Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Speculative Sentiment Shifts

2016-07-16

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2016-07-16

The combination of a robust US jobs report, speculation of bolder action by Japan, the possibility that the ECB drops the capital key to overcome the ostensible shortage of some core bonds (e.g. German bunds), and the anticipation of easier BOE policy appears to have generated a change in sentiment among speculators in the currency futures market.

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Great Graphic: Equities Since Brexit

2016-07-15

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2016-07-15

Since the UK voted to leave the EU, emerging market equities have outperformed equities from the developed markets. This Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg, shows the MSCI Emerging Market equities (yellow line) and the MSCI World Index of developed equities (white line).

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FX Daily, July 15: Sterling and Yen Remain Key Drivers in FX

2016-07-15

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2016-07-15

The US dollar is broadly mixed against the major currencies. The Swiss franc's 0.25% gain puts it at the top of the board, after sterling's earlier gains were largely unwound in late-morning turnover. The yen is the weakest major; extending its loss by 0.6%, to bring the weekly decline to more than 5%. The pre-referendum result high for the dollar was near JPY106.85. Today's high has been about JPY106.30. In emerging markets, we note that the...

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FX Daily, July 14: Will BOE Ease on May Day?

2016-07-14

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2016-07-14

Theresa May
After a nearly three weeks of turmoil following the UK referendum, there is now a sense of order returning to UK politics. Two elements of the new government are particularly relevant. First, May demonstrates strategic prowess by putting those like Johnson and Davis, who campaigned for Brexit, to lead the negotiations with the EU, while putting Tories who favored remaining in the EU in the internal ministries.

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Great Graphic: If You Think Sterling has Bottomed, Where may it Go?

2016-07-14

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2016-07-14

Many think sterling has bottomed. A number of technical factors point to potential toward $1.42. Fundamental considerations do not appear as supportive as technicals.

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BOE Surprises by Doing Nothing, but Tips August Action

2016-07-14

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2016-07-14

BOE neither cut rates not announced a new asset purchase plan. Sterling rallied hard. However, the BOE indicated an August ease and I look for sterling to pare knee-jerk gains.

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FX Daily, July 13: Sterling and Yen Momentum Slows

2016-07-13

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2016-07-13

The two main developments in the foreign exchange market this week in recent days has been the opposite of what has transpired over the past several weeks. Sterling moved higher quickly. The yen moved down just as fast. Over the past five sessions through late-morning levels, sterling has gained 2.5% while the yen has shed 2.8%.

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Three Developments in Spain

2016-07-13

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2016-07-13

Favorable initial ruling for Spanish banks that overcharged on mortgages. The EC may be lenient on Spain (and Portugal) for the excessive deficits in 2015. There is a window of opportunity for Rajoy to form a minority government.

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FX Daily, July 12: Easing Political Uncertainty Encourages Animal Spirits

2016-07-13

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2016-07-13

Further risk appetite means rising euro and weaker CHF. The SNB typically sustains such risk appetite phases with smaller FX interventions of around 300 million per day. Sterling is leading the new appetite for risk as one element of political uncertainty has been lifted. It is moving higher for the third consecutive session today; advancing by more than 1.5 cents to reach $1.3180.

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Why You Should Understand What is Happening with Italian Banks

2016-07-13

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2016-07-13

Italian banks shares have staged an impressive bounce over the past four sessions from beaten down levels. How Italy's banking crisis is resolved will shape the way the EC responds to banking resolution going forward. As you might expect, there is a German and French interpretation.

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FX Daily, July 11: Dollar Extends Gains

2016-07-11

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2016-07-11

The combination of the rebounding US job growth and gains in the S&P 500 to near record levels before the weekend is helping boost the US dollar against the major currencies, while the emerging market currencies are mixed. In addition, indications that Japan will put together another fiscal stimulus package and the Bank of England may cut rates late this week are helping global equities.

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Caixin Monthly Column: Brexit

2016-07-11

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2016-07-11

(Here is the latest monthly column I write for Caixin.  It is on Brexit and I wrote it as an email to my mother.  Here is the link.  The text follows) To: Mother, Date: July 4, 2016, Glad to see you figured out how to access your email account. I smiled when I saw your note in my inbox. Thank you, though I am not sure that Thomas Watson felt the same way when Alexander Graham Bell called him.

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New Wrinkle in European Bail-In Efforts

2016-07-11

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2016-07-11

European Court of Justice could rule on July 19 that private investors do not have to be bailed in before public money can be used to recapitalize banks. Italy stands to gain the most, at least immediately, from such a judgment. Italian bank shares recovered after initial weakness.

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Cool Video: Whirlwind Discussion; UK, Politics and the Dollar

2016-07-11

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2016-07-11

Shortly before I was on Bloomberg TV today, Leadsom withdrew from the Tory leadership context, leaving May, who favored remaining the EU, as the likely successor of Cameron. Leadsom had been trailing May even before her controversial weekend comments.

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FX Weekly Preview: Sources of Movement

2016-07-10

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2016-07-10

Electoral politics remains significant. BOE is likely to cut rates, while BoC may tilt more dovishly. US Q2 earnings season formally begins.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Speculators Still Don’t Believe in the Greenback

2016-07-09

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2016-07-09

Commitments of Traders July 05 Speculative Positions
Speculators reduced their Net long CHF position (against USD) from 10.9K contracts to 8.7K contracts. In five of the eight currency futures, we track, speculators covered their gross short exposure and added to their gross long exposure.

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North American Jobs Report and Implications

2016-07-08

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2016-07-08

There is something for everyone in today's US jobs report, and at the end of the day, it is unlikely to sway opinion about the direction and timing of the next Fed move. The greenback itself may remain range bound after the initial flurry. On the other hand, the disappointing but noisy Canadian data underscores the risk of a more dovish slant to the central bank's neutral stance next week.

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FX Daily, July 07: Sterling Bounces Two Cents, but Does not Appear Sustainable

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Amid a better if not strong risk appetite, sterling has rallied two cents from yesterday's lows near $1.28 to poke through the $1.30 level in the European morning. It was helped by an industrial production report that was better than expected. Industrial and manufacturing output fell 0.5% in May. This was around half of the expected decline after a strong April advance (2.1% and 2.4% respectively).

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Great Graphic: More Thoughts on Banks

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Italian banks have done worse that European banks. Italian banks outperformed Germany banks from end of H1 12 through H1 15. US banks and financials more broadly have outperformed Europe.

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Great Graphic: The Yuan’s Weakness

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Don't be fooled, the yuan has fallen more against its basket that against the dollar this year. It is not clear what China means by stable. Market forces appear to be moving in the same direction as officials wish.

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