Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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The technical levels in play in some of major currency pairs ahead of FOMC rate decision

2022-12-14

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With the US CPI in the rear view mirror, what levels are in play for the FOMC rate decision later today at 2 PM ET? In this report, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD ahead of that rate decision, and what risk and bias defining levels are in play today and going forward.  The EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY are all trading around key levels on the daily chart, that could be setting up for...

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TSLA technical analysis and critical junction to watch

2022-12-14

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This is a daily chart of Tesla stock and price has exited this channel, which is a risky sign for buy and holders. However, they can consider to reenter, should 2 consecutive daily candles close within the channel. I show how to set a TradingView alert that can elevate your timing to a new level, without the need to be in front of the screen. Trade TSLA stocl at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com technical analysis for additional perspectives....

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What Can the Fed tell the Market it Does Not Already Know?

2022-12-14

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2022-12-14

Overview: The softer than expected US CPI drove the dollar and interest rates lower, while igniting strong advances in equities, risk assets, commodities, and gold. Calmer market conditions are prevailing today, and we suspect that in the run-up to the FOMC meeting, a broadly consolidative tone will emerge. The dollar is mostly softer, but within yesterday’s ranges. Only the New Zealand and Canadian dollars among the G10 currencies are softer....

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What the heck happened after the CPI report? Russell 2000 technical analysis

2022-12-14

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One and half minute analysis showing a technical perspecitve why profit takers sold where they did, post the CPI report. Many traders were confused as the equities futures blasted off before the standard hours of the market, continued at the open, and then signficantly faded to return more of the gains. Here's why. That same technical analysis map can help traders navigate the technical picture of the FOMC meeting reaction coming next. What the...

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The CPI came in weaker but there are some retracements in the USD and stocks

2022-12-13

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Dollar lower but off the lowest levels. Stocks show some upside reluctance too. The USD moved lower and the stocks moved higher after the weaker CPI data, but there is some backtracking going on that needs monitoring from a technical perspective.  In this report Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and the S&P and Nasdaq indices.

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US CPI ahead of FOMC Outcome Tomorrow

2022-12-13

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2022-12-13

Overview: The dollar softer against the G10 currencies ahead of today’s CPI report and the FOMC meeting the concludes tomorrow. Emerging market currencies are most mixed. The Hungarian forint leads the complex with around a 1% gain on news of a preliminary deal struck with the EU. The South African rand is the worst performer, off around 0.8%, as impeachment proceedings against Ramaphosa proceed. Global equities are mostly higher today after the...

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Markets Await Central Banks and Data

2022-12-12

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2022-12-12

Overview: There are two themes today. First, there has been a modest bout of profit-taking on Chinese stocks (and yuan) after last week’s surge. Second, the ahead of the five G10 central bank meeting this week a series of market-sensitive economic reports, a consolidative tone is seen in most of the capital markets. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region fell, led by a 2.2% loss in Hong Kong and 3% loss in its index of mainland shares.

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S&P 500 technical analysis before Dec FOMC meeting

2022-12-12

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We are coming near an interesting technical junction at 3937. An area of tripple support on one hand, but, on the other hand, a potential break down of a bear flag. Watch the 2hr timeframe chart for ES, the S&P 500 E-mini Futures and note the patterns and price junction as the market heads into the Big Wednesday and most important day of the end of the year, the FOMC meeting. Visit ForexLive.com for additional perspectives.

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The Yuan Puts Together its Strongest Two Week Rally in Decades and it has Nothing to do with its Trade Surplus (which Shrank more than expected)

2022-12-11

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2022-12-11

The G10 currencies traded with a heavier bias against the dollar last week. The Swiss franc was the sole exception, and it edged up about 0.25%. The thwarted putsch in Germany and the relaxation of vaccine and quarantine protocols in China were notable developments.

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Central Banks. CPI. Technicals. The major drivers in the markets this week.

2022-12-10

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A look at the technicals in play as well for the week starting December 12, 2022. The week is finally here.  The US CPI will kickstart the markets on Tuesday and that will transition into the Fed decision on Wednesday. Then when that is done, the SNB, BOE and ECB will all announce their interest rate decisions on Friday before the transition into the year end.   To better prepare, it is important to understand the key levels in play from a...

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Five G10 Central Banks Meet and US CPI on Tap

2022-12-10

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2022-12-10

Half of the G10 central banks meet in the week ahead. The Fed is first on December 14, and the ECB, BOE, Swiss National Bank, and Norway's Norges Bank meet the following day. Before turning a thumbnail sketch of the central banks, let us look at the November US CPI, which will be reported as the Fed's two-day meeting gets underway on December 13.

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Chinese Stocks Extend Rally Even Though Covid Infections Appear to be Spreading

2022-12-09

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2022-12-09

Overview: The easing of vaccination, quarantine, and some travel protocols related to Covid in China (and Hong Kong) continues to draw funds back into Chinese stocks, wherever they trade. The Hang Seng rose 2.3% today to close the week with a nearly 6.6% advance. The index of mainland companies that trade there rose 2.5% on the day for a7.3% weekly gain. The CSI 300 of mainland shares rose 1% today and almost 3.3% for the week. Japan’s 1% gain...

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HMMMMM.. What are the forex technicals saying heading into the last day of the trading week?

2022-12-09

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A technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. The USD has a lower bias heading into Friday's trading vs the EUR, AUD and NZD helped by the run lower on Thursday.  The USDJPY is more neutral as it trades between the 100/200 hour MAs With the EURUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD tilting more to the upside, what targets lie above and what are the risk levels that might hurt the bullish bias heading into the new trading day? With the USDJPY...

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The Head and Shoulders Pattern Checklist

2022-12-08

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Technical analysis uses a head-and-shoulders pattern. It forecasts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. The pattern is a baseline with three peaks, with the middle peak tallest. To recognize a head-and-shoulders trend reversal, grasp how they're formed. When investors lose interest, the left shoulder develops. The head develops when excitement rises and falls to the stock's prior low. The right shoulder occurs when the stock price climbs then...

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Political Developments Overshadow Economics

2022-12-08

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2022-12-08

Overview: There is nervous calm in the capital markets today.  The weakness of US shares yesterday is taking a toll today. An exception in the Asia Pacific region is the Hang Seng and the index of mainland shares that trade there, which up around 3.5% today on thUe easing of some Covid protocols.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off for a fifth day, its longest losing streak in nearly two months. US futures are posting minor gains. Benchmark 10-year yields...

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What technical levels are in play for some of major currency pairs today.BOC rate decision

2022-12-07

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The EURUSD is running back to the upside after moving above the 100 hour MA. The 200 hour MA stalled the fall earlier in the day giving the buyers some hope. The USDJPY is moving lower and below its 200 hour MA in early trading after the break above failed. The GBPUSD is moving higher and looks toward the 100 hour MA above at 1.2220. The USDCAD will be influenced by the BOC rate decision at 10 AM ET. The expectations are between 25 and 50...

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Risk Appetites Challenged after US Equities Tumble

2022-12-07

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2022-12-07

Overview: The sharp sell-off of US stocks yesterday as sapped the risk appetite today. Equities are being sold. Hong Kong and the index of mainland shares that are listed there led the regional decline with 3.2%-3.3% losses. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off about 0.65% in late morning turnover, the fourth day of losses. US futures are trading with a lower bias as well. European 10-year bonds are mostly 1-2 bp firmer. The US 10-year Treasury is practically...

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The major forex currency pairs are seeing up and down price action.What to look for today?

2022-12-06

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A technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD after the RBA rate hike. There is up and down price action in some of the major currency pairs. In the morning forex technical report, I look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and the AUDUSD after the RBA rate hike and outline the levels in play after up and down activity dominated the trading action so far today.

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Yesterday’s Dollar Recovery Questioned Today

2022-12-06

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2022-12-06

Overview: The 11 bp jump in the 10-year US yield yesterday after dropping nearly 26 bp in the previous three sessions, helped the greenback recover and took a toll on stocks. Still, the S&P 500 is above the low set on November 30 (~3939) before Fed Chair Powell's talk that day.

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MORNING VIDEO: A look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective

2022-12-05

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What levels are in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and why? The new trading week is underway, with the EURUSD making a new cycle high and backing off. The USDJPY started below its 200 day MA after closing below that key level on Friday, but has moved back higher and looks toward the 38.2% of the range last week (and high from Friday). The GBPUSD has seen up and down action in that pair today. A new cycle high was made above an upside...

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