Category Archive: 4) FX Trends
February 2023
The
new year began amid optimism among investors. Equities and bonds rallied in
January, clawing back some losses from last year. The dollar traded heavily,
falling against most G10 and emerging market currencies. However, after the February 1 FOMC meeting, the dollar's sell-off exhausted the
near-term selling pressure. An upside correction may be seen in the first
part of February. We see this as a countertrend move and expect dollar weakness
to...
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The strong US jobs report sends the USD sharply higher. What next?
The US jobs report came in much stronger than I expected at 517K. That has us at the US dollar sharply to the upside. What are the technicals telling us now as the bias shifts from more bearish USD, back to more bullish
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The Dollar Pares Yesterday’s Gains but Near-term Change in Sentiment may be at Hand
Overview: The dollar remained firm yesterday, even
after the ECB's hawkish stance, reaffirming its intention to hike rates by
another 50 bp next month. We had expected the greenback to have been sold in
North America yesterday. That this did not materialize warns that despite its
pullback in Asia and especially Europe today, that near-term sentiment may be
changing with the Fed and ECB meetings over and die cast for next month, where
the Fed is...
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North America likely will Sell USD Bounce Seen in Europe
Overview: The failure of the Federal Reserve to push harder against the market's dovish views and the easing of financial conditions encouraged a risk-on trade that saw the dollar and yields slump and equities rally. There has been limited follow-through dollar selling today, and a small recovery ahead of the Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings.
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AAPL stock technical analysis before earnings
Technical analysis for Apple Stock ahead of earnings on February 2nd, 2023.
A look at the current levels for Apple stock and potential targets.
Trade with caution and be aware of potential risks.
Visit ForexLive.com for a broader perspective.
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FOMC Day! Find out the key levels for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD through the decision.
Get an in-depth technical analysis of the major currency pairs
- EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD
- heading into the Federal Reserve's rate decision at 2 PM ET.
This video covers the biases, risk levels, and targets for each of the currency pairs to help you be aware and prepared.
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The ADP comes in weaker and sends the dollar lower ahead of the FOMC decision.
Get a detailed technical analysis of the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD ahead of the FOMC rate decision on Feb 1, 2023.
The US ADP employment report came in weaker than expected, leading to a drop in the value of the US dollar. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, making it crucial to watch what Fed Powell has to say.
This morning's forex technical report provides an in-depth look at the technical levels, bias, risk levels,...
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Will What the Fed Says be More Important than What it Does?
Overview: The focus is squarely on the Federal Reserve today. There is nearly universal agreement that it will lift the target by 25 bp. The market is inclined to see the shift as a sign that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, and sees, at most, one more quarter-point hike. Despite the Fed's warnings, including in the December FOMC minutes, about the premature easing of financial conditions, the market has done precisely that.
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S&P technical analysis, 31 Jan, before Jerome Powell (tommorrow)
In this follow-up video to the recent analysis, Greg Michalowski of ForexLive.com updates on the buyers' eagerness and their behavior in the S&P 500 futures market.
Watch the updated zone between the black and blue lines drawn on the chart, as discussed in the video.
Set up alerts on your chart with triggers on daily CLOSE to reduce the risk of false signals. Stay up to date with additional market insights by visiting ForexLive.com.
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The US employment cost data gives the USD a shove to the downside in early NY trading
Hopes for lower inflation helps stocks recover as well and sends yields lower.
The better US employment cost data has helped to lower the dollar, send stocks higher and yields lower in early NY trading.
In the morning forex technical report, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and the AUDUSD as they show the impact from the lower dollar after the data.
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Position Adjustments at Month-End and Ahead of FOMC Outcome Lifts the Greeenback
Overview: A combination of month-end adjustments and
positioning ahead of the outcome of tomorrow's FOMC meeting has taken the shine
off equities and has helped lift the dollar. On the heels of yesterday's sharp
decline on Wall Street, several large markets in the Asia Pacific region,
including China's CSI 300, the Hang Seng, and both South Korea's Kospi and
Taiwan's Taiex fell by more than 1%. Although the eurozone eked out a small
expansion in Q4...
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S&P 500 futures technical analysis, ES is correcting, watch 4000 and 3992 next.
The S&P 500 futures market, symbolized as ES, is undergoing a correction phase. In this video, we'll be taking a technical look at key price levels to watch, specifically the levels of 4000 and 3992. Stay informed and up-to-date on the current market trends with this analysis.
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The forex markets are mostly consolidating as the new trading week begins
The Forex Market Update: EURUSD makes a run while GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD see mixed price action. In this morning's forex report, we take a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, and USDCAD. The EURUSD is pushing upwards and is back above its 100-hour MA. Can it sustain this trend?
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Anti-Climactic Return of China
Overview: The re-opening
of China's mainland market amid reports of strong activity during the holiday,
was relatively subdued. The CSI 300 rose less than 0.5% and the Shanghai
Composite eked out less than a 0.2% gain. The 0.5% gain in the yuan was largely
in line with the performance of the offshore yuan. Indeed, it seems like a bit
like "buy the rumor sell the fact" type of activity as Hong Kong's
Hang Seng tumbled 2.75%, to give back...
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Week Ahead Alchemy: Can Powell Turn a Quarter-Point Move into a Hawkish Hike?
The new year is still
young, but the week ahead may be one of the most important weeks of
the year. The divergence that the market has been anticipating will
materialize. The Federal Reserve will most likely hike by 25 bp on Wednesday,
followed by half-point moves by the European Central Bank and the Bank of
England the following day. On Friday, February 3, the US will report its
January employment situation. It could be the slowest job creation...
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Bannockburn World Currency Index Recoups 50% of Loss since June 2021 High, with Golden Cross
The Bannockburn’s World Currency Index (BWCI) is a
GDP-weighted currency basket representing the currencies of the top 12
economies, with the eurozone counted as one.
The US is the world’s largest economy and the dollar’s share
of the index is almost 31%. China is the second-largest economy and has a
nearly 22% weight.
The euro is next with a 19% weight, followed by Japan with
about a 7.5% weight. After that, the weights drop off to less than 5%...
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Subdued Ending to a Quiet Week, Ahead of Next Week’s Fireworks
Overview: Leaving aside the Australian dollar, which
is benefiting from the optimism over China's re-opening and a reassessment of
the trajectory of monetary policy after a stronger than expected inflation
report, the other G10 currencies traded quietly this week and are +/- less than
0.5%. The risk-on honeymoon to start the year remains intact. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index has risen every day this week and index of mainland shares that
trade in...
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Euro Closed above $1.09 but Follow-Through Buying Limited
Overview: After
some intraday penetration, the euro finally settled above $1.09 yesterday. However,
follow-through buying has been limited and technical and option-related
resistance is seen in the $1.0940-50 area. The dollar is more broadly mixed
today, with the dollar-bloc and Norwegian krone leading the advancers. The
euro, yen, and sterling are nursing small losses near midday in Europe. The
recovery of US equity indices yesterday after gap...
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An eye opening forecast for the stock market in 2023 aided by volume profile analysis @ForexLive.com
Learn about the powerful technique of Volume Profile and how it can give you insight into the market's future direction. See how @Forexlive expert Itai Levitan uses it to predict the stock market by identifying key levels of support and resistance. Understand how volume activity at different price levels can indicate market sentiment and potential price movements.
Don't miss out on this valuable information and visit ForexLive.com for more...
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