Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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FX Daily, March 15: Greenback Softens Ahead of FOMC

2017-03-15

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2017-03-15

The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains as the market awaits the outcome of the well-telegraphed FOMC meeting. In recent weeks, the combination of data and official comments have swayed market, which had previously anticipated a hike in May or June.

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China’s NPC Ends with New Initiatives

2017-03-15

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2017-03-15

China will make its mainland bond market more accessible. As China's portfolio of patents grows it will likely become more protective of others' intellectual property rights. PRC President Xi will likely visit US President Trump early next month.

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FX Daily, March 14: Brexit Takes Fresh Toll on Sterling, While Dollar Firms more Broadly

2017-03-14

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2017-03-14

UK Prime Minister May got the parliamentary approval the courts ruled was necessary to formally trigger Article 50. It is not clear what UK she will lead out the EU. Scotland is beginning the legal proceedings to hold another referendum on independence. There is some talk that Northern Ireland, which voted to remain, might be allowed to rejoin the Republic of Ireland.

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Trump Administration Modifying Stance on Way to G20

2017-03-14

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2017-03-14

Confrontation with China has been dialed down. Criticism of the Fed has been walked back. There is less talk about the dollar. Employment data has been embraced.

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FX Daily, March 13: Bonds and Equities Rally, Dollar Heavy

2017-03-13

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2017-03-13

Hit by profit-taking ahead of the weekend, despite US jobs data that remove the last hurdle to another Fed hike this week, the greenback remains on the defensive. It has softened against all the major currencies and many of the emerging market currencies. The chief exception is those in eastern and central Europe.

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FX Weekly Preview: Succinct Views of Ten Events and Market Drivers: Week Ahead

2017-03-13

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2017-03-13

The week ahead is the busiest week of the first quarter. It sees four major central meetings, including the Federal Reserve which is likely to raise rates for the second time in four months. The Dutch hold the first European election of the year, and the populist-nationalist party remains in contention for the top slot. The week concludes with the G20 meeting, the first that the Trump Administration's presence will be felt.

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FX Daily, March 10: US Jobs Data: Deja Vu All Over Again?

2017-03-10

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2017-03-10

A week ago, after nine Fed officials had spoken, the market widely expected Yellen and Fischer to confirm that the table was set for a rate hike later this month. They did, and the dollar and US interest rates fell. Now, after a strong ADP jobs report (298k), everyone recognizes upside risk to today’s national report, and the dollar has lost its upside momentum against most major currencies, but the Japanese yen.

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Solid US Jobs Report in line with Expectations

2017-03-10

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2017-03-10

fred
The US jobs report was largely in line with expectations. February was the second consecutive month that the US economy created more than 200k jobs. It is the first time since last June and July. The 235k is just below the revised January 238k gain (initially 227k).

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FX Daily, March 09: Pre-ECB Squaring Lifts Euro in a Strong USD Context

2017-03-09

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2017-03-09

The euro tested the lower of its range near $1.05 in Asia before short covering in Europe lifted back toward yesterday's highs near $1.0575. However, buoyed by the upside surprise in the ADP estimate of private sector jobs growth, the dollar is firmer against most other currencies today. The US 10-year yield is up 20 bp this week.

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Dutch Election: Where Rubber Meets the Road

2017-03-09

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2017-03-09

Populism-Nationalism is not sweeping the world. The populist-nationalist party in the Netherlands will most likely not be a member of the next govt. There is little appetite for a referendum on EU. Nexit may be a clever slogan, but is highly improbable.

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FX Daily, March 08: Dollar Bid as Rates Firm

2017-03-08

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2017-03-08

The US dollar is moving higher against nearly all the other major foreign currencies today. As far as we can tell, the driving force remains interested rate considerations. US rates are rising in absolute terms and about Europe and Japan. The US 10-year yield is moving above the downtrend that has been in place since the day after the Fed hiked rates last December.

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A Few Thoughts about the US Labor Market

2017-03-08

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2017-03-08

work
The 94 mln people POTUS claims are not working is true but terribly misleading. What happened to agriculture a century ago is happening to manufacturing. New industries are less labor intensive than smokestack industries.

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FX Daily, March 07: Greenback Continues to Recover from the Late Pre-Weekend Slide

2017-03-07

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2017-03-07

The US dollar has continued to recover from the slide on what still largely appears to have been a buy the rumor sell the fact response to Yellen's speech just before last weekend. Yellen was the last of around 11 Fed officials that spoke last week, and nearly all but Bullard signaled readiness to hike rates at next month's meeting.

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FX Daily, March 06: The Dollar Gives Back More Before Consolidating

2017-03-06

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2017-03-06

The US dollar's pre-weekend pullback was extended in early European turnover but appeared to quickly run out of steam. The prospect of a constructive US employment report at the end of the week, especially given the steady decline in weekly initial jobless claims to new cyclical lows, underscores the likelihood that the Fed hikes rates next week. Bloomberg puts the odds above 90%, while the CME estimates a nearly 80% chance.

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FX Weekly Preview: Four Sets of Questions and Tentative Answers for the Week Ahead

2017-03-06

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2017-03-06

The week ahead features the ECB meeting and the US February jobs report. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets, Europe reports industrial production, Japan reports January current account figures, and China reports its latest inflation and lending figures. We frame this week's discussion of the drivers in terms of four sets of questions and offer some tentative answers.

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The Resilience of Globalization and the US Dollar

2017-03-04

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2017-03-04

strong
Populism-nationalism is not really a wave sweeping across the world. Where it succeeded was where a center-right party in a two-party system embraced part of the populist agenda. Center-right parties in Europe are not embracing key agenda for populist-naitonalist, but appear to be tacking to the right on domestic issues.

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FX Daily, March 03: Yellen and Jobs Report Last Two Hurdles to US Hike

2017-03-03

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2017-03-03

The US dollar is narrowly mixed as Yellen's speech in Chicago is awaited. The greenback's three-day advance against the euro and four-day advance against the yen is at risk. The dollar-bloc currencies, where speculators in the futures market had gone net long, continue to underperform.

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European Commission Offers 5 Scenarios

2017-03-03

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2017-03-03

Europe not dead
EC is committed to the future of Europe. Juncker presented five scenarios. Even if the populist-nationalist do not win the electoral contests, the national identity issues will continue to exert influence.

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FX Daily, March 02: Dollar Remains Bid

2017-03-02

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2017-03-02

The US dollar is bid against the major currencies as the combination the increased expectation of a Fed rate hike and the President's commitment to fiscal stimulus buoys sentiment. The dollar-bloc, where speculators in the futures market, have grown a net long position, are leading the move.

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Great Graphic: Fed’s Real Broad Trade Weighted Dollar

2017-03-02

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2017-03-02

To begin assessing the dollar's impact on the US economy, nominal bilateral exchange rates may be misleading.  From a policymakers' point of view, the real broad trade weighted measure is more important.  The Federal Reserve tracks it on a monthly basis.

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