Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

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FX Daily, May 11: Dollar Momentum Sapped, Near-Term Pullback Likely

2018-05-11

by Marc Chandler

2018-05-11

The US dollar pulled back following yesterday's slightly softer than expected CPI report and this likely marks the beginning of a new phase, with the dollar moving lower. Investors have learned over the past two weeks that neither wages nor consumer prices are accelerating. There is little reason in the recent string of data or official comments to suggest a more hawkish path for monetary policy (e.g., four rate hikes this year).

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Why oil doesn’t affect the Canadian dollar like it used to

2018-05-11

by Forexlive

Adam Button from ForexLive speaks to BNN about the dynamics in the oil market that have left the Canadian dollar at far lower levels than you would expect with $70 oil.

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FX Daily, May 10: Kiwi Tumbles on Dovish RBNZ, While Sterling Goes Nowhere Ahead of BOE

2018-05-10

by Marc Chandler

2018-05-10

The US dollar is consolidating in narrow trading against most of the major currencies as participants digest several developments ahead of what was expected to be the highlight today, the BOE meeting and US April CPI. The greenback's consolidation is giving it a heavier bias against most of the major currencies. The recently strong upside momentum has stalled, but the losses are modest and the euro and sterling are inside yesterday's ranges.

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FX Daily, May 09: Oil Prices Surge and Dollar Gains Extended Post Withdrawal Announcement

2018-05-09

by Marc Chandler

2018-05-09

The US dollar is broadly higher as the 10-year yield probes above 3.0%. Disappointing French industrial production and manufacturing data for March provided additional incentive, as if it were needed, to extend the euro's losses. The euro dipped below $1.1825. The single currency is off a cent this week after falling nearly two last week. A 38.2% retracement of the euro's gains since the beginning of last year is found a little above $1.1700 and...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 07/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold

2018-05-09

by Raffi Boyadjian

2018-05-09

The USDCHF pair’s recent trades are confined within mew minor bearish channel that we believe it forms bullish flag pattern, thus, the price needs to breach 1.0035 to activate the positive effect of this pattern followed by rallying towards our waited target at 1.0100. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend supported by the EMA50, unless we witnessed clear break and hold below 1.0000. Expected trading range for today is between...

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Talking the BOE, USD and Crypto with Mati Greenspan from eToro

2018-05-09

by Forexlive

Mati Greenspan, Senior Market Analyst at eToro joins Adam Button from ForexLive to talk about the Bank of England, the US dollar and cryptocurrencies. Explore bitcoin trading (including shorting!): https://goo.gl/47Lqw1

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FX Daily, May 08: Dollar Races Ahead

2018-05-08

by Marc Chandler

2018-05-08

The US dollar's surge continues. The Dollar Index is testing the space above 93.00. A month ago it was below 90. It does not appear to require fresh developments. The market continues to trade as if there are short dollar positions that are trapped at higher levels and the briefest and shallow pullbacks are new opportunities to adjust positions.

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FX Daily, May 07: Greenback Starts Week on Firm Note

2018-05-07

by Marc Chandler

2018-05-07

The US dollar recovered from a softer tone in early Asia and is higher against nearly all the major and emerging market currencies as North American market prepare to start the new week. The news stream is light and investors remain on edge geopolitical concerns remain elevated. Oil prices are extending gains, and WTI is above $70 a barrel for the first time since November 2014. Alongside an inverse yield curve, a jump in oil prices typically...

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FX Weekly Preview: Geopolitics Becomes More Salient as Monetary Policy Plays for Time

2018-05-07

by Marc Chandler

2018-05-07

Say what one will, US President Trump is vigorously projecting what he believes are American interests. There is virtually no sign of the isolationism that many observers had anticipated. Indeed, as we have argued, the America First rejection of the League of Nations that Trump harkens back to was not isolationist as much as unilateralist. And the same is true of the Trump Administration.

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Look Past Disappointing Jobs Data, Luke

2018-05-05

by Marc Chandler

2018-05-05

The US jobs report was broadly disappointing. However, the Federal Reserve will look through it and investors should too. A June hike is still by far the most likely scenario. The US created 164k net new jobs in April, and when coupled with the 32k upward revision in March, it was near expectations.

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FX Daily, May 04: US Jobs-Not the Driver it Once Was

2018-05-04

by Marc Chandler

2018-05-04

The US dollar fell last month in response to the disappointing non-farm payroll report. However, in general, the jobs report is not the market mover that it was in the past. With unemployment is at cyclical lows of 4.1% and poised to fall further. Weekly jobless claims and continuing claims at or near lows in a generation, though over qualification is more difficult than previously.

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FX Daily, May 03: Respite to Dollar Short Squeeze

2018-05-03

by Marc Chandler

2018-05-03

The Australian dollar is higher for a second session. It has been helped today by stronger than expected data in the form of a larger than expected March trade surplus (A$1.57 bln vs. expectations for A$865 mln) and building permits up more than twice as expected (2.6% vs. 1.0%). Today is the first session since April 19 that the Australian dollar has risen above the previous day's high. Initial resistance is seen near $0.7550 and then $0.7580.

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FX Daily, May 02: Confident Fed Key to New Found Respect for the Dollar

2018-05-02

by Marc Chandler

2018-05-02

There is a brief respite in the powerful short squeeze that has fueled the dollar's dramatic recovery. The greenback which was nearly friendless a month ago now has many suitors. It is higher on the year against all the major currencies but the yen (~2.6%), the Norwegian krone (~1.6%) and sterling ~0.9%). It is virtually flat against the euro.

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FX Daily, May 01: Little Help on May Day

2018-05-01

by Marc Chandler

2018-05-01

Most of the world's financial centers are closed for the May Day holiday, but the lack of participation has not prevented the extension of the US dollar's recovery. The Dollar Index has traded above its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year.

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FX Daily, April 30: Merger Monday

2018-04-30

by Marc Chandler

2018-04-30

Three large corporate deals were announced. T-Mobile appears to have finally figured a way to secure Sprint. It is a $26.5 bln equity tie-up. Marathon Petroleum is reportedly taking Andeavor for $20 bln in cash and stock. Sainsbury is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Walmart's Asda chain for GBP7.3 bln (~$10 bln) in an equity and cash transaction.

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FX Weekly Preview: Next Week in Context

2018-04-30

by Marc Chandler

2018-04-30

A year ago, the Dutch and French elections signaled that UK referendum to leave the EU and the US election of Trump did not usher in a populist-nationalist epoch, such as the one that proceeded the last great financial crisis. The euro gapped higher and did not look back.

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FX Daily, April 27: Dollar Puts Finishing Touches on Best Week Since November 2016

2018-04-27

by Marc Chandler

2018-04-27

The US dollar's recent gains have been extended, and it is having one of its best weeks since November 2016. The Dollar Index is up 1.7% for the week, as US session is about to start. Though it took this week's gains to change market's narrative, the fact of the matter, as we have pointed out is that April is the third consecutive month in which the Dollar Index fell in only one week. That translates into rising 10 of the past 13 weeks.

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The Fed isn’t only tightening for the US

2018-04-26

by Forexlive

Adam Button from ForexLive spoke to BNN about how Fed hikes could make the Bank of Canada slow down its rate hike path. It’s something other global central bankers will also be thinking about. Adam also discussed the outlook for the US dollar and CAD more broadly. Aired April 26 ,2018

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FX Daily, April 26: Euro Remains Soft Ahead of Draghi

2018-04-26

by Marc Chandler

2018-04-26

The euro made a marginal new low early in European turnover and held barely above the spike low on March 1 to $1.2155. So far, today is the first session since January 11 that the euro has not traded above $1.22. The euro stabilized as the European morning progressed, but there seems to be little real buying interest it ahead of Draghi's press conference following the ECB decision.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 23/04/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, WTI oil futures

2018-04-26

by Raffi Boyadjian

2018-04-26

The USDCHF pair touched the bullish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, and the price might be forced to show some temporary decline to test the support base formed above 0.9790 before resuming the rise again. In general, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend supported by the EMA50, depending on the organized trading inside the mentioned bullish channel, noting that our next target is located at 0.9900, while holding above...

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