Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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FX Daily, March 08: Equities Slump on Growth Concerns ahead of US Jobs

2019-03-08

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2019-03-08

Overview: A weak economic assessment in the Beige Book and an ECB that slashed growth forecasts have been followed by news of a nearly 21% slump in China's exports have marked the end of the dramatic equity rally that was seen in the first part of 2019 after the sharp losses late last year. 

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FX Daily, March 07: EMU Looks to ECB

2019-03-07

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2019-03-07

The ECB meeting is today's highlight. A dovish signal is expected. The euro remains pinned near its lows ahead it. The global equity market rally in January and February is faltering this week. Asian equities were mixed, but the Nikkei eased for the third consecutive session.

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FX Daily, March 6: The Dollar Index Extends Gains into the Sixth Consecutive Session

2019-03-06

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2019-03-06

Overview:  The capital markets are on edge.  The week's big events lie ahead.  The Bank of Canada meets today and the ECB tomorrow, followed by US (and Canada) employment data on Friday.  The equity markets are mixed.  While Japan and Korean equities eased, China's markets continue their tear. 

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Thoughts about the ECB and Euro

2019-03-06

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2019-03-06

draghi
Mario Draghi's term at the helm of the ECB is winding down. He will step down in October. It has not been an easy job. The light at the end of the tunnel in 2017 turned out to be another train in 2018. The eurozone enjoyed 0.7% quarterly growth every quarter in 2017. The ECB was able to outline an exit from its asset purchases. The debate began over sequencing and when the first rate hike could be delivered.

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FX Daily, March 05: Dollar Remains Firms as China Cuts Growth Target and Taxes, while EMU PMI Surprises on Upside

2019-03-05

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2019-03-05

Overview:  It is an eventful day, but the capital markets are taking it in stride.  Equity markets are mixed.  Asia may have been weighed down by China's shaving its growth target and announced around CNY2 trillion (~$300 bln) in tax cuts to support the economy, though Chinese stocks edged higher. 

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FX Weekly Preview: Dovish Hold by the ECB and Uptick in US Wages will Underscore Divergence

2019-03-04

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2019-03-04

The important events take place in the second half of the week ahead: the ECB meeting and the US employment report. A dovish hold by the ECB is the most likely outcome. US jobs growth is bound to slow from the heady 304k gain in January, but there won't be anything in it that lends credence to ideas that the world's largest economy is on the precipice of a recession.

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FX Daily, March 01: Could the Worst be Behind China and Germany? Or Hope Springs Eternal

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

Overview:  News that MSCI plans to substantially boost China's equity weighting in its indices and a better than expected Caixin manufacturing PMI and some easing of India-Pakistan tensions helped bolster the risk-taking appetite going into the weekend.  This lifting equity and weighing on bonds.  China's CSI 300 rose 2.2% for a 6.5% weekly gain. 

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FX Daily, February 28: Trump Walks Away from North Korea. Should Beijing Worry?

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

Overview:  News that the US-North Korean summit ended abruptly without an agreement spurred losses in equities and gains in the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. US President Trump willingness to walk away from the talks is important in and of itself, but it also sends a warning not to go all in on a US-China trade agreement that could also sour at the last minute.

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CNBC Clip: February 24 Brexit

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

We tried a CNBC hook-up in Asia via Skype on February 25.  I did not think there would be a clip, but I stumbled on it looking for something else.  Click here for the roughly 2.5-minute interview done from my apartment in NYC.  The discussion is on Brexit and sterling. 

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FX Daily, February 27: Dollar Trades Heavily, While Prospects of a Softer and Later Brexit Send Sterling Higher

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

Overview: As the North American session is about to begin, the markets await developments in the UK House of Commons where a vote is expected today on Prime Minister May's proposal to hold votes on around March 12 on the Withdrawal Bill and no deal. However, perceptions of a reduced likelihood of a no-deal exit continued to fuel sterling gains.

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FX Daily, February 26: Brexit Dilution Lifts Sterling, while Yesterday’s Equity Rally Fades, Powell Awaited

2019-02-26

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2019-02-26

Overview:  The increased likelihood that Brexit is delayed and the possibility of a second referendum is helping lift sterling.  As has been the case for most of the time since the June 2016 referendum, the prospects of a softer and/or later Brexit is understood as sterling positive.  The other key focus is US-Chinese trade. 

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A Bit Early to Call a Weak Dollar Policy, Strategist Chandler Says

2019-02-25

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Feb.25 — Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, and Kathryn Rooney Vera, head of global research at Bulltick, discuss how U.S.-China trade talks impact global currencies. They speak on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”

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FX Daily, February 25: Dollar Thumped on Confirmation of Tariff Delay while Stocks Advance

2019-02-25

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2019-02-25

Overview: The extension of the US-China tariff freeze had been telegraphed, but the confirmation is the single biggest driver of the day. Equities, led by a 5%+ advance in China, have rallied in Asia and Europe. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly 1-2 basis points higher.  Peripheral yields are lower.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead

2019-02-25

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2019-02-25

After a dismal end of 2018, investors are faring better through the first two- thirds of the Q1 19. Equity markets have recouped a good part of the late-2018 decline. Bond yields, however, have not returned to where they previously were. The tightening of financial conditions, which was both cause and effect of heightened anxiety among investors, and spooked some central bank have eased considerably.

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FX Daily, February 22: Markets Ending Week with A Whimper

2019-02-22

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2019-02-22

Overview:  The global capital markets are winding down what appears to be an inconclusive week quietly and on a mixed note.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is poised to snap a four-day advance but held on to a nearly 2% gain for the week.  European bourses are mostly higher, and although the weekly advance of around 0.5% may not be that impressive, Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has only fallen in one of the first eight weeks of the year for a 9.5% year-to-date...

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FX Daily, February 21: Aussie Slammed by Dalian Coal Embargo, While Firmer Flash PMI does Euro Little Good

2019-02-21

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2019-02-21

Overview: The US dollar is firm against most major and emerging market currencies. There is more optimism on US-Chinese trade as a series of understandings are drafted, and an extension past March 1 of the tariff freeze is reportedly in the works.

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Cool Video: Fox Business–Stocks and the US Consumer

2019-02-21

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2019-02-21

Marc Chandler Fox Business TV
I joined Varney and Company on Fox Business TV earlier today. Varney had liked by bullish call on stocks from the end of last year, but seemed dismayed that I have turned cautious. I suggested that the S&P are approaching a key area a little above 2800 that has capped in Q4 18.

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FX Daily, February 20: US-China Trade and Brexit Dominate Ahead of FOMC Minutes

2019-02-20

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2019-02-20

Overview:  The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies, but the strongest currency today is the Chinese yuan, following reports that US wants China to keep the yuan stable and not offset US tariffs with currency depreciation.  The second monthly decline in Japanese exports weighted on the yen.  In the UK, another Labour MP left, while there is speculation that a few Conservatives may defect today. 

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FX Daily, February 19: Investors Need Fresh Incentives

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

Overview: Activity in the global capital markets is subdued as investors await fresh developments. New wording for the Irish backstop apparently is being drafted. US-China trade talks resume. No decision has been made on US auto tariffs, but European and Japanese officials seem to be playing down the threat. 

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FX Daily, February 18: Dollar Drifts Lower

2019-02-18

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2019-02-18

Overview:  In quiet turnover, the US dollar slipped lower against most of the major currencies to start the new week.  The news stream is light and the US markets are closed today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up five of the past six weeks and extended its gains today.  Nearly all the equity markets in the region rose but India.

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