Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily, December 29: Dollar, Equities and Yields Fall

2016-12-29

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2016-12-29

FX Performance, December 29 2016 Movers and Shakers
In thin holiday markets, a correction to the trends seen in Q4 has materialized. The US dollar is heavy. Japanese and European equities are lower. Bonds are firmer.

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Cool Video: Double Feature on Bloomberg

2016-12-28

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2016-12-28

Marc Chandler
I am finishing the year like I began it, on Bloomberg Television, talking about the dollar and Fed policy. Bloomberg has made two clips of my interview available.

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FX Daily, December 28: Short Note for Holiday Markets

2016-12-28

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2016-12-28

FX Performance, December 28 2016 Movers and Shakers
Economic data: Japan stands out with industrial production in Nov rising 1.5%, the most in five months. It was a little less than expected, but the expectations for Dec (2%) and Jan (2.2%) are constructive.

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Great Graphic: Real Wages

2016-12-28

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2016-12-28

Real Wages 2007 - 2015
This Great Graphic caught my eye. It was tweeted by Ninja Economics. Her point was about immigration. German had much higher immigration than the UK, but also saw real wage increase of nearly 14% in the 2007-2015 period, while real wages in the UK fell nearly 10.5%.

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FX Daily, December 27: Markets Becalmed in Wait-and-See Mode

2016-12-27

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2016-12-27

Japan Construction Orders YoY, November 2016
As skeleton teams return to the trading desks in New York, the US dollar is largely where they left it at the end last week. Japanese markets were open yesterday, while UK, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Canadian markets are still closed today.

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FX Outlook 2017: Politics to Eclipse Economics

2016-12-26

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2016-12-26

Economic Events: United Kingdom, Week December 26
Investors are familiar with a broad set of macroeconomic variables that often drive asset prices. Many are familiar with corporate balance sheets, price-earning ratios, free cash flow, Q-ratio, and the like.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: After Fed Rate Hike, Speculators Close their Short CHF and Open Long CHF

2016-12-26

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2016-12-26

speculative position 20161226
The expiry of the December currency futures may spurred more than normal speculative position adjusting. The out-sized 27.9k contract jump in the speculative gross long Swiss franc futures position is a prime example.

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FX Weekly Review, December 19 – December 23: Assessment of the Dollar’s Technical Condition

2016-12-26

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2016-12-26

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, December 23
The small adjustment to Fed’s anticipated path for the Fed funds target helped lift the US dollar to its highest level against the euro since 2003, and to ten-month highs against the Japanese yen. The graph shows that the dollar has improved by 25% against the euro, but only by 10% against CHF over the last 3 years.

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FX Daily, December 23: Markets Edge into Holiday Weekend

2016-12-23

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2016-12-23

FX Performance, December 23 2016 Movers and Shakers
Asian shares trade heavily. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index ex-Japan fell 0.4%. It is the fourth lower close this week and brings the loss to 1.75% for the week. It is fallen in seven of the past nine weeks. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed on the session and is nursing a minor loss on the week and could snap a two-week advance.

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Where Do US Companies Hire Abroad?

2016-12-23

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2016-12-23

High-wage economies of Canada, EU, Japan and Australia account for nearly half of US corporate employment abroad. And even in low-wage regions, the high-wage parts tend to draw more US employment. The new US administration may have second thoughts about pivot to Asia, but US companies may not.

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FX Daily, December 22: Mixed Dollar amid Light News as Investors Move to Sidelines

2016-12-22

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2016-12-22

FX Performance, December 22 2016 Movers and Shakers
GBP/CHF rates have dipped over the past week, as the markets start to slowdown ahead of the Christmas period. Market trends become harder to predict at this time of year, due to the fact there is less capital injected by investors. Less liquidity ultimately equals less stability and the Pound may be suffering due to investors pulling their funds away from it and into safer haven currencies such as the CHF.

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Inflation Sensation: The New Big Deal

2016-12-22

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2016-12-22

Price Buster, Economists forecast inflation will soon break through U.S. and U.K. central banks' goals
It's finally coming. Inflation. President-Elect Donald Trump's promised a whole lot of infrastructure spending, raising the prospects for a great slug of price pressure the likes of which we haven't seen in years. Analysts' forecasts and financial markets show a dramatic shift in view on the outlook for inflation. These charts show some metrics worth watching.

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FX Daily, December 21: Dollar Mixed in Thinning Activity, Dow 20,000 Watch Continues

2016-12-21

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2016-12-21

FX Performance, December 21, 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is narrowly mixed as the holiday markets make for light turnover. Global equity markets are not finding much encouragement from the new record highs by the Dow Jones Industrials. There have been a few developments to note.

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You Know what Happened to Nominal Exchange Rates, but What about Effective Exchange Rates?

2016-12-21

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2016-12-21

BISBCNR Index
Yen is up slightly this year on an effective trade weighted basis. The euro has gained about 1% this year on an effective trade weighted basis. Sterling's decline has been significant on an effective basis. The yuan's decline looks to have corrected overshoot and is still holding an 11-year uptrend on the BIS real effective basis.

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FX Daily, December 19: EUR/CHF Dives under 1.07

2016-12-19

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2016-12-19

FX Performance, December 19 2016 Movers and Shakers
Once again a line in sand for the Swiss National Bank is broken. The EUR/CHF falls under 1.07. But trading algorithms are like this: When the EUR/USD is falling, then the EUR/CHF must follow. The SNB decided not to intervene any more at 1.07.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Short CHF Close to Records of 2015

2016-12-19

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2016-12-19

The net short CHF speculative position is close to reaching new records. Shortly before the end of the peg, speculators were net short CHF by 26.4K contracts. Now we are at 25.4K.

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FX Weekly Preview: Twas the Week Before Christmas, Amidst Powerful Trends

2016-12-19

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2016-12-19

Santas workshop
The Nikkei, the dollar-yen and 10 yr US yield have risen nine of the past 11 weeks. The Dollar Index and 2 yr US yields have risen while gold has sold off in eight of past 11 weeks. Issue in next two weeks, profit-taking or trend extension? Spoiler alert: I expect some profit-taking.

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BIS: A Paradigm Shift on Bond Yields?

2016-12-18

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2016-12-18

Review of recent BIS report. US election spurred a substantial change in sentiment. Equity and bond market reactions are roughly similar to when Reagan was elected, with the dollar, at least initially, stronger than then.

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FX Weekly Review, December 12 – December 16: Fed Lifts Dollar, but Consolidation may be on Tap

2016-12-18

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2016-12-18

USD/CHF compared to USD/EUR, 2011-2016 US Dollar Swiss Franc Euro
The small adjustment to Fed’s anticipated path for the Fed funds target helped lift the US dollar to its highest level against the euro since 2003, and to ten-month highs against the Japanese yen. The graph shows that the dollar has improved by 25% against the euro, but only by 10% against CHF over the last 3 years.

Read More »