Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Is a Failed Bearish Technical Signal Bullish?

2022-10-16

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2022-10-16

By nearly any measure one chooses, the dollar is historically rich. When it does turn, it would likely be dramatic. That is what happened after the stronger-than-expected US CPI figures. However, the lack of follow-through is what one would expect if the greenback's bull move was intact.  Still, we expect the dollar's super-cycle is entering a new phase. 

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Bias. Risk. Targets. Why. Intrigued? The weekend forex trading video.

2022-10-15

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In the weekend forex report a breakopen how you should be looking at your trades and then outline the key techicals that are driving the major currency pairs. What is the bias? What is the risk? What are the targets? All of those help determine the "why" for your trades including getting in and getting out.   The first part of the video is a traders lesson. The second part of the video starting at 9:37, goes through the major...

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Week Ahead: Focus Shifts away from the US after Robust Jobs Data and Stronger than Expected Inflation

2022-10-15

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2022-10-15

The latest US employment and inflation figures are passed. The market is confident of a 75 bp rate hike next month. While a 50 bp in December is still the odds-on favorite, the market has a slight chance (~15%) of a 100 bp move instead after the robust jobs report and stronger-than-expected September CPI.

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The morning FX technical report sets the parameters, the biases,the risks for your trading

2022-10-14

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Get ahead of the the game. Have your plan ready. The morning FX technical report sets the parameters, the biases, the risks for your trading TODAY.  Spend some time.  Take a look, and understand what levels are in play for your trading today and why.  Fast forward to your favorite currency pair: - EURUSD (0.48) - USDJPY (3:14) - GBPUSD (4:40) - USDCHF (6:52) - USDCAD (8:33)

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Dollar Recovers from Yesterday’s Stunning Reversal, but has Sentiment Turned in North America?

2022-10-14

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2022-10-14

There has been little follow-through dollar selling so far today after yesterday’s dramatic downside reversal after the initial flurry of buying in response to the stronger than expected US CPI.

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Why the markets made an incredible reversal today from a technical perspective

2022-10-13

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Adam clearly pointed out reasons for the incredible reversal today more from a fundamental perspective. Sentiment is horrible from Mom and Pop and from institutions too.  The UK is not imploding is another storyline that gave some support. You can read the post here. When looking at the price action and apply tools to it, that too told a story that said "the market is not doing what we all thought it should do".  In technical terms, the...

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The commodity currencies all moved to new lows vs the USD, but have seen rebounds. What next?

2022-10-13

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The commodity currency pairs - the USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD - all raced to new lows vs the stronger USD after the hotter than expected CPI data. However, there has been a bounce that now threatens that move in the short term at least.  IN this video, I look at the price action and show what would ruin the USD buying party vs these commodity pairs today and explain why.

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The USD has moved higher after the US CPI data came in hotter than expectations

2022-10-13

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What did the price action do to the technicals for the major currencies? One thing is it sent the dollar higher. The USD has moved sharply higher after the higher than expected CPI data. The expectations for the Fed increase by 25 basis points. The market is now targeting a terminal rate between 4.75% at 5.0%. US yields are higher with the 2 year up at 4.48%. The 10 year yield is back above the 4% level. For the US dollar, the greenback has moved...

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Can We Look Past US CPI ?

2022-10-13

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2022-10-13

Overview: There seems to be a nervous calm today ahead of the US CPI. The dollar is hovering near JPY147 but the risk of BOJ intervention in the North American session seems slim. The BOE’s emergency Gilt buying operation ends tomorrow and UK bonds yields have tumbled. While equities in the Asia Pacific region lost ground, Europe’s Stoxx 600 is trying to snap a six-day decline.

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Do you have your CPI trading playbook ready for tomorrow’s big release?

2022-10-12

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In this video, I outline the bias, risk and targets through the key US CPI data tomorrow. The US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Adam has put up a post outlining the expectations for that pivotal release. You can find it HERE. In addition to know the expectations, it is important for traders to understand the bias, the potential bias shifts (i.e. from bullish to bearish or bearish to bullish), the risks and the targets that you might...

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The morning forex technical report outlines the levels in play for some of the major pairs

2022-10-12

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The EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCHF are outlined in the morning report today. The USD is mixed with declines into resistance for the GBP, and gains vs the JPY into new 2022 high territory for the USDJPY. The EURUSD is trading in a narrow range with the 100 hour MA above near 0.9740 as resistance and a swing area below with 0.9662 as a key support level below. The USDCHF is coiling with close support at the 100 hour MA at 0.9947 as support,...

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The Tragedy of the Commons

2022-10-12

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2022-10-12

Overview: The dramatic moves spurred by the BOE maintaining the end of the week deadline for its Gilt purchases, which have been quite modest given its wherewithal, have calmed. Sterling is firmer on the day, though long-end Gilt yields are higher. The dollar has pushed above JPY145.90, where the BOJ intervened last month.

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SNB’s Jordan: Central Bank Independence is crucial to fight inflation effectively

2022-10-12

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2022-10-12

SNB Jordan is on the wires speaks in general terms: Central bank independence is crucial to fight inflation effectively.

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A number of major indices are testing key MA resistance/support level

2022-10-11

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Dollar selling pushes pairs toward key 100/200 hour MAs. There are a number of key currency pairs vs the US testing their 100/200 hour MAs as dollar selling pushes prices back toward those levels.    If the price can continue through the MAs, the bias would shift in the short/medium term. Conversely, if the MAs can not be broken, the dollar remains the dominant bias for each of the pairs. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD and NZDUSD have all...

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NZDUSD tests topside swing area and 100 hour MA as buyers make a play.

2022-10-11

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Swing area between 0.56204 to 0.56274. 100 hour MA at 0.5641. The NZDUSD is making a run to the upside today after three days of declines for the pair. The price at the lows today stalled at an old trend line and bounced, the pair is now testing a swing area and the falling 100 hour MA. A break above each followed by the 200 hour MA would tilt the bias in the pair more to the upside at least in the short term.  Stay below and the sellers...

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The USD is seeing some downside. Looking to break 4 day of gains.

2022-10-11

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The USD is seeing a modest move to the downside. There is some reactionary moves off of high USD levels in some of major currencies. EURUSD: For the EURUSD the pair found support buyers against a swing area low going back to 2002 between 0.9662. The low got within 6-7 pips of that level USDJPY: The USDJPY got within 6-7 pips of the BOJ intervention high at 145.90 reachedon September 22 and moved to the downside GBPUSD: The GBPUSD reached a...

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Bank of England Steps in to Buy Inflation-Linked Bonds for the First Time

2022-10-11

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2022-10-11

Overview:  The dollar continues to ride high. It reached its highest level against the yen since the recent intervention. The Canadian dollar has fallen to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years and the New Zealand dollar is approaching the 2020 extreme.

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USDCAD moves higher and away from 200 hour MA. What next?

2022-10-10

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The USDCAD moved above the 200 hour MA last Friday and after a test, bounced against the MA level. That MA is now close support. Stay above is more bullish.  The highs from September and early October loom above between 1.3807 to 1.3836. Above that and the 1.38548 will be the next target before moving into the 2020 extreme levels.

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AUDUSD trades to news lows for the year/low going back to April 2020. What now?

2022-10-10

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The AUDUSD fell to the lowest level since April 2020 today and outside an up and down swing area that had confined the pair over the last two or so weeks of trading.   What now? Sellers are in control. The pair is in a channel on the hourly chart that if broken to the upside might give some dip buyers more hope. However, it will still take a move above the 0.6363 low from September 28 and the 38.2% of the move down from the last high last week at...

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A technical look of the major US currency pairs for October 10, 2022

2022-10-10

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The day after the better than expected US jobs report is seeing a modestly higher USD. - The EURUSD and GBPUSD are lower but consolidating near low levels. - The USDJPY remains above the 145.00 level as they brave potential intervention, but it is hard to fight the fundamentals in that pair. - The USDCHF is higher and trading above its September highs as it now looks toward the 2022 highs.  - Finally, the USDCAD is consolidating with a short...

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