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Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

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It’s All About Anticipation

2018-09-07

In many things in life, you can often find ways to anticipate what might happen next. In essence, you see the future. Athletes do it all the time. Animators also make cartoons come more alive, by using cues that anticipate what will happen next. Trading is no exception. If you want to become a better … Continue reading »

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FX Daily, September 6: Fragile Calm Weighs on Greenback

2018-09-06

by Marc Chandler

2018-09-06

The global capital markets are calmer today. This is not preventing the MSCI Emerging Market Index from extending its drop into the seventh consecutive session, but there has been a respite in the sell-off of emerging market currencies, where the Mexican peso, South African rand, Turkish lira, and Indonesian rupiah are modest, modest gains. At the same time, the Philippine peso, Korean won, and Indian rupee continued to weaken.

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FX Daily, September 05: Continuing EM Pain Helps the Dollar, but does Little for Yen

2018-09-05

by Marc Chandler

2018-09-05

The dollar is posting gains against most of the emerging market and major currencies. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is off 1.6% and extending the drop to a sixth consecutive session. Indonesia's bourse saw the largest decline (~3.75%) in the region. In part, it reflects concern that the rupiah's weakness (falling now nine of the past 10 sessions) will boost corporate debt servicing costs.

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Cool Video: Emerging Markets Continue to Sell-Off

2018-09-05

by Marc Chandler

2018-09-05

Marc Chandler

I had the privilege of being on the Bloomberg set with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua earlier today. Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of ECRI also joined us for the discussion. This 6.5 min video clip captures the essence of the discussion. The US dollar was rallying against all the major and most EM currencies.

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Chandler Sees Ongoing EM Woes While Fed Still Tightening

2018-09-04

by Marc Chandler

Sep.04 — Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, and Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of Ecri, discuss the outlook for emerging markets amid the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. They talk with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

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FX Daily, September 04: Dollar Gains Broadly

2018-09-04

by Marc Chandler

2018-09-04

The US dollar is rising against all the major and emerging market currencies today. The signals from the White House suggest strong pressure will be exerted on Canada to sign on to NAFTA 2.0 or risk losing part of its auto sector, which of course is primarily the production of US brands. At the same time, the US is in no mood to negotiate with Europe or China.

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FX Weekly Preview: Trade Trumps US Jobs and Rising Stress in Spain and Italy is More Important than the PMI

2018-09-03

by Marc Chandler

2018-09-03

The first week of a new month features the US jobs data. It is the most important economic report of a new month. It sets the broad tone for much of the economic data over the next several weeks, including consumption, industrial production, and construction spending. However, there are two reasons why it may not pack the punch it has in the past.

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The Big Picture 18-24-Month Outlook: Some Preliminary Projections

2018-09-01

by Marc Chandler

2018-09-01

The winding down of the North's summer provides a suitable time to consider not the near-term outlook, which many investors do on a daily basis, but to reflect on where we are heading down the road a bit. What will the next 18-24 months hold? Of course, we harbor no illusions of prescient vision and accept the hazards of the assignment and so should the reader.

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FX Daily, August 31: Month-End Adjustments and Tentative Stabilization in Emerging Markets Ease Demand for Dollars but Not Yen

2018-08-31

by Marc Chandler

2018-08-31

The dramatic price action seen yesterday among several emerging market currencies is eased today, but here at month-end, demand for risk-assets is tentative at best. The macro backdrop, including the increase in US core inflation, expectations for continued hikes by the Federal Reserve, and unambiguous signals that trade tensions will increase in the coming weeks dampens the risk appetite.

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Trump wants to put $200 billion in tariffs on China ASAP

2018-08-30

Adam Button appears on BNN-Bloomberg to talk about the outlook for the Canadian dollar and the currency market after reports that Trump wants to announce $200 billion in tariffs on China immediately after the Sept 6 review. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/+Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

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FX Daily, August 30: Brexit Optimism Underpins Sterling

2018-08-30

by Marc Chandler

2018-08-30

The US dollar is mostly firmer, while global equities are softer and bonds little changed. The Turkish lira and South African rand remain under pressures. However, there does not appear to be an overall theme in today's markets. Disappointing data from Australia and New Zealand has seen the Antipodean currencies move lower. New Zealand's business confidence fell to a ten-year low, and this sent the Kiwi tumbling. Its nearly 0.9% fall...

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FX Daily, August 29: Dollar Finds Support, but Downside Correction May Not be Over

2018-08-29

by Marc Chandler

2018-08-29

The US dollar has steadied after pulling back in recent days, but the downside correction does not appear complete, and month-end flows are still a risk to picking a dollar-bottom. The Australian dollar is the weakest of the majors. The main drag is paradoxically Westpac, one of Australia's largest banks, raised the variable rate mortgage by 14 bp to 5.38%. Others are expected to follow.

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FX Daily, August 28: Greenback Remains On Defensive

2018-08-28

by Marc Chandler

2018-08-28

Corrective forces continue to weigh on the US dollar. Sometimes the narratives drive the price action and sometimes the price action drives the narratives. Currently the latter appears to hold sway. The dollar's downside correction began around the middle of the month, well before Powell's August 24 Jackson Hole speech.

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FX Daily, August 27: A Dog Day of Summer

2018-08-27

by Marc Chandler

2018-08-27

Last week's dollar losses were initially extended in Asia before it came back bid. The euro briefly poked through $1.1650 for the first time in three weeks. However, the gains were sold into, and the euro finished the Asian session near $1.16, where there is a 782 mln euro option expiring, and 2.4 bln euros struck at $1.1625.

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FX Weekly Preview: Macroeconomic Considerations

2018-08-27

by Marc Chandler

2018-08-27

The force that had pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield to 3% and the dollar above JPY113 at the start of the month, and the euro to $1.13 a couple of weeks ago has dissipated. The 10-year yield is near 2.80%. The dollar was near two-month lows against the yen a week ago, and the euro was back toward the middle of its previous $1.15-$1.18 trading range.

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Merkel, European Autonomy, and the ECB

2018-08-25

by Marc Chandler

2018-08-25

Merkel has again shown herself to be more wily than most. While pundits, investors, and politicians anticipated she would push hard for a German to replace Draghi as ECB President when his term ends next October. After all, it is German's turn at the helm, and its interests were ridden roughshod over by the extraordinary and prolonged monetary policy.

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FX Daily, August 24: Greenback Marks Time Ahead of Powell

2018-08-24

by Marc Chandler

2018-08-24

The US dollar is paring some of yesterday's gains in quiet turnover ahead of Fed Chief Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the week's last highlight. The euro and sterling are trading inside yesterday's ranges, which the dollar has extended its gains against the yen to reach a two-week high near JPY111.50.

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FX Daily, August 23: Dollar Rebounds

2018-08-23

by Marc Chandler

2018-08-23

After correcting lower since the middle of last week, and pushed faster if not further by President Trump's comments, the US dollar is rebounding against most of the major and emerging market currencies today. After an initial wobble on the back of the FOMC minutes, the greenback's recovery began in earnest.

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Three Things that may Disappoint Investors

2018-08-23

by Marc Chandler

2018-08-23

There are three areas that we suspect that many investors are vulnerable to disappointment. NAFTA, trade talks with China, and Powell speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. With problems elsewhere, the Trump Administration has been playing up the likelihood of an agreement as early as today with Mexico, which would be used, apparently to deliver a fait accompli to Canada.

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