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Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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EURUSD moves higher (lower dollar) and tests the 100/200 hour MA

2023-05-10

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Discover the recent sharp rise in EURUSD after the release of US CPI data. Stocks are up, and yields are lower. Watch as we analyze the pair's testing of the 100/200-hour moving averages (1.1003 - 1.1008) and the significant 50% retracement level (1.10157) from last week's high. Breaking above these levels indicates a more bullish outlook. Stay tuned for a concise technical analysis of EURUSD, uncovering key levels and insights. Subscribe for...

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Narrow Ranges in FX: Calm before the Storm?

2023-05-10

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2023-05-10

Overview: Equity markets are mostly weaker, and benchmark 10-year yields are a little softer. The foreign exchange market is subdued ahead of today’s US CPI. The large bourses in Asia Pacific region with the exception of India worked lower and Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off for the second consecutive session. US futures have a heavier bias. Yesterday the US bank share indices filled the gap created at the end of last week but recovered. Today’s price...

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USDCAD rotates from oversold levels to swing area resistance

2023-05-09

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Join us as we analyze the recent rebound in USDCAD from oversold levels. Yesterday, buyers stepped in near April's lows around 1.33137, preventing further downside. Today, the price has rallied to a high near 1.3406, entering a swing area between 1.34044 and 1.34214. For the buyers to maintain control, surpassing this level is crucial. Traders will then set their sights on the key 200-day moving average at 1.34459. Stay informed about the USDCAD...

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USDCHF makes a break into a more bullish bias today

2023-05-09

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In this video, we analyze the recent price action of USDCHF. Today, the price of USDCHF made a notable move back above the 200-hour Moving Average (MA) at 0.8911, which has shifted the bias more towards the upside. The buyers showed support near the MA during a corrective dip, providing confirmation for further upward movement. What can we expect next for USDCHF? Watch the video to gain valuable insights and a comprehensive analysis of the price...

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Consolidative Session Marked by Weak Chinese Imports and White House Debt Ceiling Talks

2023-05-09

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2023-05-09

Overview: The market sentiment remains fragile. Equities are mostly lower. Japan was a notable exception, and concerns about China's economy after a sharp decline in imports took mainland and Hong Kong listed companies sharply lower. Europe's Stoxx 600 is giving back yesterday's 0.35% gain plus more. Bank shares are off 0.65% after rallying 4.20% over the past two sessions. US equity futures are heavier. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly a couple...

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USDCAD bounces higher after reaching toward April low

2023-05-08

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The USDCAD is bouncing after sharp selling took the price toward the April lows and a key swing area on the daily chart.  IN this video I look at the levels in play and explain why.

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The GBPUSD moved to a key target level on the daily chart, and found sellers. What next?

2023-05-08

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The GBPUSD moved to a key target level on the daily chart and found sellers. That level comes against swing eyes going back to 2022. Getting above it would open the door for further upside probing. Staying below it and moving below the low of the swing area 1.25987 would likely disappoint the buyers and lead to some downside probing.

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The USDJPY battle is on. In this video, I outline the key levels in play.

2023-05-08

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The USDJPY traders are battling it out with hourly moving averages stalling the move higher, and the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart, providing support.  A key swing area on the 4 hour chart is also a key resistance area that would need to be broken to increase a bullish bias.

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EURUSD trades above moving averages giving a modest bullish bias

2023-05-08

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The EURUSD traded up and down last week, with Friday's low stalling at a key "floor" level (the 50% of the move up from April low also stalled the fall).  Today, the price moved above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages and have been able to stay above on 2 separate tests today.  Those moving averages come between 1.1021 and 1.10278. They will be the barometer for trader's bias today (and going forward).  Stay above is more positive....

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The Greenback Continues to Struggle

2023-05-08

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2023-05-08

Overview: There is a nervousness that hangs over the capital markets. Although US banks shares recovered at the end of last week, many continue to see the sector’s challenges as the harbinger of a dramatic reversal in the Fed’s stance. America’s debt ceiling looms large and could be a few weeks away. China led Asia Pacific bourses higher, and, ironically, its bank shares extended their rally. Japan, returning from last week’s holiday was notable...

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S&P 500 e-mini futures technical analysis. Bulls still taking this market to 4200.

2023-05-06

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Week Ahead: Hawkish BOE, US and China CPI, but is the Fed Really Going to Cut Rates by 75-100 bp This Year?

2023-05-06

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2023-05-06

The combination of the US bank stress, the approaching debt ceiling, and the Fed's opening the door to a pause in rates weighed on risk sentiment and dragged the greenback lower. KBW's indices for large and regional bank shares bled 7.4%-8.0% lower last week to cut through March's lows like a hot knife through butter. Still the price action was constructive ahead of the weekend. US Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the X-date when the...

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USDCHF runs higher today and back above hourly MAs

2023-05-05

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The USDCHF moved to the lowest level since January 2021 this week, but found support buyers against state support area from the end of 2020/early 2021. In trading today, the pair got a boost from lower Swiss CPI inflation. That took the price above the 200 hour moving average or support buyers leaned.  The US employment report pushed price to the high for the day, before rotating back to the downside. What next? The 200 hour moving average is...

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USDCAD moves down toward a key support target

2023-05-05

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The USDCAD is moving closer to its 200 day moving average at 1.3440 after a couple days of steady selling in the pair.  Higher oil prices have contributed to the Canadian dollars strength. The price of oil intraday yesterday reached a low of $63.70 yesterday. It is trading above $71 today.   Will buyers come in against the 200 day moving average?

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USDJPY moves up to the 200 hour MA.. and stops

2023-05-05

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The USDJPY has moved higher after the US jobs reports, but found willing sellers near the broken 38.2% of the April to May trading range. The rise also found willing sellers near the 200 hour MA as well.  What now?  I speak to the pair and the options.

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The Greenback Remains Heavy Ahead of the Employment Report

2023-05-05

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2023-05-05

Overview: The US dollar is weaker against all the G10 currencies today but the Swiss franc. The backdrop seems fragile even though a few regional bank shares have done better in after-hours trading and Apple's earnings were received well by the markets. Due to seasonal factors and other considerations, many are warning about a US jobs report, even though ADP's estimate surprised to the upside earlier this week. Equities were mixed in the Asia...

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Markets reacting to the central banks and regional bank concerns

2023-05-04

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A technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD to start your trading day. The ECB matched the Fed hike of 25 basis points today. Yesterday the USD fell. Today the EUR fell after the hikes.  Go figure.  Concerns about banking is weighing and adding another dimension to the markets.   IN the report this morning, I strip out the fundamentals and focus on technicals on 3 the major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

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The Euro Stalled Near Its Best Level since April 2022 Ahead of ECB’s Decision

2023-05-04

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2023-05-04

Overview: Without making a commitment, the Federal Reserve opened the door to a pause in its tightening cycle and the market has concluded it is over. The dollar slumped to new lows for the move against sterling (and the Mexican peso), while euro stalled as it approached last week's high, which was the best level since April 2022. The dollar remains soft against most of the G10 currencies, today. The Norwegian krone is leading after the 25 bp hike...

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It is time to get ready for the FOMC fireworks. What levels are in play for major pairs.

2023-05-03

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The FOMC will announce a rate decision at 2 PM ET. The rotations are 25 basis points although the regional bank pressure has brought down the expectations a bit ahead of that rate decision.  The question may be how can the Fed execute a dovish hike. IN this report I look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD moved back above its 100/200 hour MAs tilting the bias more to the upside once again. The USDJPY fell back below its 100 hour MA but...

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Fed Day

2023-05-03

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2023-05-03

Overview: A sharper than expected decline in US job openings and weaker factory orders coupled with intensifying bank stress sent ripples through the capital markets. The large US bank index fell 4.5% yesterday, the most in six weeks, while the regional bank index fell nearly 5.5%, its biggest loss since March 13. Both indices took out the March lows. The US 10-year yield unwound Monday's increase and the two-year note yield fell back below 4.0%...

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