Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily, April 22: Capital Markets Mostly Consolidate, Yen Drops

2016-04-22

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2016-04-22

Equity markets are seeing this week's gains trimmed after the S&P 500 fell 0.5% yesterday, recording its biggest loss in two weeks.  Disappointing earnings in some tech leaders spurred profit-taking, The US 10-year Treasuries are consolidati...

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Japanese Capital Flows: Six Observations

2016-04-21

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2016-04-21

The following observations are drawn from the weekly report of Japan’s Ministry of Finance unless noted otherwise.  We use the weekly data instead of monthly to identify changes of trend earlier.  We use simple convention of the week by the last rather than the first day. That means that the report for the week ending April …

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FX Daily, April 21: ECB Takes Center Stage

2016-04-21

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2016-04-21

The ECB meeting is the session's highlight.  In recognition of the risk that ECB President Draghi expresses displeasure with the premature tightening of financial conditions through the exchange rate channel is encouraged a modest bout of euro s...

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Status of 9/11 Bill and the Saudi Threat

2016-04-20

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2016-04-20

There continues to be much discussion among investors of New York Times report last weekend in which a Saudi official threatened to sell $750 bln of US Treasuries and assets if a bill that would allow families of victims to sue the Saudi governm...

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Forex Video: Why traders are not talking when they should be talking

2016-04-20

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The USDJPY bounce off a key level in trading today and moved higher. One follower of FXL wonders why the retail traders are not talking about the pair anymore, and he wonders why? The answer probably has to do with what happened in the past. The USDJPY had real good support at the 111.00 level …

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FX Daily April 20: Bulls’ Charge Stalls, while Greenback Consolidates Losses

2016-04-20

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2016-04-20

The US dollar has been largely confined to yesterday’s ranges against the major currencies. China’s yuan slipped lower for the first time in four sessions, while the Shanghai Composite fell 2.3%, the most since the end of February.   While a few equity markets in Asia managed to follow suit after US equity market gains carried …

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Making Sense of China’s Gold Fix and Hungary’s Dim Sum Offering

2016-04-19

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2016-04-19

Earlier today, China launched its first gold fix.  It will offer a fixing twice a day going forward yuan. The Shanghai Gold Exchange established the fix the same way it is done in London and New York, by prices submitted by financial institutions.  In China’s case, 18 institutions, including two foreign banks, participate in the …

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Some Thoughts on US Fiscal Policy

2016-04-19

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2016-04-19

The US presidential selection process is well underway, and yet there has been no coherent discussion of fiscal policy. In part, this is because it does not appear particularly urgent. The US deficit peaked in 2009 at 10.1% of GDP.  Last year it stood at what for most OECD countries an enviable 2.6%.  This year and next … Continue reading...

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FX Daily April 20: Markets Build on Yesterday’s Dramatic Recovery

2016-04-19

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2016-04-19

Global capital markets staged an impressive recovery after the initial reaction to the failure to freeze oil output sent reverberations through the oil markets, commodities, and Asian equities. The sharp reversal begun in Europe and extended in N...

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Forex Video: AUDUSD traders have a KEY decision to make in the new trading day

2016-04-18

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AUDUSD sits above a ceiling area but another trend line keeps another lid on the pair The AUDUSD has recovered from a gap lower over the weekend and is making new 2016 highs (trades at highest level since June 2015). It is hard to ignore the break. However, there is some topside resistance that has …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-04-18

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2016-04-18

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) EM ended last week on a firm note.  Given the absence of any Fed-specific risks or any major US data releases, that firmness could carry over into this week.  The failure to reach an agreement in Doha by oil pro...

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FX Daily, April 18: Doha Failure Sets Tone

2016-04-18

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2016-04-18

Oil producers failed to reach an agreement yesterday at the meeting in Doha.  That is the main spur to today’s activity.  It is not that the outcome was a surprise.  One newswire poll found around half of the respondents thought an agreement was elusive.   Although not oil experts by any stretch, we too thought political … Continue reading...

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Beware of Particularly Challenging Week Ahead

2016-04-17

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2016-04-17

It is never easy, but the week ahead may be particularly difficult for market participants. It will first have to respond to weekend developments.   First, the front page of the NY Times on Saturday was a report that the Saudi Arabia warned the US if a bill making its way through Congress that would allow it (Saudi … Continue reading...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Yen Speculators Continue to Press

2016-04-16

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2016-04-16

Disclosure

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FX Weekly: The Dollar’s Technical Condition Remains Vulnerable

2016-04-16

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2016-04-16

The US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week, which given the softer than expected inflation, retail sales data, and industrial output figures, coupled with the poor technical backdrop, could be a signal that its decline in recent months has run its course.    The dollar-bloc continued its advance, led by the Australian dollar’s nearly …

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SDR Does Not Stand for Secret Dollar Replacement

2016-04-15

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2016-04-15

At the IMF/World Bank meetings this week, Chinese officials are again pushing for greater use of the IMF's unit of account, Special Drawing Rights.   It is China's turn as the rotating host of the G20, which gives it greater influence over its ag...

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Weekly Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-04-15

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2016-04-15

Bank Indonesia will use the 7-day reverse repo rate as its new benchmark policy rate The ruling party in South Korea unexpectedly lost parliamentary elections The Monetary Authority of Singapore eased monetary policy to recession settings Turkey has nominated its next central bank chief The Brazilian special lower house committee voted 38-27 in favor of …

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FX Daily, 04/15: Better Chinese Data Fails to Deter Pre-Weekend Profit-Taking

2016-04-15

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2016-04-15

China’s slew of economic data lends credence to ideas that the world’s second-largest economy may be stabilizing.  However, the data failed to have a wider impact on the global capital markets, including supporting Chinese equities.  In fact,  the seven-day advance in the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index was snapped with a fractional loss today. European shares are …

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BOE and Brexit

2016-04-14

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2016-04-14

No one can feign surprise that the Bank of England kept policy steady.  Nor was the 9-0 vote truly surprising, though there had been some speculation of a couple of dovish dissents.  Nevertheless, there are two important takeaways for investors. First, the BOE recognized what many in the market have already accepted; namely that the … Continue...

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Great Graphic:Is that a Head and Shoulders Top in Gold?

2016-04-14

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2016-04-14

This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg shows the price of gold over the last six months.  The price peaked a month ago near $1285.  It seems a distribution top is being formed.   Specifically, it looks like a potential head and shoulders to...

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