Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Attention turns to US Jobs while the Yen’s Surge Continues

2022-12-02

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2022-12-02

Overview:  There have been significant moves in the capital markets this week and participants are turning cautious ahead of the US employment report. After the US equity market rally stalled yesterday, nearly all the Asia Pacific bourses fell today. The strength of the yen (~3.8% this week) has weighed on Japanese equities (Nikkei -1.8% this week) and spurred the BOJ to buy ETFs today for the first time in five months. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is...

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The morning forex technical report. The USD moves down w/ the EURUSD testing its 50% level

2022-12-01

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A look at some of major currency pairs near the start of the US session. In the morning forex technical report: - The EURUSD is trading higher and in the process moving away from its 200 day moving average and testing its 50% midpoint of the 2022 trading range at 1.05155. - The USDJPY move below a key target at the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the 2022 low at 137.24. Sellers push lower after the break. - The GBPUSD has moved above its...

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December 2022 Monthly

2022-12-01

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2022-12-01

As the year of aggressive monetary tightening winds down, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England will likely slow the pace of rate hikes. All three delivered 75 bp hikes in November and will probably hike by 50 bp this month and moderate the pace again in the first part of next year.Price pressures remain elevated even if near or slightly past the peaks. The G10 central banks are not finished tightening, though...

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What Did Powell Say?

2022-12-01

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2022-12-01

Overview:  Asia Pacific stocks rallied on the heels of the surge in US equities. China’s CSI 300 led the large bourses higher with a 1% advance. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is matching yesterday’s gain of a little more than 0.6%, while US futures are a touch softer. European yields are 9-13 bp lower, with the peripheral premiums shrinking.

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Nasdaq technical analysis in 30 seconds

2022-12-01

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For 01 December, 2022.

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UPST technical analysis showing early hints about the crash coming

2022-12-01

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When someone on TV or anywhere else, talks positively about a stock, then that person should know to answer what the company does. If you do not get an answer, that is a sign that we might have reached ridiculous times. Remember that for next time. It might be, and will probably be, a different type of 'ridiculous' but it will be ridiculous when the herd is greedy, and a sign for you to be fearful. Technical analysis is your friend in such...

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VIDEO: Soft landing? Happy days are here a again. A look at the markets post Fed Powell speech.

2022-11-30

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"Soft landing" may be still a hope, but the market likes those words. The Chair Powell speech/comments were laced with "slower pace", and "soft landing" which was comforting to the markets. So stocks moved higher and that gave dollar sellers the go-ahead to sell the green back, the lower USD, gave the bond traders the go-ahead to buy bonds and send yields lower, and all of that fed on itself.  Happy days are here...

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The morning forex technical report for November 30, 2022. Markets prepare for Fed Powell.

2022-11-30

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The major currency pairs are settling and waiting for the Fed Chair. The major currency pairs are seeing some mixed price action, but with the pairs like the EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY trading between their 100 and 200 hour MAs. That is indicative of a market that is awaiting the next shove. That shove may come from the Fed Powell's speech later today at 1:30 PM.  Will the Fed chair tilt to a more dovish bias or keep his relative hawkish bias from...

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Hope Springs Eternal in China

2022-11-30

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2022-11-30

Overview: Hope that the recent events in China are cathartic continues to lift risk appetites. Led by Hong Kong and mainland shares that trade there, the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rallied. Japan, where macro data continues to disappoint, was the notable exception. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day down draft and is up about 0.6% in late morning turnover. US futures are trading with a slightly firmer bias.

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A trade plan for natural gas futures

2022-11-30

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The example shows a real setup and possible trade plan, but more than that, it shows swing traders in general how to look and plan their entries (with a technical reasoning and trigger), and their stop loss as well as take profit targets, as they assess their 'risk reward ratio' (also mentioned as reward vs risk ratio, which is the more precise description of the ratio itself). And how a higher or lower ratio relates to the probability of them...

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EURUSD fails on the try higher today. Sellers look to take back more control.

2022-11-29

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What sellers need to do, to keep control in the short term for the EURUSD.

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FOREX QUICK: AUDUSD and NZDUSD retrace back below MA support

2022-11-29

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Sellers in the AUDUSD and NZDUSD have taken the pair back below MA support in the short term. Can the sellers maintain control after the failed break above resistance targets?

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China Steps away from the Abyss and Animal Spirits are Rekindled

2022-11-29

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2022-11-29

Overview: Chinese officials using the carrot and the stick have succeeded in dampening the protests and easing some anxiety and rekindled the animal spirits. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rallied 5.25% and its index of mainland shares surged 6.20%.

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Nasdaq technical analysis for 29 Nov

2022-11-29

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Today is looking good for the bulls. Watch the price levels where bulls can take partial profit, and where the bullish premise might change.

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China Shakes Markets, Euro Shakes it Off

2022-11-28

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2022-11-28

Overview: The surging Covid cases in China and the protests in several cities seemed to set the tone for today’s session. Equities are lower. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea were marked down the most. Of the large bourses, only India escaped unscathed. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off more than 0.8% and US futures are poised to gap lower. Bond markets are quieter. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off a little more than one basis point to around...

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Nasdaq technical analysis: Bears taking it to 11570 ?

2022-11-28

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I like to look for a 'story' that a chart tells me (in my opinion) and also follow charts in hindsight to learn where those stories developed, where there were hints on the way, etc. For example, if there was a failed breakout up, bulls are trapped, and will be disappointed, which hints on more down. Or if a key level was almost tested but market is still indecisive or weak, that it will probably be retested again. Markets love to poke around and...

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USD Outlook: Caught between Belief that it has Peaked and Oversold Momentum Indicators

2022-11-27

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2022-11-27

We think the US dollar has put in a significant high. However, the near-term technical readings are stretched. The dollar's bounce from November 15 to November 21 met or approached minimum retracement targets, but the momentum indicators did not correct. These conflicting impulses need to be navigated in the days ahead. On balance, we look for a firmer greenback, which we see as corrective. That is the prism through which we look at the price...

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The forex week ahead. A look a the risk and bias defining levels for the week starting November

2022-11-26

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The week ahead has as catalysts the US jobs report on Friday where the NFP is expected to add a less than trend 200K jobs. Before that the Fed Chair Powell will be speaking at the Brookings Institute on Wednesday. Two key events that are a prelude to the Fed decision later in the month. In the video, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive, also looks at the technicals that are driving the bias and risk levels for the major US currency pairs vs the US...

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US Jobs and Eurozone CPI Highlight the Week Ahead

2022-11-26

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2022-11-26

Two high-frequency economic reports stand out in the week ahead:  The US November employment report and the preliminary eurozone CPI. The Federal Reserve has deftly distanced itself from any one employment report. As a result, it would take a significant miss of the median forecast (Bloomberg survey) to alter market expectations for a 50 bp hike when the FOMC meeting concludes on December 14.Economists are looking for around a 200k increase in US...

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The USD is making new highs in early NY trading. What are the charts telling us?

2022-11-25

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A look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and the USDCHF to start the trading day. The USD is moving higher in early NY trading helped by rising yields. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF are trading to new extremes as a result. What next?  What key levels are in play and why?  Learn by watching the morning forex report.

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