Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily, May 18: Greenback Recovers as Rate Support is Enhanced

2016-05-18

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2016-05-18

Apart from GBP, the US dollar is rising against all the major currencies today.  The Australian dollar is retracing a sufficient part of its recent gains to suggest that the current phase of the US dollar’s recovery is not over. Given that the Aussie topped out a week before the other major currencies, it is reasonable …

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Cool Video: Chatting with Bloomberg’s Angie Lau in Hong Kong

2016-05-17

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2016-05-17

As the second week of this Asian business trip gets underway, I am in Hong Kong.  I was on Bloomberg TV in the Asian morning to discuss market developments with Angie Lau. The 4.5 minute discussion covers a number of topics, including the outlook for Fed policy, the BOJ, dollar outlook and game theory.   … Continue...

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FX Daily, May 17: The Meaning of Sterling and Aussie’s Advance Today

2016-05-17

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2016-05-17

The US dollar is mostly weaker today.  It appears to be consolidating the gains scored since the reversal on May 3. Sterling and the Australian dollar are leading the way early in Europe.   The Australian dollar’s gains appear more intuitively clear.  The minutes from the recent RBA meeting indicated that it was a closer decision.  This …

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Forex Trading Education: Attacking Currency Non-Trends

2016-05-17

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Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends focuses on trading non trending markets. What are the characteristics of a non trend? How you can anticipate a non trend? How you can define the non trending ceiling and floor?

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Brief Look at the Start of the New Week’s Activity

2016-05-16

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2016-05-16

The most notable thing is not what has happened, but what has not happened.  The market has not responded to the soft Chinese data over the weekend.  Chinese equities began softer but recovered fully and the Shanghai Composite closed on its highs.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is snapping a two-day losing streak with a … Continue reading...

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Emerging Markets Preview: Week Ahead

2016-05-16

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2016-05-16

EM ended last week on a soft note, and that weakness seems likely to carry over into this week. Dollar sentiment turned more positive after firm retail sales data on Friday, though US rates markets have yet to reflect any increase in Fed tightening expectations. Over the weekend,

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Are Dollar Fundamentals Lagging the Technical Improvement?

2016-05-15

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2016-05-15

The US dollar extended its recovery that began on May 3.  Its technical condition remains constructive, even though up until now, the gains are still consistent with a modest correction rather than a trend reversal.   The details of the employment report, if not the headline, coupled with the 1.3% increase in retail sales, have boosted …

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Significant Position Adjustments

2016-05-15

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2016-05-15

The US dollar staged an impressive reversal against many of the major foreign currencies on May 3. In the following week, speculators in the currency futures market made significant adjustment in their holdings. We identified a change in the gross position in the currency futures of 10k contracts or more to be significant.  In the week …

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Dollar’s Technical Tone Improves, but No Breakout (Yet)

2016-05-15

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2016-05-15

The US dollar continued the recovery begun May 3 and rose against most of the major currencies over the past week.  A nearly 3.5% rally in oil prices, the fifth weekly gain in the past six weeks (a $9.5 advance over the period), helped the Norwegian krone turn in a steady performance.  The Canadian dollar’s 0.2% … Continue...

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Forex Trading Education: Managing your trades by listening to the market price action

2016-05-13

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FOREX TRADING EDUCATION: The story can change in your forex trading dependent on a lot of things fundamentally and technicallly. Let’s face it, seeing the distant future can be really difficult. Earlier this week, the EURUSD moved above a key technical resistance level turning the bias higher. The price moved nicely above a few levels …

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Daily FX, May 13: Toward a New Mouse Trap

2016-05-13

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2016-05-13

The Great Financial Crisis has exposed a deep chasm in economics and economic policy.  No single institution is this crystallized more than at the Bank of Japan. The former Governor, Shirakawa brought policy rates to nearly zero to combat deflation. His successor, Kuroda, took the central bank in the completely other direction. He has introduced three …

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Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD finds sellers against the 38.2%

2016-05-11

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What are the technicals saying for the NZDUSD after less dovish comments from the RBNZ Financial Stability Report

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Forex Trading Education: How you can use narrow ranges to your trading advantage

2016-05-11

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If the range is narrow, there is room to roam. The EURUSD is trading at new session highs and also new week highs on the move above the 1.1419 level That extends what has been a very narrow trading range for the week The range coming into the day was only 61 pips. Looking back … Continue...

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FX Daily, May 12: Yen Recovers After Being Thrown for 2 percent

2016-05-11

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2016-05-11

The Japanese yen is recovering from two-day two percent decline.  The yen is the strongest of the majors today, rising about 0.6%.   The greenback initially extended its gains marginally in early Tokyo before the selling pressure emerging.  Th...

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FX Daily May 11: A Few Thoughts from Asian Business Trip

2016-05-10

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2016-05-10

Sometimes the mountain looks clearer from the plain the summit to paraphrase a American-Lebanese poet.   The dollar appears to have entered a new phase on May 3.  On that day, it reversed higher against the euro, yen, and sterling for lows not seen in a while.     It is tempting to construct a fundamental … Continue reading »

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Forex Trading Education: How does drilling down help in your trading

2016-05-09

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The price action on different charts often tells a story that you want to hear… I like to drill down and look at multiple time period charts to try and get clues as to “the markets” intentions for their trading. Price action does not lie and often times, by drilling down and applying tools, you …

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Dollar Drivers in the Week Ahead

2016-05-08

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2016-05-08

The key issue facing the foreign exchange market is whether the modicum of strength the US dollar demonstrated last week is the beginning of a sustainable move.  It is possible that the market is again at a juncture in which the price action will...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Cutting Longs in Yen and Swiss Franc

2016-05-07

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2016-05-07

Speculators in the futures market continued to pare short foreign currency positions but were cautious about expanding long positions in the CFTC reporting week ending May 3.  In fact, two of the three largest adjustments were the cutting of gross long Japanese yen and Australian dollar positions. Yen Speculators took profits on 11.8k contracts of …

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Key Dollar Developments Include Bottoming against the Dollar-Bloc

2016-05-07

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2016-05-07

The US dollar rose against all the major currencies last week. The importance of the price action does not lie with the magnitude or the breadth of the advance. Instead, the two takeaway technical observations are 1) the seemingly one-way market for euro and yen ended and 2) the dollar-bloc currencies appear to have put … Continue reading...

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Forex Trading Education: When things don’t go your way in your trading

2016-05-06

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The weaker Employment report sends the dollar higher (the EURUSD lower)… If I surveyed 100 people before the employment report, most would say a jobs gain of 160 with revision lower of 18K, and the unemployment rate going to 5% from 4.9% would be more bearish for the USD (higher EURUSD). IN reality, that was …

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