Easy Money Seems like Cure All— Until It’s Not

2025-11-10

Don’t just react to pain — reflect on it. To overcome any obstacle, you must think deeply about how reality works and develop principles to guide your actions. That’s the only way to learn from your mistakes so you don’t repeat them. The pain is the signal! @TheDiaryOfACEO

2025-10-10

One of my principles is that if you’re worried, you don’t need to worry — and if you’re not worried, you need to worry.

That’s because worrying about what can go wrong will protect you and not worrying about what can go wrong will leave you exposed.

2025-10-08

The way I see it, any serious effort to solve the debt crisis will likely come too late.

It’s a timing issue. 2026 is a midterm election year — politicians won’t want to take the painful steps needed to improve our economic picture: cutting spending, raising taxes, and the like.

Any sort of bipartisan effort that comes after will both take time and be unlikely to be effective, because those commissions generally don’t work very well in practice.

That’s what it looks like to me. I’m curious to hear if you see things similarly.

@TheProfGPod

You can watch the full conversation here: _JLSAat94?si=AIGAM6BTiw7ZWCCC

2025-08-26

This simple animated video series answers the question, "How does the #economy really work?" Based on my practical template for understanding the economy.

This series breaks down economic concepts like #credit, #deficits and #interest rates, allowing viewers to learn the basic driving forces behind the economy, how economic policies work and why economic cycles occur.

This is Part 2, I hope you find this helpful.

2025-08-25

This simple animated video series answers the question, "How does the #economy really work?" Based on my practical template for understanding the economy.

This series breaks down economic concepts like #credit, #deficits and #interest rates, allowing viewers to learn the basic driving forces behind the economy, how economic policies work and why economic cycles occur.

This is Part 1, I hope you find these helpful.

2025-08-11

My view is that buying and holding real estate is not an effective investment strategy in our current economic environment, for a few reasons.

1) Real estate is more interest rate sensitive than it is inflation sensitive, so given our current circumstances it is likely to go down in real terms

2) It is a fixed asset that is easy to tax, which limits its impacts on your ability to diversify

3) Real estate is nailed down, so investing in it makes it more difficult to move money from one place to another

That’s my view, in a nutshell. I’m curious to hear if you agree.

#GovernmentDebt #debt #principles

2025-06-20

The Fed is in a very difficult position as it tries to balance the benefits of cutting interest rates with maintaining the value of money.

Right now, there is a great deal of uncertainty throughout the economy, along with a deterioration in sentiment.

Combine that with political pressures and the realities of our upcoming debt service payments, and you have this value of money conflict.

So changes in the monetary policy — especially if the cut is too aggressive — could lead to a period of great concern.

My advice: Watch the yield curve. If you see long rates rising alongside downward movement in the dollar and rises in gold, you’ll know there’s a movement out of bonds. Because the value of money matters a lot.

#raydalio #howcountriesgobroke #economics #markets

2025-06-16

The US is approaching the end of the long-term debt cycle. There are 3 levers we can pull to bring the deficit down to ~3% of GDP and mitigate our debt burdens: 1) reducing spending, 2) increasing taxes, and 3) lowering interest rates.

While we need to consider each of these levers, I recently discussed why reducing interest rates will ultimately have the greatest impact on the budget deficit with @the_IMF.

You can learn more about my proposed 3% 3-part solution to the US debt crisis in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, available now wherever books are sold.

#principles #howcountriesgobroke #economics