Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Daily, October 12: Market Fever is Burning Itself Out Ahead of the Weekend

2018-10-12

by

2018-10-12

 Equity markets are stabilizing today as Asian and European markets shrug off the failure to get traction in the US yesterday.   As everything and nothing was behind the dramatic sell-off in recent days, the same could be said about today's recovery.  Most accounts seem to be emphasizing two developments:  a report indicating that despite the talk earlier in the week, there is a recognition by the US Treasury staff that China's actions do not reach...

Read More »

Why the old forex playbook doesn’t work

2018-10-12

by

Adam Button from ForexLive.com talks with BNNBloomberg. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

Read More »

FX Daily, October 11: Equity Swoon Takes Spotlight, Pushes Dollar to Backfoot

2018-10-11

by

2018-10-11

There is one story today, and that is the sell-off in global equities. Although the narratives put the US at the center, the fact of the matter is that US equities have been among the best performers this year, despite the rise of interest rates and a President that is not above criticizing the central bank.

Read More »

Macro Cheat Sheet

2018-10-11

by

2018-10-11

clouods
Rising US rates in absolute terms and relative to other countries, coupled with the policy-mix and US tax reform are the main drivers. The market has nearly completely discounted three more Fed hikes by the end of next year, while the Fed has signaled that four hikes may be appropriate.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 10: US Dollar Pullback may Continue in North America

2018-10-10

by

2018-10-10

The euro bottomed yesterday near $1.1430 and reached $1.1515 in Asia. Support is seen near $1.1480 and should hold if the euro's upside correction is to continue. There are options struck $1.1500-$1.1510 for nearly 1.4 bln euros that expire today. For the third consecutive session, the dollar found bids a little below JPY113.00. There is a $1 bln JPY113 option that will be cut today.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 09: A (Short) Reprieve For China while the Dollar Stays Firm

2018-10-09

by

2018-10-09

The small gains in China's Shanghai Composite and the yuan is helping sentiment today. News that Italy's budget watchdog may reject the government's fiscal plans has helped stabilize Italian assets initially, but renewed pressure quickly materialized. Most Asian equities retreated while Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is struggling to snap a three-day slide. US shares are trading heavily in Europe.

Read More »

Cool Video: Clip from CNBC Squawk Box

2018-10-09

by

2018-10-09

Marc Chandler
The combination of divergence and the US policy mix is underpinning the dollar and I was invited to share my views on CNBC's Squawk Box earlier today. It dovetailed nicely Matthew Diczok (from Merrill Lynch) views on Fed policy and US interest rates.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 08: China and European Woes Weigh on Equities but Buoy the Dollar

2018-10-08

by

2018-10-08

Overview:  The markets are having a rough adjustment to the return of the Chinese markets are the week-long holiday.  The cut in the required reserves failed to lift investor sentiment.  The Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites fell almost 4%, and the yuan slid nearly 0.8%.  It is an unusually large decline for the closely managed currency.  The offshore yuan fell by a little more than 0.5%. 

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Has an Inflection Point been Reached for Investors?

2018-10-08

by

2018-10-08

Interest rates, led by the US, have accelerated to the upside. With price pressures generally rising and oil prices at four-year highs, it is understandable. Market participants need to see the breakout that has lifted US 10-year yields to their highest level in seven years is confirmed in subsequent price action.

Read More »

Great Graphic: The Dollar’s Role

2018-10-06

by

2018-10-06

Currency's Share of the Category in the International Monetary System Q4 2017
This Great Graphic comes from Peter Coy and team's article in Business Week. It succinctly shows three metrics for the internationalization of domestic currencies: global payments, international bonds, and foreign exchange reserves. It does not strike me as surprising, and the role of the euro as a payments currency reflects its role in intra-European trade.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 05: US Jobs Data will Test Dollar Bulls and Bond Bears

2018-10-05

by

2018-10-05

The US dollar is firmer against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The yen and sterling are resisting the pressure, while the South African rand and Russian rouble are paring some of this week's declines. US equity losses yesterday weighed on Asian and European trading today.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 04: Dollar Consolidates Gains while Yields Continue to Rise

2018-10-04

by

2018-10-04

The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's gains against most of the major currencies, though the dollar bloc is underperforming. Bond yields are moving higher, and equities are lower. With a light data and events stream, the price action itself is the news.

Read More »

Lessons for traders courtesy of Amazon’s Jeff Bezos

2018-10-03

by

Jeff Bezos is the richest person in the world. Can his lessons for business, work for you in your trading? On September 19th, 2018, Jeff Bezos gave a somewhat rare interview at the Air Force Association Air and Space Conference. Although his comments were from his experience from running Amazon and his space company Blue …

Read More »

Cool Video: Bloomberg Clip from Discussion on Emerging Markets

2018-10-03

by

2018-10-03

In my first television appearance since joining Bannockburn Global Forex, I joined Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on the Bloomberg set. In this nearly 2.5 min clip, we talk about the Indonesia rupiah and the dollar's move above the IDR15000 level for the first time since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 02: Greenback Advances

2018-10-02

by

2018-10-02

The US dollar is rising against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are the exceptions and are holding their own. Global equities are mixed. Asia, excluding Japan, was mostly lower, with 1.2% losses in Taiwan and South Korea and 2.5% drop in Hong Kong and in the H-shares that trade there.

Read More »

A Word About the Q2 COFER Report

2018-10-02

by

2018-10-02

US Dollars in Billions, Q2 2017 - Q2 2018
The IMF reports the most authoritative currency allocation of global reserves at the end of every quarter with a quarter delay. Invariably, an economist, strategist, or journalist is inspired to write why some data nugget confirms the demise of the dollar as the dominant currency.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 01: NAFTA Deal Struck, Softer EMU Mfg PMI, and Firm Greenback Starts Week

2018-10-01

by

2018-10-01

The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are extending its pre-weekend gains on news that a new NAFTA deal (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement USMCA) has been struck. Against most of the other major and emerging market currencies, the US dollar is firm. China's mainland and Hong Kong markets are closed for a national holiday.

Read More »

Fed Delivers, Market Yawns

2018-09-29

by

2018-09-29

The Federal Reserve did what it was widely to do. The fed funds target range was lifted 25 bp to 2.00-2.25%. Three-quarters of Fed officials anticipate a hike in December. The market had discounted around an 80% chance. The Fed sticks with the three rate hikes in 2019 and one in 2020. The year-end rate in 2021 is the same as in 2020.

Read More »

Attention London FX and crypto traders

2018-09-29

by

Join me in London on Nov 14: http://bit.ly/forexlivelondon

Read More »

FX Daily, September 28: Dollar Remains Firm While Italy is Punished

2018-09-28

by

2018-09-28

The US dollar's post-Fed gains have been extended, though the upside momentum appears to be stalling. Japan's Nikkei advanced 1.35% on the back of the yen's declines and reached its highest level since 1991. Chinese shares (A and H) rallied amid reports that MSCI and FTSE-Russell are boosting Chinese shares in their benchmarks.

Read More »