Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Tesla price forecast: Watch for $163.20 gap fill

2022-11-16

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It's probably not time to be buying TSLA stock yet. This is a followup to this post asking if one should buy Tesla right after earnings, posted on ForexLive.com on Thursday, 20/10/2022 https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/tesla-technical-analysis-should-i-buy-20221020/ Trade Tesla stock at your own risk.

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VIDEO:The retail sales? Impressive. It keeps the Fed on target. What about the technicals?

2022-11-16

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A technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, and USDCAD. The retail sales data came in better than expectations this morning - inflation adjusted too - and that will keep the Fed playbook of continued hikes in the near term in motion. The Fed may slow the pace, but they will continue to fight inflation.  The EURUSD moved higher earlier today but has backed off after the data. The 200 day MA is key resistance on the topside that is helping to...

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Markets are Less on Edge as the Darkest Scenarios seem Less Likely

2022-11-16

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2022-11-16

The situation in central Europe is still intense but it appears top US, European and Polish officials are more reluctant than some market participants to attribute the darkest of intentions and paint extreme narratives.

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The USD moves lower after the better PPI data. Can the momentum continue?

2022-11-15

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The USD has moved lower after the weaker than expected PPI data. Stocks are higher with the Dow futures implying a gain of 375 points or so. The S&P is up about 75 points and the Nasdaq is up about 320 points. Yields are lower with the 10 year down -8.4 basis points at 3.782%.   In the forex, - The EURUSD moved above its 200 day MA at 1.0428, and ran to a high of 1.0480, but has moved back to retest the 200 day MA.  Key level today....

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Poor Chinese and Japanese Data Are Not Deterring Euphoria

2022-11-15

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2022-11-15

Overview: Recent developments have spurred a euphoria that is exciting the animal spirits. Greater confidence that US inflation has peaked, and new initiatives from China, and yesterday’s Biden-Xi meeting are all feeding this narrative. The dollar, which slumped last week, is sliding anew today. Strategically, we anticipated the turn, but tactically, we thought last week’s move had stretched the near-term technical condition.  The dollar is...

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Nasdaq futures technical analysis in 5 minutes

2022-11-15

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NQ analysis starting 15 November. Watch a level for bulls to strengthen their control, or for bears to regain it.

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The Dollar Posts Corrective Upticks, while the Market Digests China’s Initiatives

2022-11-14

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2022-11-14

Overview: China’s new initiatives to support the property sector helped lift the Hang Seng. And while the China’s CSI 300 edged higher both the Shanghai and Shenzhen composites fell. Most Asia Pacific markets fell, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 is posting a small gain.

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FTX lacked in their risk focus & the rest is history.That and a CPI miss led to a USD rout

2022-11-14

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The weekend forex technical report too. RISK Or lack thereof, led to the demise of the FTX currency exchange last week. That story led to sharply lower digital currencies, including a 92% decline in the FTX token FTT.   From an economic perspective, the US CPI proved to be the binary release that many thought it would be. The subsequent wave sent the USD sharply lower, the stocks soaring and yields lower in the US (the USD is driving the global...

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Dow Jones technical analysis till the end of 2022

2022-11-13

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Dow Jones futures is looking bullish till the end of year 2022, and probably heading to 35000. Visit ForexLive.com for additional technical analyses.

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Dollar Turn More Credible but Maybe Too Much Too Fast

2022-11-13

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2022-11-13

Even before the softer-than-expected US inflation, we had been suggesting the dollar was in the process of carving out a significant high. Our strongest conviction was that sterling bottomed in late September at a record low near $1.0350. Our conviction had also been growing that the greenback has topped against the Canadian dollar, a little shy of our CAD1.40 target.

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S&P futures technical analysis

2022-11-13

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FTX coin: Seeing the signs of weakness via weekly technical analysis

2022-11-13

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Look at technical signs hinting on the significant weakness of FTX coin, even before the sh*t hit the fan. Similar signs will return in the future. Visit ForexLive.com for additional perspectives.

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Has the US dollar topped?

2022-11-13

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Last week's US dollar decline was one of the largest ever. What's driving the move and how to know it will last.

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Capital Flows Outstrip Trade Flows and that is Where to Look for Drivers of FX

2022-11-12

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2022-11-12

Policymakers have often said that exchange rates should reflect fundamentals. What does that really mean? Can they do anything but that? It begs the question of which fundamental factors they should reflect.

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Caution Advised in Chasing FX, but Wow!

2022-11-11

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2022-11-11

Overview:  The softer than expected US inflation figures unleashed significant market adjustment that continue to ripple through the capital markets. The modification of some of China’s Covid stance may have also fanned some optimism, but we suggest that measures are modest tweaks, and the surge in infections will prevent the end of disruptive restrictions.

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Here we go. CPI ahead. What levels are in play?

2022-11-10

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A look at some of the key levels in play for the major currency pairs. The US CPI will be released at the bottom of the hour. Risk is increased so be careful.  Don't confuse gambling with trading.  However, if stronger than expectations or weaker we could see some good trend like moves. So know your levels that define the bias and your risk.   What levels are in play for the major currency pairs? I look at the  EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF and...

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High Anxiety: China’s Covid and US Inflation

2022-11-10

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2022-11-10

Overview: Anxiety is running high. Rather than ease its Covid restrictions, a surge in cases is seeing more areas in China come under restrictions. The US reports CPI and of the ten reports this year, seven of them have been stronger than expected.

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NZDUSD bounces near 100 hour MA/broken 38.2% retracement. What now?

2022-11-09

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The NZDUSD has bounced off a target support level after correcting lower from a key resistance level during trading yesterday. The buyers and sellers are lining up against the target support and resistance levels with the buyers trying to keep technical control.

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The USD moves higher after 3 days of declines. Technical levels did help reverse the bias.What next?

2022-11-09

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Greg Michalowski of Forexlive takes a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD to start your trading day in the US. The USD moved lower for 3 consecutive days (the US stocks moved higher as a result). That move is seeing some retracement today. Technical targets were reached in a number of currency pairs to help the reversal. The move back higher in the USD is taking back some bearish technical breaks. EURUSD: The EURUSD is moving...

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Markets Consolidate After US Election

2022-11-09

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2022-11-09

Overview: It is difficult to see the impact of the US midterm election in the immediate aftermath. The dollar is stronger against all the major currencies, but this seems to be mostly position adjusting ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report after a pullback in recent days.

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