Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Weekly Speculative Positions: Big Position Adjustment for Euro, Smaller for Yen

2016-02-07

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2016-02-07

The latest Commitment of Traders report covers the week ending February 2 that included the FOMC meeting and the BOJ's surprise cut.  There was also speculation of a potential deal between Russia and OPEC to cut output.  Speculative position adjustment in the futures market was more limited than one might have expected. Speculators cut 10.5k gross …

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Dollar Beaten Back but Cynicism is Unwarranted

2016-02-06

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2016-02-06

From a technical perspective, the dollar's pullback has been largely corrective in nature. Leaving aside the yen, against the other major currencies, the dollar is correcting a run-up that began in mid-October.  The chief exception is sterling, which...

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Brief Thoughts on Chinese Capital Flows Ahead of the Year of the Monkey

2016-02-05

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2016-02-05

Chinese markets will be closed next week for the Lunar New Year celebration.  However, over the weekend, China will report its January reserve figures.  The market suspects that the PBOC burnt through another $120 bln of reserves. China's reserves stood at $3.81 trillion in January 2015.  They are expected to stand near $3.21 trillion as …

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-02-05

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2016-02-05

In the EM equity space, UAE (+6.2%), Indonesia (+4.0%), and Qatar (+1.8%) have outperformed this week, while Hong Kong (-2.0%), Czech Republic (-1.9%), and Hungary (-1.2%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM fell -0.1% this w...

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Employment Details Better than the Headlines

2016-02-05

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2016-02-05

The US created fewer jobs than anticipated and the December gain was revised lower.  However, the other details were favorable--better than expected.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.9%, a new cyclical low, despite the rise in the participation rate (62.7% from 62.6%). Average hourly earnings were stronger than expected at 2.5%.  The consensus expected …

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It is Not All About U.S. Jobs

2016-02-05

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2016-02-05

The US nonfarm payroll report typically dominates the first Friday a new month.  In recent years, it has become among the most important economic reports globally.  Not today.   The market's focus has shifted from Chinese stocks and yuan that dominated the first week or so, then oil, and now it is heightened concern about a … Continue reading...

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Pessimistic BOE Shakes but Doesn’t Break Sterling

2016-02-04

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2016-02-04

Sterling has neared the 50% retracement of the 11.5 cent decline since mid-December.  It is found near $1.4660.  After easing ahead of the BOE announcement, sterling was sold to $1.4530 on the initial headlines that showed the BOE was cutting its...

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Dollar Retreat Extends

2016-02-04

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2016-02-04

The US dollar remains under broad pressure after yesterday's sharp decline.  Neither dovish comments by ECB President Draghi, nor the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have managed to reverse the gains of their respective currencies.   Similar, the rise in US yields and firm equities have failed to push the yen lower.  Investors and policymakers are …

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When Irish Eyes are Smiling

2016-02-04

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2016-02-04

Apparently, when Irish eyes are smiling, it’s time to call an election. And that is what Prime Minister Kenny has done.  The election will be held on February 26.  The polls suggest that the governing coalition (Fine Gael and Labour) may struggle to secure a majority.   In some ways, Kenny is making the same bet … Continue reading...

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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense: Carry Trade Unwind

2016-02-03

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Marc attributes Euro strength and dollar weakness to the unwinding of the carry trade. With continued monetary divergence Marc expects the dollar to regain it’s footing into the March ECB meeting. Marc believes there will be no Plaza Accord 2.0 and the Saudi’s will not de-peg from the dollar.

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(3.4) More Thoughts on Negative Rates



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Forex Live Analysis Room show 606th + interview Marc Chandler

2016-02-03

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Join us for a unique Forex experience in the FXStreet Live Analysis Room. The #FXroom is being hosted by Dale Pinkert, long time and popular contributor on FXStreet. Trading in community. Know our Mastermind concept as we all edify each other 1+1=11 at http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/live-analysis/ Live Video and chat with experts and traders. Daily show 14 …

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Dollar Edges Lower, Markets Trying to Stabilize

2016-02-03

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2016-02-03

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile today as the global capital markets are trying to stabilize.  Oil prices have steadied, with WTI back above $30.   Bond markets are narrowly mixed though the 10-year US Treasury is steady near 1.85%.  Asian and European equities followed US markets lower, but American equities have stabilized, and …

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Great Graphic: Falling Equities and US Treasuries Blunt Impact of BOJ’s Surprise

2016-02-03

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2016-02-03

The yen is the strongest currency today.  Many are still referring to it as a safe haven.  However, this strikes us as a misuse of the concept.  Investors are not flocking to the yen to find quiet place to ride out the storm.  Rather the yen's strength is a reflection of the turmoil. As we … Continue reading »

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Cameron vs Brexit: Mission Accomplished

2016-02-02

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2016-02-02

  The EC draft proposals in response to the UK’s demands have been enthusiastically embraced by Prime Minister Cameron.  The wires quote Cameron as saying "I would opt in to EU membership on these good terms." The proposals presented by European Council President Tusk are weak on details that are still to be decided, though … Continue...

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Familiar Patterns Return to Capital Markets

2016-02-02

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2016-02-02

The decline in oil and equities are lifting European bonds and Treasuries.  The US dollar is firmer against most major and emerging market currencies.   We never put much stock in last week's seemingly euphoric speculation of a deal between Russia and OPEC to support oil prices.  As the speculation is unwound, anticipation of another large …

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(3.3) FAQ: The Why and What For of BOJ’s Negative Interest Rates



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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2016-02-01

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2016-02-01

As we suspected, the current EM bounce still has some legs.  The BOJ’s surprise easing helped EM and risk end on last week on a strong note, and we expect that to carry over into this week.  Within EM, we will start to see the first readings for January.     The biggest risk perhaps is the … Continue reading »

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Dollar Mixed to Start the Week

2016-02-01

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2016-02-01

Investors continue wrestling with the implications of last week's surprise rate cut by the Bank of Japan. . The yen is little changed against the dollar, near its 200-day moving average (~JPY121.50).  The euro moved from the upper end of its two-cent range last Thursday to the lower end on before the week.  The absence … Continue reading »

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New Month, Same Drivers

2016-01-31

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2016-01-31

On the very first trading day of the year, the Nikkei, DAX, and S&P 500 gapped lower, setting the tone to a particularly challenging month for investors.The last week and a half has been better, and this will likely carry over into the start of the new month.  Before January could slip into the history … Continue reading »

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