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KOF Economic Barometer, June: Economic Outlook Improves Slightly

The KOF Economic Barometer rose again in June for the first time in three months. It increased by 1.7 points to 101.7 points, stopping its downward tendency in spring. The current Barometer value is now slightly above the long-term average of 100.0. Thus, the KOF Economic Barometer indicates a slightly above-average economic development in Switzerland. The tailwind for the Swiss economy is no longer as strong as during winter.

 

In June, the KOF Economic Barometer rose slightly to 101.7 points from 100.0 in May (100.0 in the initial publication in May). The indicator bundles for export development made a particularly clear contribution to this improvement. However, there have also been positive developments in domestic demand. In particular, the propensity to consume increased in June. In addition, the prospects for construction industry are more favourable. Minor impulses come from the manufacturing, banking, accommodation and food service activities sectors.

In the goods producing sectors (manufacturing and construction), the indicators for order backlogs, inventory reserves and intermediate goods purchasing point to a more positive development. However, the indicators for actual production development are dampening the positive picture somewhat.

Within manufacturing, signs of developments in the near future are mixed. The indicators for the wood and glass industry, the chemical, pharmaceutical and plastics industry and other goods.

KOF Economic Barometer, June 2018

(see more posts on Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer, )
KOF Economic Barometer, June 2018

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KOF Economic Barometer and reference time series: annual update

In September 2017, the scheduled annual update of the KOF Economic Barometer took place. The annual update of the Barometer concerns the following steps: redefinition of the pool of indicators that enter the selection procedure, update of the reference time series and renewed execution of the variable selection procedure. The updated reference series is the smoothed continuous growth rate of the Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) according to the new System of National Accounts ESVG 2010, released in early September 2017, which takes into account the release of the previous year’s annual GDP data by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. As a result of the indicator variable selection procedure, the updated KOF Economic Barometer is now based on 273 indicators (instead of 272 as in the previous vintage) from a pool of almost 500 potential indicator series. They are combined using statistically determined weights.

KOF Zurich
KOF Swiss Economic Institute defines itself as one of the leading economic “think tanks” in Switzerland. In this prospect, KOF (acronym for the German word "Konjunkturforschungsstelle", which means business cycle research institute) aims to play two roles, one as a mediator between a broader public (politics, society) and the research community, and one as a leading platform for economists, especially within Switzerland.
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