Will a Solid US Jobs Report Dampen Expectation for a Fed Cut This Month?
2024-12-06
Overview: There are two broad developments in the G10 currencies ahead of the US jobs report. The euro, Swiss franc, sterling, Swedish krona, and the Canadian dollar are in tight ranges with a heavier bias. The others are off a 0.3%-0.7%. There have been various distortions, like storms and industrial action, which exaggerated the weakness of the US labor market, which does seem to be slowing but gradually. Today’s report should show a rebound, and next week’s headline CPI will likely rise for the second consecutive month. We expect these reports to dampen expectations for a Fed cut this month and lift the dollar. Next week, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Canada are expected to reduce rates again. Bond markets are mixed ahead of the US jobs report. Of
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Reaches overbought levels
2024-11-15
USD/CHF is in a strong uptrend which keeps making higher highs.
However it has reached overbought levels according to the RSI momentum indicator
This means bulls should be aware of the increased risk of pullbacks.
USD/CHF continues rising in its established uptrend but it has now reached overbought levels (above 70) according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator. When this occurs it advises long-holders not to add to their positions because of the increased risk of a pullback developing.
USD/CHF Daily Chart
According to technical analysis theory “the trend is your friend” which means it is better to trade in the direction of the dominant trend. As such, the odds favor more upside for USD/CHF. The RSI could continue to remain overbought or
EUR/CHF Price Forecast: Attempting a bearish breakout from a Triangle pattern
2024-11-12
EUR/CHF is trying to break out of a Triangle pattern.
If it succeeds it will probably lead to further downside towards the price objective for the pattern.
EUR/CHF is attempting to break out of a Triangle pattern it has formed over the last three months (see chart below).
EUR/CHF Daily Chart
A bearish close on Tuesday will indicate a decisive breakout has happened and suggest the start of a likely strong decline.
The market activity prior to the formation of the Triangle (Since May 27) further tips the odds in favor of a downside evolution.
If EUR/CHF breaks below the 0.9307 level (September 11 lows) it will further confirm an authentic bearish breakout, with the next target to the downside at 0.9132, the 61.8% Fibonacci extrapolation of the height of the