Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Is that Buzzing Sound Helicopter Money?

2016-03-24

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2016-03-24

Helicopter money is the rage.  Central banks are talking about it.  Economists are debating it.  The media is rife with coverage.     While it sounds important, it is not precisely clear what helicopter money means. It appears to have originated with Milton Friedman.  In 1969, he wrote: "Let us suppose now that one day a helicopter … Continue reading »

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ECB, Corporate Bonds, and Credibility

2016-03-23

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2016-03-23

The euro's rallied shortly after the ECB announced numerous monetary measures that in their totality were more than expected.  Many saw this as proof that monetary policy had lost its effectiveness, and central banks have lost credibility.    R...

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Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD looking for a short term bottom. Maybe…

2016-03-23

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The GBPUSD has fallen again today and in the process fell below a trend line on the 4-hour chart, but is the intraday price action telling us that perhaps the bottom may be forming? There is some support at the 1.4100 area to perhaps suggest one is in place. Here is why…

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Great Graphic: Brexit Fears Boost Sterling Put Buying

2016-03-23

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2016-03-23

The UK referendum is three months away.   Three-month options are a common benchmark for various market segments; from speculators, to fund managers to corporations.  Events over the past week have raised the risks that the UK votes to leave the EU. The market has responded forcefully today, and even if you only follow the spot …

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Forex technical analysis: The EURUSD has room to roam.

2016-03-23

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In the morning video, I look at the EURUSD and outline the bias and explain why there is room to roam and the target for trading today.

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Brexit Risks Rising

2016-03-22

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2016-03-22

  Many banks suggested that Swiss Franc long is the trade to hedge against the Brexit risk.Therefore this text by Marc Chandler is quite important for Switzerland. An ill-conceived strategy undermined by mismanagement and bad fortune is increasing the risks that the UK votes to leave the EU in June.    Nearly everything that could, has …

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GBPUSD: What is the price action and technical tools telling us

2016-03-22

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The GBPUSD has moved lower in trading today, but failed on a break of a technical support level. The pair has corrected and is moving back down. What is the price action and technical tools telling us? Who is in control and why? I will explain.

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Great Graphic: 10-Year Break-Evens and Oil

2016-03-22

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2016-03-22

Until last September, the Federal Reserve seems to play down the market-based measures of inflation expectations, preferring the surveys that showed views were anchored.    At the September 2015 FOMC meeting where the Fed had been expected to tighten until the August turmoil, officials cited among other considerations, the decline in market-based measures of inflation expectations. …

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Forex Technical Analysis:What now for the EURUSD after Belgium bombing

2016-03-22

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The Belgium terrorist bombings sent the EURUSD lower and traders scrambling. However there has been a rebound off the lows. What now as there is more calm?

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FX Daily, March 22: Terrorist Strike in Brussels Causes Market Angst

2016-03-22

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2016-03-22

A series of attacks at Brussels airport and metro casts a pall over the market.  The attacks come as Europe prepares what for many will be a long holiday weekend.  Gold, the dollar and yen seem to have been the beneficiaries.   Bonds are generally firmer and equities lower.   However, in late morning activity in London, …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-03-20

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2016-03-20

EM ended the week on a mixed note after posting strong post-FOMC gains. The bounce in risk seems likely to continue this week, with little on the horizon to derail it. Specific country risk remains in play, however, with heightened political concerns in Brazil and South Africa. Taiwan reports February export orders Monday, which are …

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FX Daily: When a Quarter is Two Halves

2016-03-20

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2016-03-20

The year started off poorly, to say the least. Equity markets plunged from the get-go.  The Nikkei, DAX and S&P 500 gapped lower on the first trading day of the year.   Emerging markets and commodities were smashed.   Many economists blamed the Federal Reserve for hiking rates in mid-December.   Pundits warned that the seven-year bull … Continue...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Pile into Sterling and Take Profits on Long Aussie

2016-03-19

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2016-03-19

After a relatively quiet period into the run-up to the ECB, speculative activity markedly increased in the CFTC reporting week ending the day prior to the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Two speculative gross currency position adjustments stand out.  First, speculators appeared to have bought a record amount of sterling contracts.  The gross long position more …

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FX Daily, 03/19: Greenback Remains Technically Vulnerable

2016-03-19

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2016-03-19

The US dollar had a difficult week.  The price action after the ECB meeting had undermined the technical tone, and the dollar took another leg down after the FOMC moved closer to the market expectation by reducing the number of rate hikes the median official thinks will be appropriate this year from four to two. … Continue...

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Was the FOMC decision made at the G20?

2016-03-19

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The direction for the Fed comes from the top and in late February Yellen attended the G20 in China. Global markets turned around almost immediately after the summit. Were there whispers about central banks doing more?

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Has the USDJPY bottomed? The charts are showing some bullish signs.

2016-03-18

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The USDJPY took out the year and 17 month lows this week but failed. Is that and the BOJ concerns about the currrency enough to see a bounce in next weeks trading (for week starting March 21, 2016)

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A Technical look at the GBPUSD for the week ending March 18, 2016

2016-03-18

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Greg Michalowski of ForexLive takes a technical look at the GBPUSD as the week ends and traders look forward to the new trading week.

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Weekly Emerging Markets: What has Changed?

2016-03-18

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2016-03-18

China press is reporting that policymakers are drafting rules for a so-called Tobin tax on yuan transactions.  This would seem to go against China’s efforts at making the yuan more accessible and liquid.  While it could deter speculative activity, th...

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Thoughts on Conspiracy Theories of the Dollar’s Losses

2016-03-18

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2016-03-18

In our work, we have argued that the dollar is having its third significant rally since the end of Bretton Woods.   The first rally was associated with Reagan though it began under Carter and followed 100 bp hike by a new Federal Reserve Chairman...

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FX Daily 03/18: Dollar Trims Losses Ahead of the Weekend

2016-03-18

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2016-03-18

The US dollar is firmer against most major and emerging market currencies to pare this week's decline.  There are three notable exceptions, and they are all in Asia.  For all practical purposes, the dollar is flat against the Japanese yen near JP...

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