Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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VIDEO: The EURUSD is higher but remains stuck in the mud.The USDJPY has bullish tendencies

2022-08-03

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The morning video looks at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD

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Market Takes China’s Response in Stride, Risk Appetites Recover

2022-08-03

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2022-08-03

Overview: The market is judging China's response to Speaker Pelosi's visit in a mild way and risk appetites returned. Equity markets are higher, even though Chinese shares weakened. Europe's Stoxx 600 is edging higher after two days of small loses, and US futures enjoy a firmer bias. The surge in US rates yesterday has calmed. The US 10-year yield is firm near 2.76% and the 2-year yield is up a couple of basis points near 3.07%. European yields are...

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VIDEO: The EURUSD made a break and failed. The USDJPY got closer to key support.Key levels in play.

2022-08-02

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A look at a number of currency pairs in this morning video including the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD and the AUDUSD. What levels are in play? Watch and find out.

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Aussie Hit with Profit-Taking after RBA Hikes 50 bp

2022-08-02

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2022-08-02

Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has added to the risk-off mood of the capital markets today. Most of the large Asia Pacific equities sold off, with Australia and India being notable exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for the second consecutive session, and by the most (~0.60%) since mid-July. US futures are also weaker. Benchmark 10-year rates are lower.

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ETHUSD technical analysis and how to manage a profitable short trade

2022-08-02

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A followup to the technical analysis on Ethereum and its short trade idea from 2 agao go, provided here: --nI Now that etheruem is at $1560, the trade is successful, but the stop loss of the ETHUSD short trade is too far. What should be done? Lower the entrance stop to prevent loss? Or abandon the trade? Or partial profit, and how much?

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Drilling down through the AUDUSD charts. What are they showing?

2022-08-01

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The AUDUSD has been rebounding since the low on July 14 and has moved up to test the 38.2% of the 2022 range on the daily chart.   The hourly chart has shown some up and down volatility of late but some bullish buying tendencies. The 5-minute correction today held the 50% but is stalling at a ceiling for the day.  What does the combined story - and drill down - tell us about the pair's bias and risk levels along with key targets ahead?

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Yen Squeeze Continues

2022-08-01

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2022-08-01

The US dollar begins the new month better offered. It is softer against all the major currencies. Short yen positions continue to get unwound, which is leading the move, followed  by the Antipodeans, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike rates tomorrow.

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VIDEO: A technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD to start the trading week

2022-08-01

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The EURUSD moved higher into the London morning session but backed off after reaching the top end of the recent up and down price action (once again). Still waiting for a break. The USDJPY moved to a new low and in the process inched closer to a key cluster of support on the daily chart. Sellers in control. The GBPUSD moved to a new high and left some short term support floors on the downside.

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USDJPY Technical Analysis

2022-08-01

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See the full technical analysis at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-with-video-explanation/

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Macro and Prices

2022-07-31

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2022-07-31

Next week, there are three big events:  the US jobs report, the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, and the Bank of England's meeting. That said, the final PMI readings may be more helpful this time than we often see because of how quickly it appears activity has stalled.

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August 2022 Monthly

2022-07-31

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2022-07-31

We can hope that August will be quiet. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan do not meet until September. With a snap Italian election on September 25, an Italian political storm may wait for vacationers to return.

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Ethereum technical analysis

2022-07-31

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Some say the most significant component of technical analysis is price movement. ETHUSD hasn't closed a daily candle around $1700 in 3 days. This indicates a lack of bullish momentum to drive Ethereum to a new price level. Technically, ETH is a bear flag. Bear flags continue downtrends. Bear flags have a strong downward move followed by an upward consolidation channel. ETHUSD looks to be in a channel, even without a bear channel, after touching...

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VIDEO: The USD moves higher after the higher core PCE inflation numbers today

2022-07-29

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The US core PCE data was a bit stronger than expected and that has pushed the USD higher in early NY trading after moves lower earlier in the day. The core PCE is a favored inflation figure used by the Fed.  The US stocks are mixed in pre-market trading.

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EMU GDP Surprises, while the Yen’s Short Squeeze Continues

2022-07-29

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2022-07-29

Overview: The month-end and slew of data is making for a volatile foreign exchange session, while the rash of earnings has generally been seen as favorable though weakness was seen among the semiconductor chip fabricators. China, Hong Kong, and Japanese equities fell but the other large markets in the region rose.

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GDP came out negative putting the US in a technical recession.How has it impacted the USD?

2022-07-28

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The USD GDP came in negative which put the US in a technical recession.  How has it impacted the currency markets.  In this video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and the USDCHF from a technical perspective and traders react to the data today and the FOMC decision yesterday.

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Attention Turns to US GDP, Ahead of Tomorrow’s EMU GDP and CPI

2022-07-28

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2022-07-28

Overview: The Federal Reserve delivered its second consecutive 75 bp rate hike, and Chair Powell left the door open for another large hike at the next meeting in September. Yet, the market took away a dovish message and the dollar suffered, rates slipped, and equities rallied.

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FOMC Day. What levels are in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

2022-07-27

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The FOMC decision will be announced at 2 PM ET with expectations for a 75 basis point hike (see Adam's preview HERE).. Rate decision days can be a long drawn out affair between the rate decision and the press conference that lasts an hour. That time and running headlines can cause additional market volatility. Traders have to decide if they want to take on that additional risk. Those that do, need to fully understand the bias defining levels...

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Fed Day

2022-07-27

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2022-07-27

Overview: Better US news from the likes of Google, Microsoft, and Texas Instruments has helped lift sentiment today and is encouraging a more risk-on mood ahead of the FOMC meeting. News that US President Biden and China’s Xi will talk tomorrow for the second time this year may be notable but does not appear to be impactful in the capital markets.

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Google stock analysis & trade idea after earnings

2022-07-27

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Yesterday, Google reported earnings. GOOG's 3% after-hours gain after the results report reinforces the view that its 32.5 percent drop from its all-time high (in January 2021) to its most recent low (in May 2022) may be adequate. This may mean good companies have changed enough and bad ones need to shrink. The video presents a technical analysis of the Google stock, with a weekly Anchored VWAP from the COVID collapse bottom. VWAP considers...

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FOMC preview: Watch for a subtle shift

2022-07-27

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Signs of an economic slowdown are here but what will move markets on the FOMC decision are signs of a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. The market can get laser-focused on the small difference between 75 basis points and 100 basis points but what ultimately matters is the terminal destination of rates. Don’t look for the Fed to say anything explicit, like that they see a peak in inflation. The Fed is missing its mandate on price stability badly...

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