1929 vs. Now: The Difference is Where the Debt is

2025-10-29

The U.S.’s debts are on the edge of becoming unmanageable to the point where it could default if conditions are not changed.

But this problem isn’t a unique one. It has happened many times in history, which is why I believe studying the past is so important. The same cycles repeat over and over again, and there are important lessons we can learn from those experiences.

I recently met with Bloomberg @markets ahead of the UN Ocean Conference to discuss our debts, the possibility of global crisis, and the importance of investing in our oceans.

If you’re interested in learning more about our collective debt burden — and what steps we can take to solve these issues — I explain my thinking in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.

I hope you will read it and let me know your

2025-10-02

I can’t say exactly how effective Bitcoin is as a money, but it’s being perceived by many as an alternative money and so is worth paying attention to.

Money needs to be both a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth — and the latter is more important.

I doubt that any central bank will take it on as a reserve currency. That’s because all of the transactions are public, so there’s no privacy to it, and there’s a risk that in the future the code could be broken to make it less effective through government controls.

My personal approach is that I do have some Bitcoin in my portfolio, but not much. @TheMasterInvestorPodcast

You can watch the full conversation here:

2025-09-18

Ultimately, it all comes back to supply and demand.

Debt costs are higher in the UK than in the US because the British pound is no longer a reserve currency. It’s not an effective storeholder of wealth because people aren’t transacting in it like they do with US dollars.

Since many people around the world transact in dollars, that increases the demand and ultimately helps when it comes to servicing debt. @MasterInvestorChannel

You can watch the full conversation here: ?si=1nUp9HME9GFIrC95

2025-09-17

The increasing political polarization we’re seeing today isn’t anything new. It’s similar to what we saw in the 1930s, and it’s even something Plato wrote about a couple thousand years ago.

In democracies, people vote for their interests. And since people generally want more, politicians want to give it to them — and are willing to go into debt to make that happen.

Ultimately, things reach a breaking point where discipline is needed. People want somebody to get control of the government and make it work well.

But there are two versions as to who that somebody is.

In the 1930s, this led to the rise of fascism (for people who wanted a strong leader to lead a command economy) and communism (for people who wanted to redistribute opportunities).

Inevitably, these two clashing visions

2025-07-28

When great powers rise throughout history, they generally do so for the same reasons. These successful new orders are typically started by powerful revolutionary leaders doing four things:

1) Winning power by gaining more support than their opposition
2) Consolidating power by converting, weakening, or eliminating that opposition
3) Establishing systems and institutions that make the country work well
4) Creating systems that pick successors well over several generations

#principles #raydalio #history #empire

2025-07-14

I’m very happy to learn that my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle was selected by @barnesandnoble as one of their Best Business Books of the year.

The book conveys what I’ve learned over the past 50 years as a macro investor about the mechanics of how countries go broke — and what that means for the US today.

I hope you’ll read it and learn about it so that you understand what we’re dealing with, and what you can do to navigate the interesting times ahead.