Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Weekly Review, July 04 – July 08: Further SNB Interventions, Good Dollar Week

2016-07-10

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2016-07-10

In the Brexit month, the Swiss franc index clearly underperformed the dollar index. The major reason is that the dollar is seen as a better safe-haven than the Swiss Franc, possibly because Swiss sales are affected more when British demand falls.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Speculators Still Don’t Believe in the Greenback

2016-07-09

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2016-07-09

Commitments of Traders July 05 Speculative Positions
Speculators reduced their Net long CHF position (against USD) from 10.9K contracts to 8.7K contracts. In five of the eight currency futures, we track, speculators covered their gross short exposure and added to their gross long exposure.

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FX Daily, July 08: US Jobs Data, Little Policy Significance, Swiss Unemployment falls

2016-07-08

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2016-07-08

Positive job data in the United States are typically positive for both USD and EUR, because the odds of a rate hike are increasing. Consequently the EUR/CHF rose. In the last two days SNB interventions should have been smaller. The Swiss unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.3%.

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North American Jobs Report and Implications

2016-07-08

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2016-07-08

There is something for everyone in today's US jobs report, and at the end of the day, it is unlikely to sway opinion about the direction and timing of the next Fed move. The greenback itself may remain range bound after the initial flurry. On the other hand, the disappointing but noisy Canadian data underscores the risk of a more dovish slant to the central bank's neutral stance next week.

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FX Daily, July 07: Sterling Bounces Two Cents, but Does not Appear Sustainable

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Amid a better if not strong risk appetite, sterling has rallied two cents from yesterday's lows near $1.28 to poke through the $1.30 level in the European morning. It was helped by an industrial production report that was better than expected. Industrial and manufacturing output fell 0.5% in May. This was around half of the expected decline after a strong April advance (2.1% and 2.4% respectively).

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Plan your trade: A look at the key levels for the EURUSD through US employment report

2016-07-07

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The June US employment report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. The expectations are around 180K. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.8% from 4.7%. I don’t look to go into a high risk event with a position. There are better times to trade, but after the news is known, …

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Great Graphic: More Thoughts on Banks

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Italian banks have done worse that European banks. Italian banks outperformed Germany banks from end of H1 12 through H1 15. US banks and financials more broadly have outperformed Europe.

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Great Graphic: The Yuan’s Weakness

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Don't be fooled, the yuan has fallen more against its basket that against the dollar this year. It is not clear what China means by stable. Market forces appear to be moving in the same direction as officials wish.

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SIBOR Forex Banking Fraud – another FX rate rigging scandal

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

Forex has been the big banks secret gold mine, supporting their other losing operations (like normal banking business, lending, etc.). To a large extent this has been unraveling, and this SIBOR lawsuit is another attack on their risk free profit center (FX). Read the entire lawsuit released by Elite E Services here in full.

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FX Daily, July 06: Dollar and Yen Advance Amid Growing Investor Angst

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

What a difference a few days make. Many saw last week's equity market advance a sign that Brexit anxiety was overdone. However, quarter-end position adjustments appear to have been misread. Equity markets are falling now. Bond yields in the US, Japan, and Germany, are at new record low. Japan's 20-year bond yield briefly dipped below zero for the first time.

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Return of the Repressed: Europe’s Unresolved Banking Crisis

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

The IMF identified three banks that posted the most significant systemic risks. It has been overshadowed by new pressure on Italy's banks, and Three UK commercial real estate funds have been frozen to prevent redemptions.

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FX Daily, July 05: Sterling Hammered to New Lows, Yen Pops, SNB intervenes

2016-07-05

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2016-07-05

The British pound has been hammered to fresh lows just above $1.3115. The euro is moving toward GBP0.8500. The immediate catalyst is three-fold. First, one of the UK's largest property funds has moved to prevent retail liquidation. Second, the BOE reversed an earlier decision on the capital buffer for banks, which is tantamount to easing policy by boosting the banks' lending capability by as much as GBP150 bln.

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Forex trading video: EURUSD falls below 200 day MA.What next?

2016-07-05

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The EURUSD has fallen below the 200 day MA in trading today. That is nothing new if you look at recent history. The price has been trading above and below the MA line as traders ponder “Which way next” for the pair… Now yesterday the MA did hold. Today…not so lucky. In fact, the correction …

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Is Carney the Sole Adult in UK’s Political Morass?

2016-07-05

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2016-07-05

Sterling has fallen to $1.3050. Two real estate funds have suspended trading (liquidation). Constitutional crisis over who has authority to trigger Article 50 may have begun.

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(1.3.) Let’s improve the way we report FX rates

This post is motivated by recent headlines suggesting that the Chinese yuan has depreciated in recent days. Here's an example: China's yuan weakens to 5-1/2 low as c.bank tolerates depreciation. This headline is completely inaccurate - the Chinese yuan has been appreciating in recent days. So that's one problem I'd like to fix.

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FX Daily, July 04: Four Things that Happened on the Anniversary of the Original Brexit

2016-07-04

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2016-07-04

Inflation expectations fall in Japan. UK construction PMI fell sharply before Brexit. The Australian dollar recovers from the dip as investors await more results. It is not clear that Brexit has sparked a wave of nationalism or anti-EU sentiment.

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FX Weekly Preview: If No Article 50 Soon, What are the Fundamental Drivers?

2016-07-03

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2016-07-03

Impact of Brexit will take some time to be seen, but the U.K. is already losing influence. U.S. employment data is not sufficient to get the Fed to hike this month. Pressure continues to build on the BOJ to act.

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Weekly speculative Positions: Bulls and Bears Saw Speculative Opportunity in Euros

2016-07-02

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2016-07-02

In the sessions before and after the UK referendum speculators in the currency futures did three things. First, they generally reduced exposure. This means gross longs and short positions were reduced. CHF long positions increased to 10K Speculators were divided about what to do with the euro.

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FX Weekly Review: June 27 – July 01: Swiss Franc Strength Reversed

2016-07-02

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2016-07-02

Week after Brexit.: The Swiss franc (-0.3%) and the yen (-0.5%) were the worst performers, as so-called safe haven buying was reversed. But the Swiss Franc index is still stronger in the last month than the dollar index.

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Why the Fed Will Talk Down the Dollar

2016-07-01

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2016-07-01

And right now, in the wake of Brexit, tighter monetary policy is clearly not an option. Plus, a stronger dollar (by virtue of the “peg”) strengthens the Chinese Yuan and the Saudi Riyal… something neither country will tolerate.

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