Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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FX Daily, February 06: Dollar Gains by Default

2019-02-06

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2019-02-06

Overview: The rally in equities is threatening to pause today, even though the few markets open in Asia edged higher.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600, which has advanced in eight of the past ten sessions and six in a row, is seeing some profit-taking pressures.  US shares are also trading heavier in Europe.  The S&P 500 has a five-day rally in tow but looks poised for some backing and filling action. 

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FX Daily, February 05: Greenback Remains Firm

2019-02-05

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2019-02-05

Overview: The US dollar is little firmer against most of the major currencies.  Despite some disappointing data (retail sales, trade, PMI), the Australian dollar has recovered from initial losses below $0.7200 on the back of the central bank's reluctance to adopt an easing bias.  A small upward revision in the eurozone's flash service and composite PMIs help steady the euro after it neared $1.14.

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FX Daily, February 04: Subdued Start to Quiet Week

2019-02-04

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2019-02-04

Overview: The Lunar New Year celebration made for a quiet Asian session while a light diary in Europe saw subdued turnover. Equity markets are narrowly mixed. Among the three large markets open in Asia Pacific, Australia and Japanese equities rose while India slipped. European bourses are little changed, putting the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 four-day advance at risk.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead is Mostly About Digestion

2019-02-04

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2019-02-04

The information set investors have is unlikely to substantively change in the coming days.  The important macro points are known.  The first part of February may be about digesting and making sense of that information rather than an incremental increase. 

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Short Note on Jobs Report

2019-02-03

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2019-02-03

The January employment report was mixed.  It is unlikely to have a material impact on expectations for Fed policy.  However, it does suggest the downside risks may not materialize. The US economy grew 304k jobs, well above expectation.  It is marred by a 70k net downward revision of the past two months, and notably a 90k cut in December's estimate, which brings it to 222k (from 312k). 

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Two Brinkmanship Games and a Possible Third

2019-02-02

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2019-02-02

Some historians give Adlai Stevenson credit for inventing the word "brinkmanship" as part of his criticism of US foreign policy under Dulles, who said that "if you are scared of going to the brink, you lost." But surely we can agree that the tactic is as old as civilization. The idea is you take the issue to the very edge, risking a significant confrontation, to force a deal, is the way it may seem.

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FX Daily, February 01: Did the Fed Steal the Jobs Data Thunder?

2019-02-01

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2019-02-01

Overview:  Weak manufacturing PMI readings are curbing risk appetites ahead of the US jobs report.  Growth concerns are top and center after dovish Fed and the Bundesbank's Weidmann warning that Germany may undershoot 1.5% growth this year, though the ink is barely dry on the central bank's forecast for 1.6% growth this year and next.

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FX Daily, January 31: Did Powell Toss in the Towel or was it a Tactical Retreat?

2019-01-31

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2019-01-31

Overview: The Fed's dovish tone and earnings news are the main drivers of the capital markets today, helping lift stocks, bonds, and currencies.  Large equity markets in Asia, including Japan, Hong Kong, China's CSI 300, India, and Indonesia, all rose more than 1%, putting the MSCI Asia Pacific Index in a good position to extend its rally for a fourth consecutive week. 

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FX Daily, January 30: She Can’t Accept No

2019-01-30

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2019-01-30

Overview: The UK Prime Minister has two weeks to strike a new deal with the EC over the Irish backstop or return to Parliament in mid-February to consider alternatives, six weeks before Brexit. Sterling has recovered about half of yesterday's drop. The Australian dollar jump back to $0.7200 was aided by the nearly 10% jump in iron ore price after Vale announced a sharp reduction in output.

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FX Daily, January 29: Fragile Tone Persists

2019-01-29

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2019-01-29

The positive impulse in the capital markets seen last week has faded. The gap higher opening ahead of the weekend by the S&P 500 was follow by a gap lower opening yesterday. The US threatened crackdown on Huawei disrupted equities in that sector, with as many as two dozen companies on the Shenzhen exchange that were limit down (10%).

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Cool Video: Bloomberg Clip US Growth in Relative Terms

2019-01-29

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2019-01-29

Marc Chandler
With a jam-packed week for investors, and several high profile earnings reports, first look at Q4 GDP, the resumption of US-China trade talks, the FOMC meeting, and US jobs, it was a good time to be invited on the set of Bloomberg TV, with David Westin and Lisa Abramowicz. The clip here is with Matt Winkler, Editor-in-Chief Emeritus.

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FX Daily, January 28: Getting Ducks Lined Up for Later in the Week

2019-01-28

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2019-01-28

Overview: The global capital markets are consolidating ahead of this week's big events, which include the FOMC meeting, US jobs, an important Brexit vote in the UK parliament and the first look at Q4 EMU and US GDP. The US dollar is narrowly mixed. Equities are mostly lower. European benchmark 10-year yields have edged up, though the US 10-year yield is struggling to hold above 2.75%.

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FX Weekly Preview: Divergence Reinvigorated

2019-01-28

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2019-01-28

Last week the focus was on Europe. Prospects of a delay in Brexit helped extend sterling's gains to 11-week highs. Disappointing flash PMI for the eurozone and a dovish Draghi pushed the euro below $1.13 for the first time since mid-December.

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FX Daily, January 25: Euro Pares Yesterday’s Losses and Sterling Pulls Back after topping $1.31

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

Overview:  The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains against most of the major and emerging market currencies. Sterling pushed above $1.31, an 11-week high on news that the DUP would support Prime Minister's Plan B that calls for limits on the backstop with Ireland, something that the EC and Ireland have indicated are not on the table.

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Summary of Fox Biz Talk

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

I had a brief talk on the set with of Fox Business with Varney & Co today, but there is no video available. We began by talking about stocks. For several weeks, I have been suggesting to viewers that the S&P 500 could recover to 2700. Last Friday, the S&P 500 gapped higher and reached 2675. I did not like the gap and thought it would be quickly filled.

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FX Daily, January 24: Poor EMU PMI Compounds ECB’s Challenge

2019-01-24

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2019-01-24

Overview:  The eurozone's preliminary composite PMI for January fell to its lowest level since July 2013.  It reinforces expectations for a dovish Draghi press conference and saw the euro unwind yesterday's gains.  The US dollar is firmer against all the major currencies. 

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FX Daily, January 23: Markets Walk Tightrope after Yesterday’s US Equity Drop

2019-01-23

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2019-01-23

Overview:  Global equities have fared better than the 1.4% slide in the S&P 500 yesterday may have implied. Asian markets were mixed, with China, Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand advancing. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 from Europe is a little changed after falling for the past two sessions. 

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ECB Preview: Worries Increase but Not Quite Ready to Act

2019-01-23

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2019-01-23

Draghi Conductor
The ECB meets Thursday, and it may be best conceived as a transition meeting. It will lay the rhetorical groundwork for two things: a likely downgrade to the staff's growth forecasts and moving toward a new round of long-term loans (targeted long-term refinance operations).

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FX Daily, January 22: Dollar Consolidates and Equity Rally Stalls

2019-01-22

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2019-01-22

The US dollar is firmer against most major and emerging market currencies. The yen is a notable exception, and it is firmer, but well within recent ranges. The dollar-bloc currencies and the Norwegian krona are the weakest of the majors as a setback in equities and oil reflects a diminished risk appetite.

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FX Daily, January 21: Chinese Data and UK Brexit Start New Week

2019-01-21

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2019-01-21

Overview: Mixed data from China and the anticipation of Prime Minister May's "Plan B" are the main talking points, while US stock and bond markets are closed today.  Asia Pacific equities were higher, while European markets have failed to follow suit.  Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly softer, with the on-the-run Japanese Government Bond yield dipping back into negative territory.

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