market which could be a clue for a break outside of the range... soon. Non-trend transitions to trend.   The video will outline the...

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The week ahead: USDCHF sellers had their shot on Friday, but missed.

2023-06-03

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The USDCHF sellers had their shot on Friday on the break of the 200-hour MA, but could not sustain momentum. The better US jobs report started the wheels in motion for a move back to the upside. That took the price back above the 200 and 100-hour MAs in the process (at 0.90564 and 0.90718 respectively).  However, there is also key upside target resistance at 100-day MA and the 50% retracement of the 2023 trading range both at 0.9126. That level...

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GBPUSD technical levels in play for the week starting June 5th

2023-06-03

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The GBPUSD moved higher into the jobs report on Friday, but fell as yields moved higher and so did the USD. The GBPUSD fell to a support level on the hourly chart, but maintained hope for more upside from the look from the daily chart.  Monday should give traders some technical clues on who might win the next battle. The video will outline the key levels in play for the pair.

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USDJPY technical levels in play for the week starting June 5th

2023-06-02

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Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a deep into the technicals defining the bias, risk and key targets for the EURUSD  heading into the new trading week starting June 5, 2023. In the report, he looks at the daily chart and then drills into the hourly chart. Get your week started on the right foot by understanding what levels are key and in play for the EURUSD. .

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EURUSD technical levels in play for the week starting June 5th

2023-06-02

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In this video, Greg Michalowski from Forexlive.com takes a look at the technical levels that will be in play next week and explain why.

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EURGBP sellers remain in control, but some key support held this week

2023-06-02

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The EURGBP fell to the lowest level since December 2022 this week. The run lower moved into a swing area on the daily chart which has done a good job of defining resistance and support going back in time (to as far as 2021).  The holding of that level has given buyers some support to lean against. The price for the pair is higher today. Having said that, drilling into the hourly chart, the price remains below the following 100 hour moving average...

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What are driving the major USD currency pairs post US jobs report

2023-06-02

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A technical look at the levels driving the bias for the major pairs. Do you want to get your "feet under you" from a technical perspective after the US jobs report?  Take a look at this video for a review the levels in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD and AUDUSD.   The jobs report largely kept the pairs between support and resistance levels. That gives teachers the opportunity to wait for the next shove and run.   Be...

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What key levels are in play for the EURUSD ahead of the US jobs report

2023-06-02

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As the market awaits the US jobs report, the EURUSD has positioned itself between key moving averages. On the topside the 100 day moving average and 38.2% retracement of the range since the April high is resistance near 1.0811. On the downside the 200 hour moving average 1.07312 and the 100 hour moving average 1.07151 would need to be broken to increase a bearish bias. The current price trades between the levels at 1.0763. Flip a coin. That is what...

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US Debt Ceiling Drama Ends with a Whimper, Focus on US Jobs and Fed

2023-06-02

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2023-06-02

Overview: Another bizarre US debt-ceiling episode is over. President Biden will sign the bill that was approved by the Senate late yesterday. It is a bit anticlimactic for the market, for which the US jobs data is the key focus now. Outside of the fiscal drama, the Federal Reserve leadership has effectively push against market expectations for a hike later this month. The odds were around 70% earlier this week, and ahead of the jobs report, is...

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Bitcoin buyers are holding more control. What would change that technical view?

2023-06-01

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The price of bitcoin is trading above its 100 day moving average and 38.2% retracement. Buyers are holding to control above those technical levels.

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US dollar making new session lows versus the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD.

2023-06-01

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Run to the downside for the greenback. What are the charts telling us? The USD is making new session lows versus the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD.  The greenback is the weakest of the major currencies now. The JPY was the weakest at the start of the US session. The AUDUSD is the biggest mover with a change of 1.09% on the day. For a technical look at some of the currency pairs running including the EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD, watch the video.

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AUDUSD is testing it’s a 200 hour moving average.

2023-06-01

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A move - and close - above the 200 hour MA would be the first since May 11. The AUDUSD is testing at 200 hour moving average of 0.65467. The high price reached 0.6548, and backed off on the first look. The current price is trading at 0.6537. The price of the AUDUSD is not trade/closed above it's a 200 hour moving average since May 11. A break - and close above - would give buyers more confidence, and tilt the short-term bias in favor of the...

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Buyers in the GBPUSD are making a play away from the 38.2% of the May trading range

2023-06-01

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Above the 38.2% retracement of the May trading range at 1.24493. The buyers in the GBPUSD are making a play to the upside from a technical perspective in trading today. The pair has been able to get above the 38.2% retracement of the May trading range at 1.24493. There was a dip after the ADP jobs report that took the price back toward that level but support buyers came in, and or forcing the price to new session highs. The next key target comes...

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The sellers in the USDJPY are making a technical play

2023-06-01

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The price remains below its 100 hour moving average, and is also below its 200 hour moving average. Despite the better ADP data and steady but strong initial jobless claims, the USDJPY is moving lower. Yields are also now in negative territory with the 2-year yield down around 1 basis point and the 10-year down -3.1 basis points. Technically, the USDJPY has been able to stay below its 100-hour moving average at 139.99, and although trading above...

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We are in a new trading month and the EURUSD is trying to bounce despite strong US data

2023-06-01

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ADP and claims not bad today ahead of the jobs report tomorrow. The EURUSD has been trying to rebound on the 1st trading day of the new trading month. Yesterday on the last trading day of the month, the price of the EURUSD moved to a new month low for May before rebounding. That perhaps gave the dip buyers some encouragement today, but the pair still had trouble above its 100 hour moving average. The price has seen moves above the 100 hour moving...

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Dollar Steadies After Fed’s Push Back

2023-06-01

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2023-06-01

Overview: The market was gearing up for a June Fed hike and officials and this helped lift the greenback. However, the Fed Governor Jefferson, nominated to be the next vice-chair, pushed back against it. His views are thought to reflect the Fed's leadership. Philadelphia Fed's Harker, who is a voting member of the FOMC also backed a pause. This is not quite what we expected when we suggested the US interest rate adjustment was complete or nearly...

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USDCAD finds support against the downside moving average target and bounces

2023-05-31

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USDCAD moved lower and tested the 200 hour MA target on the downside. Buyers stalled the fall. The price moved back higher. That move to the upside took the price back to the 100 hour MA where sellers are now leaning. So buyers against the 200 hour MA below. Sellers are leaning against the 100 hour MA. Traders will be looking for the next shove outside that area for the next bias clues.

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USDCHF moves above the midpoint of 2023 range and 100 day MA. BULLISH.

2023-05-31

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The USDCHF is up sharply today extending above a swing area on the daily chart between 0.9081 and 0.91015. The break above that area then targeted a dual technical level on the daily chart defined by the 50% midpoint of the 2023 trading range, and the 100-day moving average. Both of those levels come in at 0.91297. That key level has also been broken increasing the bullish bias on the daily chart. It has also set the level as a close risk level...

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