Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Interview with Marc Chandler, chief market strategist

2020-01-14

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Kevin Mather speaks with Marc about the Global Outlook 2020 event on 27 January 2020 at the Mexican Consulate Sacramento

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FX Daily, January 13: Dismal Data Undercuts Sterling and Boosts Chances of a Rate Cut

2020-01-13

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2020-01-13

Overview: There are two big stories today. The first is the large scale protests in Iran after the government admits to accidentally shooting down the commercial airliner amid the fog of war. The market impact seems minimal but fueling speculation that this, coupled with the economic hardship related to the US embargo, could topple the regime. Second, the UK reported that the economy unexpectedly contracted in November.

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FX Weekly Preview: Back to Macro?

2020-01-13

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2020-01-13

The US-China trade conflict and then US-Iran confrontation distracted investors from the macroeconomic drivers of the capital markets. It is not that there is really much closure with the exogenous issues, but they are in a less challenging place, at least on the surface. 

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FX Daily, January 10: Jobs Friday: Asymmetrical Risks?

2020-01-10

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2020-01-10

Overview:  The first full week of 2020 is ending on a quiet note, pending the often volatile US jobs report.  New record highs US equities on the back of easing geopolitical anxiety is a reflection of greater risk appetite that is evident across the capital markets.  Asia Pacific equities mostly rose today, though Chinese shares and a few of the smaller markets saw small losses. 

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FX Daily, January 9: Animal Spirits Roar Back

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

Overview:  The S&P 500 recovered from a 10-day low to reach a new record high, which set the tone for the Asia Pacific and European markets today.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped by the most in a month with the Nikkei's 2% advance leading the way.  More broadly, the markets in Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, India, and Thailand all rose more than 1%.

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FX Daily, January 8: Hopes of De-Escalation Help Markets Stabilize

2020-01-08

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2020-01-08

The Iranian retaliatory missile strike on Iraqi-bases housing US forces initially sparked a dramatic risk-off response throughout the capital markets. The muted response by the US coupled with signals from Tehran that it had "concluded" its proportionate measures saw the markets retrace the initial reaction. It was too late for equities in the Asia Pacific region, and several markets (Japan, China, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand) fell more than 1%.

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FX Daily, January 7: Geopolitical Angst Eases, Helps Equities and Underpins the Greenback

2020-01-07

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2020-01-07

Overview: Without fresh escalation, investors cannot maintain a heightened sense of geopolitical anxiety.  The recovery of US shares yesterday set the tone for today's rebound in Asia and Europe. All the equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied today, led by a 1.6% rally in Japan and a nearly 1.4% advance in Australia, with the exception of Taiwan.

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FX Daily, January 6: Markets Struggling to Stabilize to Start the New Week

2020-01-06

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2020-01-06

Overview: The global capital markets have yet to stabilize amid heightened geopolitical tension. Even though the US stock market finished last week off its lows, the sell-off continued in the Asia Pacific region. Japan's markets re-opened after an extended holiday, and the yen, at three-month highs, saw the Nikkei sell-off nearly 2%. Several markets in the region lost over 1%, including Taiwan, India, Thailand, and Indonesia. Europe's Dow Jones...

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FX Weekly Preview: High-Frequency Data may Underscore Four Thematic Points

2020-01-06

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2020-01-06

Full liquidity returns to the markets gradually in the coming days, and the week ahead culminates with the US December employment report.  The highlights include the service and composite PMI readings,  and December eurozone and China's CPI.  The UK reports December PMIs,  November GDP, and industrial output figures.

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FX Daily, January 03: Geopolitics Saps Risk Appetite

2020-01-03

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2020-01-03

Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has threatened "severe retaliation" for the US attacked that killed an important head of a force within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. At the same time, reports indicate that North Korea's Kim Jong Un is no longer pledging to halt its nuclear weapons testing and has threatened to unveil a new weapon. Meanwhile, Turkish forces have reportedly entered Libya.

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FX Daily, January 02: Equities Start New Year with a Pop

2020-01-02

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2020-01-02

Overview:  Equities have begun New Year like, well, last year, with most Asia Pacific markets advancing, led by more than 1% gains in China, Hong Kong, and Thailand.  Only South Korea and Indonesian markets fell.  In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up almost 1% in late morning turnover.  US shares are trading higher as well, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 0.6%.

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The Turn

2019-12-28

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2019-12-28

The year is winding down quietly, and the last week of 2019 is likely to be more of the same.  The general mood of the market is quite different than a year ago.  Then investors had marked down equities dramatically amid fears of what was perceived as a synchronized downturn.  Now with additional monetary easing in the pipeline and renewed expansion of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank's balance sheets, risk appetites have been stoked.

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FX Daily, December 27: Equities Rally While the Dollar Slumps into the Weekend

2019-12-27

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2019-12-27

Overview:  Equities are finishing the holiday-shortened week on a firm note, encouraged by strong holiday internet sales in the US.  Most markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced except China and Thailand, while Japanese markets were mixed after weak industrial output and retail sales.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth consecutive week.

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FX Weekly Preview: Economic Data in the Holiday-Shortened Week

2019-12-23

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2019-12-23

The capital markets will turn increasingly quiet in the week ahead as the Christmas holiday thins participation. If this is the season of goodwill, investors are lapping it up.  Global equity markets are finishing a strong year on a high note.  Record highs were recorded in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600.  The MSCI Emerging Markets equity index is at its best level since August 2018. 

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FX Daily, December 19: Whiff of Inflation in the Air

2019-12-19

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2019-12-19

It is risky to read too much into the price action in holiday-thin markets, but inflation fears are beginning to surface. The price of January WTI is around $61, having tested $50 a barrel in Q3. The CRB Index made new highs for the year yesterday and is up almost 9% for the year. The US yield curve (2-10 year) has been steepening after being inverted for a few days in August, and now at nearly 29 bp, also is new highs for the year.

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FX Daily, December 18: Markets Turn Quiet Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

2019-12-18

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2019-12-18

Overview: The capital markets have turned quiet as the year-end positioning drives prices in lieu of fresh developments. Equities in the Asia Pacific region were narrowly mixed. The smaller markets in Asia performed better than the large bourses of Japan, China, and Korea, which eased. European equities are off to a firm start, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating near the record high set Monday.

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FX Daily, December 17: Sterling Drops as New Brinkmanship Begins

2019-12-17

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2019-12-17

Overview: Efforts by a UK Prime Minister emboldened by a strong electoral victory to ensure that trade negotiations with the EU are not extended as the divorce has encouraged further profit-taking on sterling. After testing the $1.35 area on the exit polls last week, sterling had returned to where it closed before the results were known near $1.3160.

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FX Daily, December 16: China Data Surprises to the Upside while Europe’s Manufacturing PMI Disappoints

2019-12-16

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2019-12-16

Overview: Despite better than expected Chinese data, and last week's investor-friendly developments, Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Australia led the advancing bourses with a 1.6% gain, its largest for the year despite the government revising down growth and wages. China, Taiwan, and Indian markets also moved higher.

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