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Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Greece is Still in a Hot Spot

2016-01-25

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2016-01-25

Greek Prime Minister Tsipras is celebrating the one-year anniversary of this election.  He offered Greek voters an opportunity to replace him last summer, but they stuck with him. Many economic issues remain unresolved. Pension reform promises to be a flashpoint between the Tsipras government and the official creditors.    Although the G10 has eleven members, official …

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Recovery Pauses in Europe

2016-01-25

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2016-01-25

[unable to retrieve full-text content] Asia followed suit, extending the recovery seen in the last couple of sessions to end last week.  Equities rose as did oil prices.   The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 1.2%, and the Nikkei posted its first back-to...

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Week Ahead: Picking Up the Pieces

2016-01-24

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2016-01-24

Whatever force had gripped the global capital markets since the start of the year has been broken.   This simple characterization is rich.  It is not clear if or what macroeconomic considerations were driving the markets.  The markets had taken the unsurprising Fed rate hike in mid-December in stride. The dramatic moves in the market did not …

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Weekly Speculative Positioning before the Reversal

2016-01-23

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2016-01-23

The latest Commitment of Traders report that covers the four sessions through January 19 saw speculators anticipating the continuation of the current moves.  Of the sixteen gross positions we track, only five were in reducing exposures.  Last week there was only six increased exposures. With the benefit of hindsight, we know that something changed a day …

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FX Outlook: New Phase has Begun

2016-01-23

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2016-01-23

The first two and a half weeks of the new year saw persistent selling of equities, commodities, and emerging markets.  In the foreign exchange market, the dollar-bloc and sterling were crushed.  The yen was the single biggest beneficiary, and spe...

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Europe’s Third Challenge

2016-01-23

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2016-01-23

ECB President Draghi made clear at yesterday's press conference that new risks have materialized and the central bank's job to reach its mandate is far from over. Current efforts may not suffice to achieve its legal prescribed mandate. Monetary policy will be reviewed and reassessed at the next meeting in March, when new staff forecasts … Continue...

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-01-22

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2016-01-22

In the EM equity space, Russia (+5.9%), Colombia (+2.0%), and Thailand (+1.8%) have outperformed this week, while Qatar (-6.8%), UAE (-5.1%), and the Philippines (-3.7%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 0.1% this week...

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Collective Sigh of Relief Ahead of the Weekend

2016-01-22

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2016-01-22

Like a car ignition that finally catches after several attempts, the global markets are building on the recovery seen in North America yesterday.   Asian stocks rallied, with the Nikkei leading the way with a 5.9% rally.  More modest 1.25% gain...

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Two Important Reforms

2016-01-21

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2016-01-21

There have been two important reforms announced, one in the EU and other in the IMF, that many investors may have missed due to the carnage in the markets.  While the economic challenges that Europe faces remain potent, the refugee problem appea...

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Draghi Drives Euro Lower

2016-01-21

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2016-01-21

Disclaime

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Fragile Calm Ahead of ECB Meeting

2016-01-21

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2016-01-21

The Asian equity markets failed to retain the early gains that had at least partially been fueled by the US equities recouping half of their losses.  The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index lost about 1.7% and finished at new 3.5 year lows.    European markets are posting minor gains, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up about 0.25% … Continue reading »

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Cool Video: Canadian Dollar Discussion on BNN

2016-01-20

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2016-01-20

I had the privilege today to appear on Canada's Business News Network. It is a great source for information on the Canadian economy and markets.  I was interviewed by Michael Hainsworth. We discuss the Bank of Canada's decision not to cut rates...

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Great Graphic: Canadian Dollar Resilience in Face of 7% Drop in Oil

2016-01-20

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2016-01-20

This Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg, shows two-time series.  The white line is the premium the US government pays to borrow over the Canadian government for two years.  The yellow line the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.   Even th...

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Is Atlas Shrugging in Davos?

2016-01-20

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2016-01-20

The World Economic Forum is underway in Davos.  The global capital markets are off to one of their worst years ever,  the threat of terrorism hangs over us, like the Sword of Damocles, GDP growth, except in a few countries, is not keeping pace with population growth.   As  2500 rich, powerful, and famous (mostly) … Continue reading...

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Markets Resume New Year Slide

2016-01-20

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2016-01-20

The market meltdown is extending into the third consecutive week.  Once again, the attempt to stabilize has failed, and bottom pickers have been punished. It is easy to line up poor news developments, including IMF cutting world growth on the same day that the IEA warns of an extended glut in the oil market, the … Continue reading »

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Tomorrow’s News Today

2016-01-19

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2016-01-19

There are three important economic events tomorrow.    The UK will release its December employment report and November weekly earnings data.  The US reports December CPI.  The Bank of Canada meets, and is widely expected to be the first centra...

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Central Bank’s Dovish Tilt Will Weigh on Brazilian Assets

2016-01-19

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2016-01-19

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) Brazilian central bank President Tombini said it will take into account the IMF’s revised forecasts for a deeper recession when it meets this week to decide on policy. Sorry, but we don’t buy it. No central bank should ever be affected by IMF forecasts. Yes, the IMF has great …

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AIIB Launched, but Threat to Dollar Exaggerated

2016-01-19

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2016-01-19

The China-sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was formally launched over the weekend.  Many observers have seen it as a rival to the World Bank.  Others saw in another vehicle that would be used to facilitate the internationalization of the Chinese yuan.  We have consistently argued that these ideas are a serious exaggeration. News that AIIB …

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Collective Sigh of Relief in Capital Markets or Turnaround Tuesday?

2016-01-19

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2016-01-19

The relentless pounding that investors suffered in the first two weeks of the year has subsided.  It is too early to have much confidence that a turn is at hand.  By various measures, the sell-off had stretched the technical condition.     I...

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2016-01-18

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2016-01-18

EM ended last week on a sour note. The most important factor for global risk appetite has become China, with the Fed tightening cycle now on the back burner.  Our base case remains that China muddles through, but policymakers there need to commu...

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