Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Great Graphic: The Yuan’s Weakness

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Don't be fooled, the yuan has fallen more against its basket that against the dollar this year. It is not clear what China means by stable. Market forces appear to be moving in the same direction as officials wish.

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SIBOR Forex Banking Fraud – another FX rate rigging scandal

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

Forex has been the big banks secret gold mine, supporting their other losing operations (like normal banking business, lending, etc.). To a large extent this has been unraveling, and this SIBOR lawsuit is another attack on their risk free profit center (FX). Read the entire lawsuit released by Elite E Services here in full.

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FX Daily, July 06: Dollar and Yen Advance Amid Growing Investor Angst

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

What a difference a few days make. Many saw last week's equity market advance a sign that Brexit anxiety was overdone. However, quarter-end position adjustments appear to have been misread. Equity markets are falling now. Bond yields in the US, Japan, and Germany, are at new record low. Japan's 20-year bond yield briefly dipped below zero for the first time.

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Return of the Repressed: Europe’s Unresolved Banking Crisis

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

The IMF identified three banks that posted the most significant systemic risks. It has been overshadowed by new pressure on Italy's banks, and Three UK commercial real estate funds have been frozen to prevent redemptions.

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FX Daily, July 05: Sterling Hammered to New Lows, Yen Pops, SNB intervenes

2016-07-05

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2016-07-05

The British pound has been hammered to fresh lows just above $1.3115. The euro is moving toward GBP0.8500. The immediate catalyst is three-fold. First, one of the UK's largest property funds has moved to prevent retail liquidation. Second, the BOE reversed an earlier decision on the capital buffer for banks, which is tantamount to easing policy by boosting the banks' lending capability by as much as GBP150 bln.

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Forex trading video: EURUSD falls below 200 day MA.What next?

2016-07-05

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The EURUSD has fallen below the 200 day MA in trading today. That is nothing new if you look at recent history. The price has been trading above and below the MA line as traders ponder “Which way next” for the pair… Now yesterday the MA did hold. Today…not so lucky. In fact, the correction …

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Is Carney the Sole Adult in UK’s Political Morass?

2016-07-05

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2016-07-05

Sterling has fallen to $1.3050. Two real estate funds have suspended trading (liquidation). Constitutional crisis over who has authority to trigger Article 50 may have begun.

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(1.3.) Let’s improve the way we report FX rates

This post is motivated by recent headlines suggesting that the Chinese yuan has depreciated in recent days. Here's an example: China's yuan weakens to 5-1/2 low as c.bank tolerates depreciation. This headline is completely inaccurate - the Chinese yuan has been appreciating in recent days. So that's one problem I'd like to fix.

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FX Daily, July 04: Four Things that Happened on the Anniversary of the Original Brexit

2016-07-04

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2016-07-04

Inflation expectations fall in Japan. UK construction PMI fell sharply before Brexit. The Australian dollar recovers from the dip as investors await more results. It is not clear that Brexit has sparked a wave of nationalism or anti-EU sentiment.

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FX Weekly Preview: If No Article 50 Soon, What are the Fundamental Drivers?

2016-07-03

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2016-07-03

Impact of Brexit will take some time to be seen, but the U.K. is already losing influence. U.S. employment data is not sufficient to get the Fed to hike this month. Pressure continues to build on the BOJ to act.

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Weekly speculative Positions: Bulls and Bears Saw Speculative Opportunity in Euros

2016-07-02

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2016-07-02

In the sessions before and after the UK referendum speculators in the currency futures did three things. First, they generally reduced exposure. This means gross longs and short positions were reduced. CHF long positions increased to 10K Speculators were divided about what to do with the euro.

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FX Weekly Review: June 27 – July 01: Swiss Franc Strength Reversed

2016-07-02

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2016-07-02

Week after Brexit.: The Swiss franc (-0.3%) and the yen (-0.5%) were the worst performers, as so-called safe haven buying was reversed. But the Swiss Franc index is still stronger in the last month than the dollar index.

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Why the Fed Will Talk Down the Dollar

2016-07-01

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2016-07-01

And right now, in the wake of Brexit, tighter monetary policy is clearly not an option. Plus, a stronger dollar (by virtue of the “peg”) strengthens the Chinese Yuan and the Saudi Riyal… something neither country will tolerate.

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Forex technical analysis: USDJPY finishes a fairly quiet week near 100 hour MA

2016-07-01

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The USDJPY is finishing the trading week near the 100 hour MA at 102.56. The pair spent the last two trading days mostly between the 100 hour and 200 hour MAs. Those levels will define the close range in trading in the early week. Look for the break and run.

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EURUSD ends the week on a soft note. What’s in store for next week?

2016-07-01

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The EURUSD has moved a little lower in the last few hours of trading – holding against the 200 hour MA in the process. The 50% retracement level held earlier today. So the pair has a bit of a negative bias heading into the weekend For trading next week, the pair will be looking toward … Continue...

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FX Daily, July 01: Markets Head Quietly into the Weekend

2016-07-01

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2016-07-01

EUR/CHF finished the week after Brexit with slight improvement of 0.18%. The scare mongering by the Swiss media was misplaced. The euro even recovered from a dip after BoE governor Carney's comments on Thursday. We do not see strong SNB interventions at this elevated price level. We judged that the interventions happened below 1.08.

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FX Daily, June 30: Calm Continues, but Rot Below the Surface

2016-06-30

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2016-06-30

During the week the Swiss Franc lost momentum. It could regain speed only on June 30, after BoJ Carney's speech.

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Great Graphic: What are UK Equities Doing?

2016-06-30

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2016-06-30

Domestic-oriented UK companies have been marked down. The outperformance by UK's global companies is a negative view of sterling. The drop in interest rates is in anticipation of a recession and easier BOE policy.

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FX Daily, June 29: Fragile Calm Ahead of Quarter-End

2016-06-30

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2016-06-30

Sterling is firmer, but quarter-end considerations seem to be the key driver. Poor Japanese retail sales keep focus on policy response likely next month. New Zealand and Australian dollars are leading today's advance against the US dollar.

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The Worst is Yet to Come–Don’t be Seduced by the Price Action

2016-06-29

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2016-06-29

The two-day bounce in sterling seems technically driven rather than fundamental. The Brexit decision has set off a unfathomable chain of events whose impact and implications are far from clear. The economic hit on the UK may spur a BOE rate cut, even if not QE, as early as next month.

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