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Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

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Dollar Retreat Extended, but Turn Around Tuesday may have Already Begun

2023-11-20

by Marc Chandler

2023-11-20

Overview: Last week's dollar losses have been extended today. The yen is leading the move, encouraged by talk of a buying by a large US real money fund. The Dollar Index is off about 0.35% after sliding 1.8% last week. It is below the 200-day moving average for the first time since late August. As was the case last week, the Canadian dollar is the laggard. Emerging market currencies are also mostly higher. The Chinese yuan's 0.67% rise is the most...

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Yen Leads Charge Against the Dollar Amid Falling Rates

2023-11-17

by Marc Chandler

2023-11-17

Overview: The Japanese yen is leading the charge against the dollar today. Short covering in the Japanese bond market, the decline in US rates, and some reports of real money saw the dollar tumble to around JPY149.25 to approach the low for the month near JPY149.20. All the G10 currencies are firmer today, as are all but a few emerging market currencies. The Dollar Index finished October near 106.55 and it has been finding support near 104.00 in...

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Dollar Consolidates Amid Rate Volatility

2023-11-16

by Marc Chandler

2023-11-16

Overview: The dollar is consolidating its recent moves as interest rate swings continue. The US two-year yield has traded in a nearly 28 bp range in the first two sessions this week, and near 4.88% now, it is 18 bp lower since last Friday's close. The 10-year yield is slipping below 4.50%. It reached almost 4.70% on Monday and had fallen to almost 4.40% yesterday. Part of this reflects the shift in overnight rate expectations. The implied yield of...

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The Pendulum of Fed Expectations Swings Too Hard

2023-11-15

by Marc Chandler

2023-11-15

Overview: The capital markets' reaction to softer than expected CPI was too much. The implied yield of the December 2024 Fed funds futures fell by 25 bp as if the October's CPI was worth a full quarter-point rate cut next year. US two- and 1-year yields are around two basis points higher today and the dollar is mixed, with the euro and sterling under the most pressure. China's data were uninspiring, and more stimulus is in the pipeline. Japan's Q3...

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