Category Archive: 4) FX Trends
Major US indices higher and trading between 100/200 hour MA and awaits the next shove.
The last week, the major US stock indices have seen the price come off the short covering boil and return between the shorter term 100 and 200 hour MA. Today the prices are higher and that took the indices more toward the middle of those MA ranges.
Often ahead of a key event, traders will take the price toward these neutral areas as a way to keep both the bullish and bearish options open.
With Jackson Hole Symposium getting underway, the...
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The morning forex technical report for August 25: Start the Jackson Hole Symposium
What levels are in play as the Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off
The Jackson Hole symposium is kicking off officially today. That means central bankers will be speaking. The course Fed chair Powell will be the highlight tomorrow when he addresses the attendees at 10 AM ET.
So what levels are in play today?
- EURUSD trades back below the 100 hour MA after the "try" above failed. That MA is at a0.9977. Stay below is more bearish.
-...
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Dollar Longs Pared as Jackson Hole Gathering is set to Start
Overview: It seems that many market participants had
the same thing in mind, cut dollar longs before the Jackson Hole gathering. The
Antipodeans lead the majors move, encouraged perhaps by China’s new economic
measures, with around a 1% gain. The euro and sterling are up about 0.35% and
are the laggards. Emerging market currencies are higher as well, with the
notable exception of India and Turkey, which are nursing small losses. Equities
are having...
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Technical levels in the EURUSD control the price action
The EURUSD tested a higher low area of support, then shot through the swing low from July 2022. That led to buyers into the London fixing that pushed the pair to the 100 hour MA and parity level. Sellers leaned. The price came back down.
Technical levels are controlling the flows in choppy price action.
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August 24 technical report: The USD moves higher today as Jackson Hole approaches
What technical levels are in play for August 24, 2022
In the morning forex report, i outline the levels in play for the major currency pairs as the clock ticks toward the Jackson Hole Symposium and the Chair Powell speech on Friday at 10 AM.
The USD is higher on the day with some of the pairs breaking away from MA levels increasing the dollar bullish bias. The AUDUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY are all making a break.
The EURUSD is moving closer to the 20...
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New Recession Worry Stalls Dollar Express but Doesn’t Derail It
A simply dreadful flash US PMI stopped the dollar's four-day rally in its tracks. It followed news that the eurozone, Japan, and Australia's composite PMIs are below the 50 boom/bust level. However, the dollar recovered, even if not fully as the market seemed unconvinced that the data could change Fed Chair Powell's message at Jackson Hole on Friday. A consolidative tone is evident today. Asia Pacific equities were mixed.
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The morning forex technical report for August 23, 2022. What is driving the forex market
The EURUSD made another new low going back to December 2002, reaching to 0.9900. The price high stayed below the swing low from July 2022 at 0.99515 keeping the sellers in firm control. The 14 day RSI is diverging and moving toward oversold, but the price still needs to get and stay above 0.99515 if the pair is going higher.
The USDJPY move to a new high going back to July, and on the downside stalled just ahead of the June high near 137.00. ...
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Surging Energy Prices Pushing Europe Closer to Recession
The poor eurozone PMI underscores likely recession and weighs on the single currency, which was sold to a new 20-year low. Rather than a "Turn Around Tuesday" a broadly consolidative session is unfolding. Asian and European equities are weaker, while US futures are positive but little changed. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly firmer and the premium offered by Europe's periphery is edging higher. The US 10-year is little changed near...
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USDCAD trades to the highest level since July 15
The USDCAD on the daily chart has admittedly been sloppy. There are a lot of moves higher and moves lower on the daily chart going back to October 2021.
In the short term, however, the price of the USDCAD has been up 5 of the last 6 trading days. Price action is more trending, or is it?
The price is approaching topside swing levels between 1.3076 to 1.3092. That area will be eyed for the next clues for that pair. Move above is more bullish....
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The morning technical report: The EURUSD/GBPUSD drag along lows.The USDJPY is up & down.
- The trading week is off and running.
- The EURUSD is lower and trading above and below the key parity level. Sellers in control. What might give a short term positive bias in the face of difficult fundamentals
- GBPUSD is also suffering largely from the same fundamental down bias. The price got closer to the low for 2022 at 1.1759. Sellers are more in contol, but the price action is confined
- USDJPY is up for the 5th day, in an up and down...
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No Relief for the Euro or Sterling
Overview: The euro traded below parity for the second time this year and sterling extended last week’s 2.5% slide. While the dollar is higher against nearly all the emerging market currencies, it is more mixed against the majors.
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The weekend Forex report for the week starting August 22, 2022
In this weekend video, I review and preview the fundamental influences in the market and then look at the technicals in the market that are defining the bias, and risk with the focus on the major currencies vs the USD.
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Flash PMI, Jackson Hole, and the Price Action
For many, this will be the last week of the summer. However, in an unusual twist of the calendar, the US August employment report will be released on September 2, the end of the following week, rather than after the US Labor Day holiday (September 5).
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August 19, 2022: The morning technical report looks at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD
The USD is the strongest of the major currencies as Fed comments send the greenback higher. That has the EURUSD and GBPUSD moving to new week (and multi-week) lows. The USDJPY has also broken in favor of the USD as well.
What levels are in play with a focus on risk and targets from a technical perspective as trading heads toward the weekend.
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The Dollar is on Fire
The dollar is on fire. It is rising against all the major currencies and cutting through key technical levels like a hot knife in butter. The Canadian dollar is the strongest of the majors this week, which often outperforms on the crosses in a strong US dollar environment. It is off 1.5% this week.
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Bitcoin technical analysis
Bear flag still seems in play for BTCUSD, so we may be at the end of a bullish retracement within a down trend that is still in play. Bears are looking better than the bulls. Long term buyers seeking to enter or increase positions should wait for a daily candle to close above $26000.
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Fed Minutes were Not as Dovish as Initially Read
Overview: The sell-off in European bonds continues today. The 10-year German Bund yield is around four basis points higher to bring the three-day increase to about 22 bp. The Italian premium over Germany has risen by almost 18 bp over these three sessions.
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New lows in the GBPUSD as London traders look to exitForexLive Video
The GBPUSD is moving to a new session low and in the process is moving away from the 1.2000 level. In the morning video, I spoke to the swing area between 1.2002 to 1.2019 support and the resistance against the 100 hour MA.
The lower swing area was rebroken into the London close and exit and this time, sellers have pushed with more downside momentum.
What next?
Watch the video and learn.
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