by Lance Roberts
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| Markets aren’t under pressure just because of Iran. The bigger issue is stress building in private credit. Blackstone’s large private credit fund is facing record redemptions above its limits, following earlier cracks in the sector. That raises liquidity concerns and is weighing on technology stocks. Geopolitical headlines grab attention, but tightening credit and redemption pressure are the real risks investors should be watching right now. 📺Full episode: Catch Lance Roberts daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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1-27-26 Work Sucks…Or Does It?
2026-01-27
Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn take a hard look at how Millennials and Gen Z view work, career stability, and success in a rapidly changing economy. From corporate burnout and hustle culture to freelancing, side hustles, and remote work, the rules around employment are shifting fast.
0:00 – INTRO
0:20 – Baylor Hockey & Headphone Parties
3:28 – Fed Week preview
6:57 – Markets’ Rally & Earnings Preview
12:55 – The Evolution of Work
15:48 – The Gig Job Economy
16:51 – The Importance of Job Security?
18:40 – Lance & Jon’s First Jobs Stories
27:25 – Skill Sets for Success
30:25 – Teaching them Young – Dog Treats Door-to-Door
32:11 – Every Job is a Sales Job
34:08 – Looking for Work That is Meaningful
35:40 – Creation of Job Hopping Culture
37:42 – Retiring at 30? (Fallacies of the F.I.R.E.
12-11-25 Bifurcated Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next?
2025-12-11
The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point Wednesday, but the real story is the division behind the decision. For the first time since 2021, three Fed governors dissented–an uncommon break in policy unity that raises new questions about inflation progress, economic risk, and the path of monetary policy into 2026.
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why the Fed cut now, what the dissent signals, and how a split vote may affect market volatility, yields, and expectations for future rate moves. We also look at how past dissent has aligned with turning points in policy cycles and what this could mean for portfolios as financial conditions continue to ease.
Use the chapter markers below to jump to any topic.
0:00 – INTRO
0:19 – The Fed Giveth, Oracle Taketh Away
6:53 –
The DPI Link To Margin Debt
2025-12-08
A recent article by Simon White, via Bloomberg, discussed the rising cost of margin debt for investors. While his analysis below compares the cost of debt to GDP, we will also consider a more critical comparison to disposable personal income (DPI). Here is Simon’s point. “Yet, where history does raise a red flag is if …
Jobs Data From Alternative Sources May Drive Fed’s Next Move
2025-12-05
With the federal government shutdown delaying critical economic reports, the official jobs data remains incomplete. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September jobs report. However, the October report, originally expected earlier this month, remains in limbo, potentially permanently. The reason is due to the shutdown, as the BLS was unable to …
12-4-25 Fed Regime Change: Is Groupthink Finally Ending?
2025-12-04
Is the era of Fed groupthink finally coming to an end?
For over a decade, the Federal Reserve has operated under a powerful consensus framework—one where dissent has been rare and the Chair’s view has dominated policy outcomes. But shifting politics, rising dissenting votes, and increasing disagreements among FOMC members may signal a new regime change at the Fed.
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down:
0:00 – INTRO
0:19 – ISM Report Shows Abnormality of Markets
4:45 – Markets Prep for Year End Rally
9:33 – 2026 Economic Summit Tease
10:32 – Will Kevin Hassett Be the Next Fed Chairman?
13:25 – Is Fed Groupthink Ending?
16:13 – How a Split Fed Vote Could Affect Markets
18:02 – How About a Pre-2000 Fed?
24:08 – "Reserve Management" is Code for QE0:35 – It’s All About Liquidity
Speculative Bull Runs And The Value Of A Bearish Tilt
2025-10-20
The recent market crack certainly woke up the more complacent bullish investors. Of course, the complacency was warranted, given the recent market surge, conversations about “TINA” (There Is No Alternative), and how “this time is different.” But that is what a speculative bull run looks and feels like. However, deep inside, you know there are …
10-16-25 Guidance, Buybacks, & The Case For a Year-End Rally
2025-10-16
Near-term tape will be choppy and guidance-sensitive, especially for AI / Mag 7 stocks.
In this short video, Lance Roberts discusses how massive buybacks and year-end seasonality could still lift markets higher despite short-term volatility.
Watch the full episode:
Catch Lance Roberts daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Is QT On Its Last Lap?
2025-10-16
Chairman Powell spoke on Tuesday, addressing several topics. Of note was the following quote: “We may be approaching the end of our balance sheet contraction in the coming months.” The market interpretation is that QT is ending soon. As a reminder, QT, also known as quantitative tightening, has been in effect for over three years. …
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