Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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The US and German Relationship

2017-05-31

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2017-05-31

US and German relations may be strained, but this is not unprecedented. It has been fanned by Trump and Merkel's rhetoric. A European sphere of influence seems to have been the force pushing in that direction.

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FX Daily, May 31: Sterling Takes it On the Chin

2017-05-31

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2017-05-31

Projections showing that the UK Tories could lose their outright majority in Parliament in next week's election spurred sterling sales, which snapped a two-day advance.  Polls at the end of last week showed a sharp narrowing of the contest, and this saw sterling shed 1.3% last Thursday and Friday. 

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What Happened Monday

2017-05-31

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2017-05-31

No impact from the latest North Korean missile test. Polls suggest Tories still ahead for the June 8 election. Prospects of an Italian election this year weighed on Italian stocks and bonds.

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FX Daily, May 30: Mixed Dollar as Market Awaits Preliminary EMU CPI and US Jobs

2017-05-30

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2017-05-30

With the backdrop of US interest rates unable to get much traction, despite the strong probability of another Fed rate hike in a couple of weeks, the third since last November election, the US dollar mixed today. The chief story today, though, is not the greenback but the euro. The euro is trading heavily for the fourth session.

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Weekly Speculative Positions (as of May 23): Speculators Remain Bearish the Dollar and Bullish Bonds

2017-05-29

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2017-05-29

swiss franc may 29
The net short CHF position has fallen from 21.1 short to 19.8K contracts short (against USD). But the major movement was that speculators are net long the euro now and not the dollar any more. This implies that they are also long Euro against CHF. In the CFTC reporting week ending May 23 speculators in the futures market continued to largely position themselves for further dollar weakness.

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FX Weekly Preview: Twin Peaks: US Economy and EMU Inflation

2017-05-29

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2017-05-29

US economic data, culminating with the employment report, should be consistent with a re-acceleration of the world's largest economy after a typical slowdown in Q1. Eurozone price pressures likely eased considerably in May. For the UK economy, the bounce in April was a fluke, and gradual slowdown continues. Japanese investors have bought foreign bonds for three weeks in a row, which is the longest streak in six months.

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FX Weekly Review, May 22 – 27: Is the Dollar Going To Turn?

2017-05-29

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2017-05-29

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 27
The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-05-27

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2017-05-27

Moody's downgraded China's rating from Aa3 to A1 with stable outlook. Reports suggest that the PBOC has informed local banks that it is changing the way it sets the daily fix. Moody's downgraded Hong Kong’s rating to Aa2 from Aa1 with stable outlook. Philippine President Duterte declared martial law on Mindanao island. Egypt's central bank unexpectedly hiked rates by 200 bp. S&P moved the outlook on Bolivia’s BB rating from stable to negative....

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FX Daily, May 26: Anxiety Levels Rise Ahead of Weekend

2017-05-26

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2017-05-26

The markets are unsettled. It is not so much in the magnitude of moves as the breadth of the move. The nearly 1% rally in gold is a tell, but also the inability of equity market to follow the lead of the US markets, where the S&P 500 and NASDAQ set new records. US yields are softer, and the yen is the strongest of the major currencies, up 0.7% against the greenback.

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Great Graphic: OIl and the S&P 500

2017-05-26

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2017-05-26

S&P 500 Index, May 2017
The fluctuation of oil prices is often cited as an important factor driving equities. Our work shows that this is not always the case and that the correlation between the price of oil and the S&P 500 continues to ease.

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FX Daily, May 25: Euro Strength more than Dollar Weakness

2017-05-25

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2017-05-25

The Dollar Index is heavy, just above the lows set earlier this week set near 96.80. However, this exaggerates the dollar's weakness because the weight of the euro and currencies that shadow it, like the Swiss franc and Swedish krona. As the North American session is about to start, the dollar is higher against the dollar-bloc currencies and the Japanese yen.

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Economic Update: Marc Chandler-Does the World Have Too Much Capital?

2017-05-25

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Please Click Below to SUBSCRIBE for More “Special Report Radio” Videos https://goo.gl/nKkpGr Thanks for watching!!! *********************************************

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Marc Chandler-Does the World Have Too Much Capital?

2017-05-24

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Marc Chandler opposes conventional understanding of international economics by suggesting the challenge modern economies face is not scarcity, but surplus.

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Marc Chandler-Does the World Have Too Much Capital?

2017-05-24

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Marc Chandler opposes conventional understanding of international economics by suggesting the challenge modern economies face is not scarcity, but surplus.

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FX Daily, May 24: Dollar Consolidates, While Market Shrugs Off China Downgrade

2017-05-24

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2017-05-24

After staging a modest recovery in North America yesterday afternoon, the greenback is consolidating in narrow ranges. Momentum traders, who appeared to dominate activity recently, paused. To be sure, the greenbacks upticks have been modest, and little technical damage has been inflicting on the major foreign currencies.

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Four Numbers to Watch in FX

2017-05-24

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2017-05-24

The dollar's downside momentum faded today, but it has not shown that it has legs. Watch 96.45 in the DXY and $1.3055 in sterling. The US 2-year note yield is low, given expectations for overnight money. The US premium needs to widen.

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FX Daily, May 23: Greenback Remains Soft

2017-05-23

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2017-05-23

The US dollar cannot get out of its own way, it seems. With a light economic schedule, there is little to offset the continued drumbeat of troubling political developments. The latest turn, as reported first in the Washington Post, that President Trump asked heads of intelligence groups to also publicly deny collusion with Russia.

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FX Daily, May 22: Dollar Pushes Back

2017-05-22

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2017-05-22

After being shellacked last week, the US dollar is trading with a firmer bias against all the major currencies, but the euro and New Zealand dollar. To be sure, it is not that a new development has emerged to take investors' minds from intensifying political uncertainty in the US.

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Weekly Speculative Positions (as of May 16): Yen and Aussie Bears Push Forward, while Sterling Bears Continue to Run for Cover

2017-05-22

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2017-05-22

swiss franc may 22
The net short CHF position has risen from 15.2 short to 21.1K contracts short (against USD). But the major movement was that speculators are net long the euro now and not the dollar any more. This implies that they are also long Euro against CHF. In the Commitment of Traders reporting week ending May 16, speculators in the futures market made three significant adjustments in the currency futures.

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FX Weekly Preview: Nothing Like A Good US Drama

2017-05-22

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2017-05-22

US drama distracts from the difficult and ambitious economic program. European and Japanese developments have been constructive. Bank of Canada is the only G7 central bank that meets, and it is not expected to shift from its cautious stance.

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