A No Landing Outcome Is Assumed: Should It Be?
2026-02-19
Quite often, investors describe economic forecasts as a hard landing (recession), a soft landing (weak growth but no recession), or no landing (moderate to strong economic growth). As evidenced by the massive rotation toward economically sensitive sectors like industrials and materials and the significant underperformance of interest-rate-sensitive growth stocks, the no landing, or as it’s …
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Financial Nihilism & The Trap Young Investors Are Walking Into
2026-02-13
The article from the Wall Street Journal titled “Why My Generation Is Turning to Financial Nihilism” by Kyla Scanlon argues that Gen Z is embracing high-risk financial behavior out of despair and detachment. Of course, it is essential to recognize that Kyla, although well-intentioned, is a young twenty-something influencer with limited real-life experience, and sees …
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“Money Printing” By The Fed: Fact Or Fiction?
2025-11-07
I recently penned an article on “Money Supply Growth,” which elicited a very thoughtful response from Garrett Baldwin via Substack. He argued that labeling Federal Reserve operations as “money printing” is not rhetoric, but rather a reality. He points to Ben Bernanke’s 2010 interview, where Bernanke described how the Fed marks up digital accounts. But …
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Amazon And OpenAI: Yet Another Massive Investment In AI
2025-11-04
Yesterday morning, OpenAI announced a massive $38 billion strategic partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS). This deal highlights OpenAI’s diversification strategy amid explosive growth and capacity demands for training advanced models like ChatGPT. Before the deal, OpenAI relied 100% on Microsoft for its cloud infrastructure. In addition to diversifying its cloud servers, the deal may …
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Hindenburg Strikes: Omen Or False Alarm?
2025-11-03
Last Wednesday, for the first time since November 2021, a Hindenburg Omen hit. This gauge is triggered when an upward trend is met with a growing number of stocks hitting both new 52-week highs and lows. Such indicates bad breadth, weakening momentum, and indecision. If all five conditions listed below are met, the indicator gives …
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Liquidity Concerns Put An End To QT
2025-10-30
Two weeks ago, Jerome Powell stated, “We may be approaching the end of our balance sheet contraction in the coming months.” In simple terms, as we wrote HERE, he is prepping the market for a quicker end to QT than was previously expected. While Powell was cryptic about why, the answer is obvious: liquidity concerns. …
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The Fed Cuts Rates: What Comes Next?
2025-09-18
Not surprisingly, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at yesterday’s meeting. With the cut, the Fed Funds rate sits at 4.00-4.25%. While the market was nearly certain of a 25bps cut, it is less clear about what the road ahead holds for Fed policy. To help us start thinking about how policy may change at the upcoming meetings, we share a few comments from yesterday’s FOMC meeting.