Monthly Archive: December 2018

China Going Back To 2011

2018-12-13

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2018-12-13

China PBOC Balance Sheet and CPI, Nov 2006 - 2018
The enormous setback hadn’t yet been fully appreciated in March 2012 when China’s Premiere Wen Jiabao spoke to and on behalf of the country’s Communist governing State Council. Despite it having been four years since Bear Stearns had grabbed the whole world’s attention (for reasons the whole world wouldn’t fully comprehend, specifically as to why the whole world would need to care about the shadow “dollar” business of one US investment “bank”) the...

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FX Daily, December 12: Markets Calm on May Day

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

The US S&P 500 failed to sustain the early upside momentum, but global equities are moving higher today, and there is some optimism on the trade front. Emerging market equities and currencies are also doing well today.

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The World’s Biggest Hedge Fund Is Getting Whacked, And Why “Moneyness” Matters

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

Swiss National Bank Stock Holdings
A few years ago the Swiss National Bank (SNB) - which traditionally held “monetary assets” like government bonds, cash and gold to back up the Swiss franc - decided to branch out into common stocks. This was a departure, but for a while a brilliant one.

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‘Paris’ Technocrats Face Another Drop

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

Eurozone Industrial Production, Jan 2013 - Nov 2018
How quickly things change. Only a few days ago, a fuel tax in France was blamed for widespread rioting. Today, Emmanuel Macron’s government under siege threatens to break its fiscal budget. Having given up on gasoline and diesel, the French government now promises wage increases and tax cuts.

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Older workers have ‘untapped potential’ to fill labour shortages

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

Switzerland’s workforce is in good shape but perhaps not for long, according to a new study by the consulting firm Deloitte. Tapping existing pools of talent including older workers and women are key to helping companies meet future demands for skilled labour.

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Are We in a Recession Already?

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

Compensation Employees, 2000 - 2018
The value of declaring the entire nation in or out of recession is limited. Recessions are typically only visible to statisticians long after the fact, but they are often visible in real time on the ground: business volume drops, people stop buying houses and vehicles, restaurants that were jammed are suddenly sepulchral and so on. There are well-known canaries in the coal mine in terms of indicators.

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The Big Picture: Paper Money vs. Gold

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

PBoC balance sheet
Numbers from Bizarro-World. The past few months have been really challenging for anyone invested in gold or silver; for me personally as well. Despite serious warning signs in the economy, staggering debt levels and a multitude of significant geopolitical threats at play, the rally in risk assets seemed to continue unabated.

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FX Daily, December 11: Fragile Calm Threatens to Break Out

2018-12-11

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2018-12-11

Indications that US and Chinese trade talks are proceeding, coupled with a dramatic reversal in the S&P 500 yesterday is helping stabilize the capital markets today. Asian equities were mixed, but the Greater China (China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan markets) alongside India and Australia posted modest gains.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg Economic Discussion

2018-12-11

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2018-12-11

Marc Chandler and Chris Wolfe on set of Bloomberg's Daybreak
I joined Chris Wolfe from First Republic Wealth Management on the set of Bloomberg's Daybreak to discuss market developments and the outlook for the US economy. We generally agreed that while the economy is slowing it is doing so from unsustainably strong levels.

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Swiss Government wants Public Consultation on EU Framework deal

2018-12-11

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2018-12-11

The Swiss government says it wants to carry out a public consultation before taking a final position on an “institutional framework” agreement negotiated with the European Union aimed at cementing future ties between Switzerland and its biggest trading partner.

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Economics Is Easy When You Don’t Have To Try

2018-12-11

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2018-12-11

Japan GDP, Quantitative and Qualitative Easing, Jan 2008 - Mar 2018
The real question is why no one says anything. They can continue to make these grossly untrue, often contradictory statements without fear of having to explain themselves. Don’t even think about repercussions. Even in front of politicians ostensibly being there on behalf of the public, pedigree still matters more than results.

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Gold and Silver Gained 2 percents and 3 percents Last Week While Stocks Dropped Nearly 5 percents

2018-12-11

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2018-12-11

Gold Silver Stocks
Gold acted as a safe haven last week and is again acting as a safe haven in December. It has performed well despite the rout in stocks in Ireland and globally. U.S. stocks including the S&P500 and Nasdaq were down nearly 5% last week, while gold was 2% higher and silver over 3% higher.

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The Prodigal Parent, Report 9 Dec 2018

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

Gold and Silver Price
The Baby Boom generation may be the first generation to leave less to their children than they inherited. Or to leave nothing at all. We hear lots—often from Baby Boomers—about the propensities of their children’s generation. The millennials don’t have good jobs, don’t save, don’t buy houses in the same proportions as their parents, etc.

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FX Daily, December 10: Lack of Closure Weighs on Sentiment

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

Investors angst over trade tensions and Brexit continue remains elevated, and poor Chinese and Japanese economic news played on global growth fears. Equities continue to slog lower. Bond yields are little changed, and the dollar is lower against most of the major currencies.

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ECB Preview: an end to net asset purchases

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

ECB Staff Projections, September - December 2018
With the ECB’s asset purchases due to end this month and forward guidance set to remain unchanged, a focus at next week’s policy meeting will be staff forecasts for growth and inflation. At its Governing Council meeting next week, we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to confirm that its asset purchases will cease at year’s end.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead: Don’t Skip Steps on Escalation Ladders

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

The drop in US yields and disappointing economic data weighed on sentiment and the dollar last week. Even weakness in equities, which had seemed to lend the greenback support, failed to do so at the end of last week. With the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation) below zero, employment at 50-year lows, and some fiscal stimulus still in the pipeline, the doom and gloom cant of a recession next year seems misplaced.

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Drones can be safely guided by mobile phone networks

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

Switzerland’s existing mobile telephony infrastructure is enough to guarantee the safety of drone flights in the country’s airspace, according to a study published Wednesday. Commissioned by Swiss air navigation service provider Skyguide and carried out by the Aviation Research Center Switzerland (ARCS), the study focused on the possibility of using mobile networks to control drones.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – December 2018 (VIDEO)

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

Monthly Macro Monitor December 2018
Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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Swiss investment management sector growing

2018-12-09

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2018-12-09

As the Swiss financial centre adjusts to the loss of banking secrecy and possible fallout from Brexit, a report highlights increased investment management as the sector's cornerstone. The report, released on Thursday by the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) and the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), outlines the emergence of investment management – the “management of investments for institutional and private clients” – as a key component of the Swiss...

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Swiss Post Office Expands Hospital Drone Delivery System

2018-12-09

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2018-12-09

The Swiss Post is expanding its drone delivery system, transporting laboratory samples between two hospitals in Zurich. Similar pilots have been conducted in Bern and Lugano. On Tuesday, the Swiss Post announced it is launching a one-year pilot project to use drones to send laboratory samples between the University Hospital of Zurich and the Irchel site of the University of Zurich, which are 2.5 kilometres apart.

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