Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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The market is search for a new theme. Here is where to watch

2020-01-17

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The themes of 2019 were 1) the US-China trade war 2) Brexit 3) Central bank easing. With the signing of the phase one deal and with central banks easing close to the finish line (the BOE, RBA and some EM central banks are still in play), the market suddenly finds itself without a theme. LET’S … Continue...

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FX Daily, January 17: China and the UK Surprise in Opposite Directions

2020-01-17

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2020-01-17

Overview:  Helped by new record highs in the US, global stocks are moving higher today. Nearly all the markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced and the seventh consecutive weekly rally is the longest in a couple of years. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is at new record highs and appears set to take a four-day streak into next week. US shares are trading firmly.

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FX Daily, January 16: Markets Look for New Cues with US-China Trade Pact Signed

2020-01-16

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2020-01-16

Overview: The global capital markets are calm today as investors await fresh trading incentives. New record highs in the US equity indices gave Asia Pacific stocks a lift, though China and Taiwan were notable exceptions. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm new record highs set last week.  US equities are edging higher in Europe. Benchmark bond yields are little changed.

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FX Daily, January 15: Phase 1 Trade Deal Shifts Terrain of US-China Rivalry

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

News that US tariffs on China will remain until through at least the November US election and continued US attempts to stymie China (e.g., more curbs on Huawei under consideration and stepped up efforts to force it to cut subsidies to business) have taken some momentum from the push into risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day advance today, with only Australian equities among the large regional markets able to sustain upticks. 

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Interview with Marc Chandler, chief market strategist

2020-01-14

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Kevin Mather speaks with Marc about the Global Outlook 2020 event on 27 January 2020 at the Mexican Consulate Sacramento

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FX Daily, January 13: Dismal Data Undercuts Sterling and Boosts Chances of a Rate Cut

2020-01-13

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2020-01-13

Overview: There are two big stories today. The first is the large scale protests in Iran after the government admits to accidentally shooting down the commercial airliner amid the fog of war. The market impact seems minimal but fueling speculation that this, coupled with the economic hardship related to the US embargo, could topple the regime. Second, the UK reported that the economy unexpectedly contracted in November.

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FX Weekly Preview: Back to Macro?

2020-01-13

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2020-01-13

The US-China trade conflict and then US-Iran confrontation distracted investors from the macroeconomic drivers of the capital markets. It is not that there is really much closure with the exogenous issues, but they are in a less challenging place, at least on the surface. 

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FX Daily, January 10: Jobs Friday: Asymmetrical Risks?

2020-01-10

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2020-01-10

Overview:  The first full week of 2020 is ending on a quiet note, pending the often volatile US jobs report.  New record highs US equities on the back of easing geopolitical anxiety is a reflection of greater risk appetite that is evident across the capital markets.  Asia Pacific equities mostly rose today, though Chinese shares and a few of the smaller markets saw small losses. 

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FX Daily, January 9: Animal Spirits Roar Back

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

Overview:  The S&P 500 recovered from a 10-day low to reach a new record high, which set the tone for the Asia Pacific and European markets today.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped by the most in a month with the Nikkei's 2% advance leading the way.  More broadly, the markets in Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, India, and Thailand all rose more than 1%.

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FX Daily, January 8: Hopes of De-Escalation Help Markets Stabilize

2020-01-08

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2020-01-08

The Iranian retaliatory missile strike on Iraqi-bases housing US forces initially sparked a dramatic risk-off response throughout the capital markets. The muted response by the US coupled with signals from Tehran that it had "concluded" its proportionate measures saw the markets retrace the initial reaction. It was too late for equities in the Asia Pacific region, and several markets (Japan, China, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand) fell more than 1%.

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FX Daily, January 7: Geopolitical Angst Eases, Helps Equities and Underpins the Greenback

2020-01-07

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2020-01-07

Overview: Without fresh escalation, investors cannot maintain a heightened sense of geopolitical anxiety.  The recovery of US shares yesterday set the tone for today's rebound in Asia and Europe. All the equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied today, led by a 1.6% rally in Japan and a nearly 1.4% advance in Australia, with the exception of Taiwan.

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Raffi Boyadjian — Rolex Cellini 50509 — View offers on Chrono24 | #RaffiBoyadjian

2020-01-07

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Raffi Boyadjian — Let’s start with the classic dinner party. Obviously, this isn’t the time or place for a massive pilot’s watch or a professional diving watch with a helium escape valve. A classy dinner party calls for a classic dress watch. Of course, you aren’t here to read the obvious. You’re probably wondering what model would best suit the occasion. Let’s get a bit more specific: In my opinion, a watch that embodies the term ‘dress watch’...

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Raffi Boyadjian | The Best Watches to Wear on New Year’s Eve | #RaffiBoyadjian

2020-01-07

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Raffi Boyadjian — The Best Watches to Wear on New Year’s Eve Raffi Boyadjian — One of the draws of mechanical timepieces is the memories of special moments, days, and events they carry with them. New Year’s Eve and ringing in the new year are two such moments. Raffi Boyadjian- People around the world celebrate the start of the new year in various ways: In Tokyo, the chiming of bells fills the night air. In Spain, everyone eats twelve grapes. In...

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FX Daily, January 6: Markets Struggling to Stabilize to Start the New Week

2020-01-06

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2020-01-06

Overview: The global capital markets have yet to stabilize amid heightened geopolitical tension. Even though the US stock market finished last week off its lows, the sell-off continued in the Asia Pacific region. Japan's markets re-opened after an extended holiday, and the yen, at three-month highs, saw the Nikkei sell-off nearly 2%. Several markets in the region lost over 1%, including Taiwan, India, Thailand, and Indonesia. Europe's Dow Jones...

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FX Weekly Preview: High-Frequency Data may Underscore Four Thematic Points

2020-01-06

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2020-01-06

Full liquidity returns to the markets gradually in the coming days, and the week ahead culminates with the US December employment report.  The highlights include the service and composite PMI readings,  and December eurozone and China's CPI.  The UK reports December PMIs,  November GDP, and industrial output figures.

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FX Daily, January 03: Geopolitics Saps Risk Appetite

2020-01-03

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2020-01-03

Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has threatened "severe retaliation" for the US attacked that killed an important head of a force within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. At the same time, reports indicate that North Korea's Kim Jong Un is no longer pledging to halt its nuclear weapons testing and has threatened to unveil a new weapon. Meanwhile, Turkish forces have reportedly entered Libya.

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Two charts to watch for the pulse on global growth

2020-01-03

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The global economy slowed in mid-2019 on the combination of higher interest rates and the trade war. Since then the Fed and others have lowered rates and now we have a ceasefire in the trade war. Some things like real estate have quickly turned around and stock markets are clearly pricing in more of the same, yet manufacturing is still soft. A few manufacturing surveys were out today and the theme was a continue flatline. A good spot to watch is...

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Two charts to watch for the pulse on global growth

2020-01-02

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The global economy slowed in mid-2019 on the combination of higher interest rates and the trade war. Since then the Fed and others have lowered rates and now we have a ceasefire in the trade war. Some things like real estate have quickly turned around and stock markets are clearly pricing in more of the … Continue...

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FX Daily, January 02: Equities Start New Year with a Pop

2020-01-02

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2020-01-02

Overview:  Equities have begun New Year like, well, last year, with most Asia Pacific markets advancing, led by more than 1% gains in China, Hong Kong, and Thailand.  Only South Korea and Indonesian markets fell.  In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up almost 1% in late morning turnover.  US shares are trading higher as well, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 0.6%.

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