Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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US and Chinese Inflation Highlight the Week Ahead, While the Bank of Canada Stands Pat

2023-04-08

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2023-04-08

Bank shares rose in Japan and Europe for the second consecutive week, but the KBW US bank index fell nearly 2% after increasing 4.6% in the last week of March. Emergency borrowing from the Fed remains elevated ($149 bln vs. $153 bln). Bank lending has fallen sharply (~$105 bln) in the two weeks through March 29. This appears to be a record two-week decline. Commercial and industrial loans had fallen a little in the first two months of the year...

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Good Friday

2023-04-07

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2023-04-07

Overview:  Activity throughout the capital markets remains light as most financial centers in Europe are closed for the Easter celebration. Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, and Indian markets were closed as well. Still, most of the equity markets in Asia Pacific advanced, led by South Korea's Kospi's nearly 1.3% advance. The market responded favorably to news that Samsung would cut its production of memory chips and shrugged off its smaller than...

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SPX technical analysis: Anticipating 4200 next

2023-04-07

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S&P 500 index is holding well and at the bring of breaking out of the bull flag. I am targeting 4200. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views. Updates may be published in the comments section here: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/spx-technical-analysis-im-bullish-with-a-4200-target/

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VIDEO: Initial claims data readjustments from seasonals influencing the major currencies

2023-04-06

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The US initial jobless claims seasonal adjustments mainly due to volatility of covid data (still living that nightmare), sent that series to the upside and change the trend of jobs since mid-January from strong to getting weaker. There markets reacted to that data. In this video I explain the early moves in yields and then in some of the major currency pairs including the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD.

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Fragile Calm Casts a Pall over the Capital Markets

2023-04-06

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2023-04-06

Overview: There is a fragile calm in the capital markets today ahead of the long holiday weekend for many. The poor US economic data yesterday and third consecutive decline in the KBW bank index weighed on risk sentiment. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region fell, with Hong Kong and India notable exceptions. In Japan, the Topix bank index fell 1.1% after a 1.9% decline yesterday and is now lower on the week. Europe's Stoxx 600 is...

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Party with the elite at the Networking Blitz – the opening party of #FMAS23

2023-04-05

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AUDUSD rebounds off lows but retracement stalls near resistance

2023-04-05

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The AUDUSD fell sharply today but has seen a bounce with the USD selling. The price trades between short term support and resistance. What does that look like? What's next? Those questions are answered in this trading video.

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VIDEO: USDCAD tries to end 7-day slide, but technical resistance keeps a lid on the pair

2023-04-05

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The USDCAD has rebounded today and tries to break a 7 day slide.  The correction higher, however, has run into some short term resistance that puts a lid on the pair.   In this video, I step through the daily and hourly charts of the pair and show in detail what levels are in play.  It is important as a trader to understand the "whys". This video explains so you can replicate the ideas in your trading going forward.

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What technical levels are driving the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD today?

2023-04-05

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The EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY made breaks yesterday and revisited those break levels today.  What key technical levels are driving those three major trading pairs today and why?

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Pressure Returns to Bank Shares and seems to Help Propel Gold Higher

2023-04-05

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2023-04-05

Overview: There are three themes today. First, the sharp decline in US rates seen yesterday (-14 bp on the two-year yield) on the back disappointing economic data seemed a bit exaggerated and the two-year yield has bounced back to almost 3.90% from around 3.81%. This appears to be helping the dollar consolidate today. Second, bank shares are coming under renewed pressure. The US KBW bank index fell almost 2% yesterday after a 0.5% decline on...

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Morning FX technical report: What levels are in play for some of the major currency pairs

2023-04-04

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In the morning forex technical report, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD. The EURUSD moved to a key swing target and found willing sellers.  For the USDJPY, it held support at a key swing area, and moved back above the 100 hour MA. Can it stay above that MA level now? The GBPUSD meanwhile made a break higher, but has shown some signs of some profit taking. The buyers and sellers are battling in the short term.  The RBA...

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RBA Holds Fire, Sterling Reaches Best Level since last June, and the Dollar Struggles to Find Much Traction

2023-04-04

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2023-04-04

Overview: The jump in oil prices is the newest shock and the May WTI contract is holding above $80 a barrel as it consolidates yesterday's surge. A week ago, it settled near $73.20. Australian and New Zealand bond yields moved lower, partly in catch-up and partly after the RBA stood pat. South Korean bonds also rallied on the back of softer inflation (4.2% vs. 4.8%). But European and US benchmark yields is 2-4 bp higher. The large equity markets...

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US morning technical report: USDCAD moves lower on higher oil prices

2023-04-03

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The USDCAD moved lower on the back of higher oil prices and in the process moved below the 100 day MA. That MA break shifts the sellers more in control. Stay below and traders will look toward the 200 day MA which has not been broken since August. The EURUSD moved lower and back higher. The pair is back into a swing area between 1.0866 and 1.08868.  The GBPUSD snapped back higher extending back above the 200 and 100 hour MAs in the process...

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OPEC+ Surprises while Manufacturing Remains Challenged

2023-04-03

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2023-04-03

Overview: News of OPEC+ unexpected output cuts saw May WTI gap sharply higher and helped lift bond yields. May WTI settled near three-week highs before the weekend near $75.65 and opened today near $80. It reached almost $81.70 before stabilizing and is straddling the $80 area before the North American session. The high for the year was set in the second half of January around $83. Benchmark 10-year yields are up 2-5 bp points. The 10-year US...

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Gold technical analysis: Getting ready for the big short

2023-04-01

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Is gold on the verge of a big short? Learn about the potential trading opportunity with a 7 to 1 reward vs. risk ratio in this gold technical analysis video. We discuss the triple top formation, signs of market fatigue, and the yellow channel with touchpoints at 1800 and 1975. Our strategy suggests shorting gold on the next possible spike up at 2010.8, with a final target around 1827 and a stop loss set at 2037 to manage risk. Keep in mind that...

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April 2023 Monthly

2023-04-01

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2023-04-01

There were three ways the monetary cycle was going to turn. First, unemployment could have reached unacceptable levels. This did not happen. Labor markets have proven thus far to be resilient among most G10 countries. Second, a significant and sustained drop in price pressures could end the tightening cycle. This has yet to materialize in a meaningful way. In some countries, governments have energy subsidies, and these measures only offer temporary...

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It’s quarter, month and week end. What to expect from some of the major currency pairs.

2023-03-31

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The US PCE came in weaker than expected and the USD is showing some weakness in trading today. In this report, we take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD and outline the key levels in play. Stay up to date on the latest price action and potential trading opportunities.

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March: Going Out like A Lamb after Wrestling with a Lion

2023-03-31

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2023-03-31

Overview: The banking stress that roiled the markets this month has eased. However, the emergency lending by the Federal Reserve, vias the discount window and new Bank Term Funding Program hardly slowed in the past week ($152.6 bln vs. $163.9 bln). Money markets took in more funds. Almost $305 bln has flowed to them over the past three weeks. The US KBW bank index is up 3.75% this week coming into day (after pulling back 1.2% yesterday). Europe's...

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Thumbnail Sketch of the Peso Ahead of Banxico’s Decision

2023-03-30

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2023-03-30

The central bank of Mexico is expected to deliver a 25 bp rate hike later today that would lift the overnight cash target to 11.25%. The swaps market says this will be the last hike in the cycle. However, with a further hike by the Fed possible, it seems unlikely that Banxico will declare mission accomplished. Still, Mexico’s overnight rate is above current inflation.  CPI in February was about 7.6% and the core rate (excluding food and energy)...

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Dollar Soft but Stretched

2023-03-30

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2023-03-30

Overview: While bank stress seems to continue to ease, the dollar languishes against most of the major currencies. The Japanese yen is the notable exception. It is off about 1.5% this week. The Dollar Index has given back the gains scored at the end of last week but remains inside the range set last Thursday and Friday (~101.90-102.35). Perhaps the participants are waiting for Friday. In addition to month-, quarter, and fiscal-year ends, it is...

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