Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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The USD continues to chop as the market gets pushed and pulled

2023-04-20

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The USD continues to chop as the market gets pushed and pulled from higher inflation and lower growth, lower inflation and higher growth, good data, bad data, hawkish Fed members, less hawkish Fed members.  Good earnings but lower earnings YoY. Lower margins, etc., etc. etc.  The USD has moved lower after the Philly Fed index was the lowest in 3 years (the Empire manufacturing surprised the upside on Tuesday so go figure).  Yields are lower with...

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Equities Retreat while the Dollar is Confined to Narrow Ranges

2023-04-20

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2023-04-20

Overview: Equities are mostly lower, while bonds have risen. The dollar is trading in narrow ranges and mixed against the G10 currencies and emerging markets. Most Asian bourses were lower. The Nikkei (though not the Topix) and Hong Kong were the chief exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for the second consecutive day, in what looks like the first back-to-back loss since early this month. US equity futures are lower, with the NASDAQ, which eked...

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AUDUSD buyers and sellers start to look for a break. Here’s why?

2023-04-19

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The AUDUSD is consolidating with the lows and highs - along with technical levels - starting to converge. When that happens, it is time to anticipate a break and hopefully a run in the direction of the break.  In this video, I outline what I mean and what levels are key going forward.

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The USD is selling off in early US trading after rising into the session.

2023-04-19

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The ups and downs continue in the forex market. The USD was the strongest of the majors coming into the US session but is coming off and retracing some of those gains as US trading gets underway. What levels are in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD from a technical perspective.

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The Dollar Comes Back Bid

2023-04-19

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2023-04-19

Overview: It has taken some time, but the dollar has found better traction. It traded above JPY135 for the first time since mid-March and yesterday's setback has been mostly recouped against the other G10 currencies. Sterling is the most resilient after higher-than-expected inflation. Equities are lower. Japan's Nikkei snapped an eight-day advance and most of the other large bourses in the region (except Australia and South Korea) fell. Europe's...

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NZDUSD price action and tools applied define the key levels for traders

2023-04-18

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The NZDUSD is using technical levels to define the range. The borderlines are set.

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USDCHF trades between hourly MAs as buyers and sellers battle

2023-04-18

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The USDCHF moved above the 100 hour moving average but remains below the falling 200 hour moving average. Buyers and sellers are battling it out between the moving averages. Meanwhile, for the EURCHF, it has the 100 hour moving average in 200 day moving average converged at 0.9827. That will be a key barometer for traders today with the 200 hour moving average above at 0.98488 as a key target to get to and through.

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The USD is lowered to start the day but all low levels

2023-04-18

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The USD is lower on the day but off the low levels. What next for the greenback?

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Dollar Pares Gains but is Poised to Recover in North America

2023-04-18

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2023-04-18

Overview:  A rise in US yields, with the two-year Treasury closing yesterday at its best level in more than three weeks help fuel follow-through dollar buying yesterday after an upside reversal at the end of last week. Key levels were approached, like $1.09 in the euro, $1.2345 in sterling, and JPY135 held, and the dollar has consolidated in Asia and Europe. The euro and sterling recouped around half of the losses seen from the Friday's high to...

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S&P 500 technical analysis from 2009 todate: The big picture

2023-04-18

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Watch the giant channel from 2009 which shall be your guide, should you choose it. Invest and trade at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com for additional views. https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-500-technical-analysis-from-2009-todate-the-big-picture/

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Firm US Dollar as Market is Feeling More Comfortable with May Hike

2023-04-17

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2023-04-17

Overview: The dollar fell most of last week but reversed higher before the weekend. It has seen some follow-through gains, albeit limited against most of the G10 currencies today. Despite some seemingly dovish comments by a few Fed officials last week, the Fed funds futures is pricing in the greatest chance for a hike at the early May meeting since the banking stress erupted last month. The greenback is also trading with a firmer bias against most...

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Wheat Futures price forecast: Going to 700, and later to 800.

2023-04-16

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This technical analysis shows that on a lower (4 hour) time frame, ZW has broken out of an ascending wedge. The next probable target, in my opinion, is the 700 round number. However, investors or traders of wheat related assets may want to time their entries with a possible retest, while willing to pay a price that it might not do that and miss their entries. A balanced approach might be to scale into the trade. Trade at you own risk and visit...

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S&P 500 E-mini Futures Technical Analysis

2023-04-15

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Despite the surprising selloff, following a rally on Friday, this video shows the technical lines and junctions why the sell off occurred (trigered by trading algos usually). Watch this possible map for further guidance. There are always many maps and many participants watching more than one map, but this is one of the main ones that I am watching. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

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The Dollar Bounces but is it Sustainable? The Week Ahead

2023-04-15

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2023-04-15

Investors and businesses are wrestling with conflicting impulses. On the one hand, economic growth seems sufficiently strong to allow the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of England to continue to counter elevated price pressures. They are set to hike rates next month. On the other hand, last month's banking stress is seen translating to a lower and sooner peak in policy rates. Before the bank stress emerged, the market had...

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The USD moves higher and retraces some of the week’s declines

2023-04-14

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Fed's Waller spoke to inflation remaining too high with more hikes needed ("hikes" as in more than 1 more hike). That has given the USD a boost in early NY trading.  The 2 year is up 10 basis points. The 10 year is up 6 basis points. In this technical report, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and the USDCAD and outline the levels in play and show/explain why.

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Hawkish ECB Comments Boost Risk of a 50 bp Hike Next Month

2023-04-14

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2023-04-14

Overview: The 0.5% decline in US March producer prices pushed on the door opened by the softer-than-expected CPI on Wednesday. The Fed funds futures market sees the year end rate to a 4.33%, while still pricing in a nearly 70% chance of a hike on May 3 to 5.25%. The dollar tumbled to new lows for the year against the euro, sterling, and Swiss franc. The Dollar Index made a new low for the year today, a few hundredths of an index point below the low...

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BREAKOUT. The PPI and claims data send the USD lower.What next?

2023-04-13

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BREAKOUT! The USD is breaking to new lows vs the EUR and GBP for the year, and the USDCAD is breaking below its 200 day MA for the first time since August 2022. For the USDJPY, it is making a break below its 200 hour MA.  So lots of breaks technically for the major currency pairs. Learn about it, and what's next in the morning forex technical report.  - EURUSD 2:18 - USDJPY 4:42 - GBPUSD 5:56 - USDCAD 7:12

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US Dollar Slumps and China Surprises with Twice the Expected Trade Surplus

2023-04-13

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2023-04-13

Overview:  The market took US short-term rates and the dollar lower after the CPI data, which was largely in line with expectations. On the one hand, the odds of a quarter-point hike next month increased slightly (73.6% vs. 71.6%) to 5.25%, but it reinforced that sense that it is last hike and that the Fed will unwind this hike and more before the end of the year. The year-end implied policy rate fell by about six basis points to 4.33%. The dollar...

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US CPI sends the USD lower. What next for some of the major currency pairs

2023-04-12

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The USD moved lower after the US CPI data. The CPI showed a headline increase of 0.1% for the headline and 0.4% for the core. The Shelter costs continue to elevate the core measure (accounts for 1/3 of CPI data). It increased by 0.6%. Traders and analysts continue to look for lower shelter costs to start to kick in.   Nevertheless, the numbers has lowered yields and pushed up stock prices. The USD has moved lower.  In this video, I take a...

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US CPI is Unlikely to Tell Us Anything We Don’t Already Know

2023-04-12

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2023-04-12

Overview:  Today's highlight is the March US CPI, and while everyone is talking about it, it is unlikely to tell us anything we do not already know. Headline price pressures are easing but the core rate is sticky, and despite comments from the Chicago Fed president about the need for patience, the odds of a hike next month have crept up. Understanding the Fed's reaction function, it seems clear that for most officials, inflation is remains too high...

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