by Lance Roberts
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A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
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What Inflation Alarmists Missed In Their Warnings
2025-12-19
Over the last couple of years, inflation alarmists such as Paul Tudor Jones, James Grant, and Jeff Gundlach have all said that inflation is returning with force. In different ways, they each stated that they would not own Treasury bonds due to the expectation that inflation would rise as the dollar declined due to the …
Does AI Capex Spending Lead To Positive Outcomes?
2025-12-12
As someone who views corporate finance through a pragmatic lens, I’ve been closely watching the current surge in capital expenditures (capex) tied to artificial intelligence (AI). The question I’m addressing here is this: when a company spends massive amounts of free cash flow and takes on increasing debt, in this case for AI CapEx, does …
Money Supply Growth: A Thesis With A Fatal Flaw
2025-10-24
Recently, MarketWatch ran a provocative headline: “When the world’s largest asset manager and the Bond King both agree: Run to gold, silver, and bitcoin.” The article highlighted how Larry Fink’s BlackRock and Jeffrey Gundlach, often dubbed the “Bond King,” see deficits and “money printing” as reasons for investors to escape fiat currencies and pile into …
Corporate Profits: A Reading Without Rose-Tinted Glasses
2025-10-10
If you want to understand where we are in the cycle, skip the noise and follow profits. Corporate profits are the lifeblood of investment, hiring, and market returns. Crucially, linkage to the real economy is very tight. In the national accounts (NIPA), the BEA’s “profits from current production” (with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) …
Data Centers And The Power Grid: A Path To Debt Relief?
2025-09-19
Could data centers and the power grid be America’s next “renaissance?” With the U.S. national debt exceeding $37 trillion and interest payments surpassing defense spending, many articles have been written about the “debt doomsday” event coming. Such was a point we made in “The Debt and Deficit Problem.” “In recent months, much debate has been …
Corporate Earnings Slowdown Signaled By Employment Data
2025-09-12
The latest employment data strongly warned of a potential corporate earnings slowdown ahead. This is the first time we have warned about the employment data and its impact on corporate earnings. In May, we penned “Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing.” wherein we stated: “Given the importance of consumption in the economy and that employment (production) must come …
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