Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Risk on sentiment in the EUR to start the day one day before the FOMC rate decision

2023-03-21

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Join us for this Forex market analysis update one day before the FOMC announcement. As banking fears are abating, the EUR is moving higher against the USD, while the GBP is moving lower. At the same time, the USDJPY is showing an upward trend as expectations focus on higher rates. But what do the charts say? In this session, we'll analyze the latest charts and discuss potential trading opportunities based on technical analysis. Whether you're a...

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Banking Stress Eases

2023-03-21

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2023-03-21

Overview: The banking crisis is ebbing. The Bank of England and European Central Bank assured investors that the AT1 bonds are senior to equity claims, and Switzerland is a unique case. Bank share indices in the Europe and the US rose yesterday, even though the shares of First Republic Bank fell by 47% yesterday. The $123-stock at the end of last month reached almost $11 yesterday. It is trading around $14.75 pre-market. Global equities are...

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Terms of UBS Acquisition Wipes out Additional Tier 1 Capital and Spurs Fresh Concerns

2023-03-20

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2023-03-20

Overview:  UBS takeover of Credit Suisse, the sale of Signature bank assets, and the daily dollar swaps could have helped stabilize the budding banking crisis. However, the wipeout of the additional tier 1 capital cushion (16 bln Swiss francs) at Credit Suisse has raised concern about the vulnerability of other such assets, which post-GFC is a $275 bln market in Europe. Asia Pacific equities was a sea of red, led by a 2.65% drop in the Hang Seng...

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What levels will be key as the market prepare for the FOMC rate decision

2023-03-20

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The trading week is underway. What technical levels are in play.

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The quiet Fed is ready to speak

2023-03-20

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While the expectations for the Fed was turned upside down, the Fed was in a quiet period, where not a word was said. On Wednesday, the Fed will be ready to speak when they announce their rate decision. Has the market gone too far, during the Feds silence? Much will depend on if the Fed will take the ECB approach and address financial fires and monetary policy with different tools.

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Fed interest rate decision with technical analysis and forecast

2023-03-19

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See more at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/fed-interest-rate-decision-with-technical-analysis-and-forecast/

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FOMC and BOE Meet As Investors are Not Persuaded that Efforts to Contain the Financial Crisis are Sufficient

2023-03-18

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2023-03-18

It was widely understood that the Federal Reserve would raise rates until one of three things took place: inflation was clearly on course to return to the target, the labor market would weaken precipitously, or systemic stress threatened. At the same time, the shocks we have had to cope with, Covid, supply chains, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine were commonly cited, and the. The re-pricing of assets as interest rates began normalizing may have...

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Fragile Calm to End the Volatile Week even with the Quadruple Expirations

2023-03-17

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2023-03-17

Overview: The support for First Republic Bank shown by a consortium of US banks by shifting $30 bln of deposits is helping break the financial anxiety that has gripped the market for more than a week. The liquidity provisions for Credit Suisse by the Swiss National Bank also are contributing to improved sentiment. The Fed's balance sheet expanded sharply last week as the bridge banks were extended credit to help the unwind of SVB and Signature...

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Swiss National Bank Support Steadies Market as ECB Faces Difficult Choice

2023-03-16

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2023-03-16

Overview: The pendulum of market psychology is swinging dramatically. Amid the US banking crisis, Credit Suisse's long-running pressures percolated back to top-of-mind, sending ripples through the capital markets, trigging a sharp slide in the euro. The SNB support is helping the markets calm today. The odds of a 50 bp hike by the ECB today have been cut to about 50% compared with a nearly 100% a week ago. The market has about a 66% chance of a 25...

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All the balls are in the air now. Yields move lower. Stocks lower. USD higher…mostly

2023-03-15

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All the risk balls are in the air now. Yields are lower. Stocks are lower. The US dollars is mostly higher.  In the morning Forex technical report, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCHF. The USD is moving the most versus the EUR which is plummeting and looking toward the 100 day moving average. The GBPUSD is down but the declines are more contained. The USD is lower vs the JPY as the USDJPY reacts to lower rates. The USDCHF is...

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Investor Anxiety Continues to Run High even If More Comfortable ECB 50 BP Tomorrow and 25 bp Next Week by the Fed

2023-03-15

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2023-03-15

Overview: The capital markets remain unsettled. Asia-Pacific bourses rose, but European markets are sharply lower, with the Stoxx 600 off 1.3%, giving back the lion's share of yesterday's gains and US equity futures are lower. Benchmark 10-year yields are off 3-9 bp in Europe, with widening core-periphery yields. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury is off a dozen basis points to about 3.56%. Two-year yields are also sharply lower, led by the 15-16...

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Yields are up, but they are down more

2023-03-14

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In the morning forex technical report, Greg Michalowski looks to make sense technically for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

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Does the US Inflation Report Matter or Has it Been Superseded by Deflationary Forces of a Financial Crisis?

2023-03-14

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2023-03-14

Overview: The dramatic shift in expectations for Fed policy is a potent shock, with reverberations throughout the capital markets.  The business press was full of accounts putting the nearly 50 bp decline in the US two-year note in an historical perspective. Yesterday, it fell by 61 bp as the market continued to unwind Fed hikes and reprice the chances of a cut as early as Q2. While the poorly received bill auctions suggests not significant deposit...

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What are some technical levels in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD?

2023-03-13

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As the markets continue to be driven by fundamental events, it's essential to understand the technical levels that can help guide trading decisions. In this weekly Forex technical analysis, I explore the key support and resistance levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, and discuss the potential biases for each currency pair.

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US Banking Crisis Swamps Other Considerations

2023-03-13

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2023-03-13

Overview:  The US banking crisis has overwhelmed other market drivers. The strong measures announced as Asia Pacific trading got under way was embraced by the market even though moral hazard issues and gaps in the Dodd-Frank regulatory framework were exposed. The dollar is trading heavily. The prospect of a 50 bp Fed hike next week has evaporated and some are doubting that a 25 bp increase will be delivered. Rate hike expectations for the ECB this...

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Dow Jones technical analysis: Targeting a contrarian long.

2023-03-12

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I'm letting others follow the news and seeking to target a contrarian Long on the Dow Jones futures, conditional to price action on a lower timeframe. I explain why and where in the video. Some technical analyses may have future updates in their comments sections. See https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/dow-jones-technical-analysis-at-forex-live-contrarian-long-opportunity-for-traders/ for this one. Visit ForexLive.com for additional...

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Market Prices in a Fed Cut in Q4 Ahead of CPI, While ECB to may Deliver a 50 bp Hawkish Hike

2023-03-11

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2023-03-11

Three macro events highlight the week ahead. The US February CPI will be reported on March 14. The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt will deliver the spring budget on March 15. The ECB meets the following day. A 50 bp hike is discounted not only for this meeting, but that is the bias for the May meeting as well. It seems that US interest rate adjustment that began early February (jobs data and strong gains in the service ISM) and helped fuel...

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The US jobs report is out, the USD is down. It more than jobs as banking concerns increase

2023-03-10

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In times of uncertainty, the charts help to guide the storylines. Find out the key levels in play now for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD

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Concerns Over US Banks Rival Today’s Jobs Report

2023-03-10

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2023-03-10

Overview: The unexpectedly large rise in US weekly jobless claims, the largest since the end of last September and concerns about the impact of the sharp rise in interest rates on the liquidity and value of assets (bonds) owned by small and medium-sized banks saw the market unwind the effect of Fed Chair Powell's comments. The yield on the US two-year note slumped almost 20 bp to 4.87% yesterday and fell to 4.75% today before stabilizing (~4.82%)....

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S&P 500 technical analysis for 10 March, 2023

2023-03-10

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CORECTION: There is a mistake in the March 3rd label on the video. This is an update for 10 March. In this video, we provide an update regarding the mistake in the label for our previous video. We then focus on the area of double support and its significance for swing and buy-and-hold traders. We outline the line in the sand for a bullish reversal and potential bearish trends and provide our thoughts on the current market conditions.

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