Ray Dalio’s Update on U.S. Government Debt
2025-07-23
The basic picture has not changed — if the US doesn’t cut the deficit to 3% of the GDP, and soon, we risk facing an economic heart attack in the next three years.
The good news is that these cuts are possible. If we change spending and income (tax returns) by 4% while the economy is still good, the interest rate will go down as a result and we’ll be in a much better situation.
And we know this kind of balance is possible because it happened between 1991-1998.
My fear is that we will probably not make these needed cuts due to political reasons, and will have even more debt and debt service encroaching on our spending that will ultimately lead to a serious supply-demand problem.
This is Why the U.S. Deficit is so Alarming
2025-06-26
It’s critical that we bring our deficits down — and soon.
Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, debt problems pass through the system very quickly.
When there’s a lot of debt, like there is today, it has to be sold — and we’re now at a point where there aren’t enough buyers for that debt.
Historically, when that happens, bad things follow. So we need to get this problem under control and we need to do it fast.
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