Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Aussie Sells Off After RBA Hikes 50 bp while Sterling Bounces on UK New Initiative

2022-09-06

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2022-09-06

Overview: A GBP130 bln initiative by the new UK government to protect households from the surge in power costs helped lift sterling from 2.5-year lows. The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered the expected 50 bp rate hike, but the prospect of smaller moves going forward saw the Australian dollar sold through yesterday’s lows.

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What Happened Monday

2022-09-05

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2022-09-05

The US and Canada may have been on holiday on September 5, but the world waits for no one and there were several significant developments. First, Gazprom's decision to indefinitely suspend gas shipments through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline announced before the weekend saw the European natgas benchmark soar 23.7.

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Japanese Yen technical analysis USD vs Japanese Yen. Getting ready to short!

2022-09-05

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The U.S. is headed toward higher interest rates faster than Japan, which makes dollar-denominated assets more tempting. The Japanese yen has fallen against the dollar. Technical analysis shouldn't care. A technical analysis doesn't care about the news or why things are or should be. A 'pure' chartist knows we don't know everything. The chartist examines the price chart to find the next viable deal. She or he tries to determine whether the benefit...

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The weekend Forex Report for the week starting September 4,2022: The USD remains the king

2022-09-04

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The dollar continued to move higher last week. The US jobs report did show a modestly higher than expected NFP value, but there were other dampening details including more people entering the workforce which may take some pressure off wages.  US yields move higher out the curve as traders prepare for a tighter Fed for longer.   The US stocks fell for the 3rd week in a row led lower by the Nasdaq once again.  Russia continues to be a focus as...

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Nord Stream’s Indefinite Shutdown Keeps Dollar Bulls in Control

2022-09-04

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2022-09-04

Over the past month, the yen and sterling have been the weakest of the major currencies, off 5.00%-5.40%. The yen is at 24-year lows, while sterling swooned nearly eight cents in less than four weeks toward the March 2020 extreme (~$1.14). The yen's weakness is more clearly a function of the divergence of policy.   The correlation with US Treasuries has been too strong and too stable to dismiss easily. Back in July, when the dollar had approached...

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Russell analysis and recap of trading ideas

2022-09-04

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A review of the recent trade ideas: S&P 500 https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-technical-analysis-in-10-seconds-including-a-trade-idea-20220901/ Gold https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-in-10-seconds-20220831/ Ethereum https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/ehereum-technical-analysis-ethusd-at-1500-whats-next-20220828/ Natural gas...

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Do you have the FEAR OF SUCCESS when you trade?

2022-09-03

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Most traders know about the FEAR OF FAILURE, but do you know about the FEAR OF SUCCESS? In this video, Greg Michalowski describes the FEAR OF SUCCESS that stifles traders and causes them to do things they never planned on doing. What is it? How can you conquer it?

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RBA, BOC, and ECB Meetings and more in the Week Ahead

2022-09-03

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2022-09-03

All three major central banks that meet in the coming days will hike rates. The question is by how much. The Reserve Bank of Australia makes its announcement early Tuesday, September 6. One of the challenges for policymakers and investors is that Australia reports inflation quarterly. The Q2 estimate was released on July 27. It showed prices accelerating to 6.1% year-over-year from 5.1% in Q1. The trimmed mean rose to 4.9% from 3.7%, and the...

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S&P technical analysis for the start of Sept 2022. Bear or bull market?

2022-09-02

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See full technical analysis for ES S&P Emini futures at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-technical-analysis-in-10-seconds-including-a-trade-idea-20220901/

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What has been the reaction to the jobs report in the major currency pairs? Watch and learn

2022-09-02

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The USD moved up and down after the mixed jobs report. The expectations for a 75 basis point hike remains little changed, but the markets are a little relieved (at least not getting worse). THe US stocks are a little higher. The yields are a little lower.  The USD is a little lower.

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Can the US Employment Report be Anti-Climactic Ahead of Long North American Weekend?

2022-09-02

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2022-09-02

Overview:  Nothing is decisive, but the recent string of data pushes the needle a little more to a soft landing for the US economy and gave the US dollar another leg up. The risk is that some of the buying drained some of the interest that may materialize after today's US jobs report. The greenback is softer against the major currencies except the Japanese yen. The dollar is extending its rally against the yen for the sixth consecutive session and...

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September 2022 Monthly

2022-09-01

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2022-09-01

The highlights of September include continued substantial rate hikes by the major central banks, save Japan. The Tories will pick a new leader, who will become the next prime minister of the UK. Italy looks determined to have a right-wing government. Sweden goes to the polls in mid-September.

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The Morning Forex Technical report for September 1, 2022

2022-09-01

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The morning forex report will outline the key technicals for some of the major currencies vs the USD - EURUSD: The EURUSD is back down after testing its 38.2% retracement level yesterday and finding willing sellers. The today the price is knocking on the 200 hour moving average at 0.99829. A move below should increase the bearish bias. Key level to start the North American session - GBPUSD: The GBPUSD reached another new low going back to the...

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New Lockdown in China and the First Drop in South Korea’s Chip Exports in 2 years Euthanizes Animal Spirits

2022-09-01

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2022-09-01

Overview: The precipitous fall in equities continues while the dollar remains buoyant. Nvidia’s warnings about US curbs on sales to China and the first drop in South Korea’s chip exports in two years, coupled with the largest lockdown in China since Shanghai encouraged investors to move to the sidelines.

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How to control the FEAR OF FAILURE in your trading

2022-08-31

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Most traders are intuitively aware of the fear of failure, but knowing how to control it is a different thing. In this video, I give ways that you can ratchet down your fear of failure in your trading.

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The Morning Forex Technical report for August 31, 2022

2022-08-31

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The Morning Forex technical report is out. in the report I set the levels for the following pairs. Take a look: - EURUSD after dipping below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages is back above as traders consolidate the trading range and figure out where the next shove is going to be - USDJPY is also consolidating near highs and near the highs for 2022 (and going back to 1998). The ceiling has been able to hold resistance giving sellers some hope...

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EMU August CPI at 9.1%, while the Core Rate Jumps to 4.3%

2022-08-31

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2022-08-31

Overview: The rise in global interest rates continues. The US 10-year yield is a few basis points near 3.15% and European benchmarks are mostly 5-6 bp higher. Of note, the sharp sell-off in UK Gilts has being extended. Yesterday’s 10 bp rise has been followed by another 14 bp surge today. Italian bonds are also getting hit. The 10-year yield is up a little more than 10 bp.

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K.I.S.S. in your trading

2022-08-31

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It is is important to use the K.I.S.S. principle in your trading. For me the K.I.S.S. principle is Keep It Simple to be Successful, not stupid. I use three simple tools in total. The three have specific characteristics that allow me to use them on any chart, and gives me an unambiguous bias, that defines risk, defines trends and non trends, and are used by many because I want to trade with the crowd. If you find your trading decisions are...

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What are the technicals that are driving the Forex markets heading into the new trading day?

2022-08-30

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- The EURUSD is trading above its 100/200 hour moving averages which is bullish, but remains below its 38.2% retracement of the recent move lower - The GBPUSD traded to a new low going back to March 2020, but could not sustain the momentum and is trying to build off of a swing low from yesterday 1.1648 be aware. - The USDJPY move closer to the July high at 139.384 (high reached 139.07), but backed off a bit. - The USDCHF ran away from its 100 day...

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A quick look at the forex major currencies as the better data sends the dollar higher

2022-08-30

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Looking around the forex market the USD is moving back to the upside and declines from earlier today are being erased. The AUDUSD and NZDUSD have nearly completed an up and down lap. The EURUSD is back testing the 200 hour MA. The GBPUSD is testing the low from yesterday and also  the lowest level since the start of the pandemic.

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